The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Brainbug]

2 minutes ago, Premium George said:

Only one person did. Just saying so, in future people don't say that everyone was predicting 4x.

 

I know it was just 1 person but in an open debate we can make general statements.

 

Can we ?

Edited March 4, 2019 by Brainbug

[Premium George]

3 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

I know it was just 1 person but in an open debate we can make general statements.

 

Can we ?

Of course. That's why I wrote second sentence to make clear it was not directed towards you.

[terrestrial]

Question: at which weekday we get usually the earliest theater count estimates?

[TalismanRing]

2 hours ago, TMP said:

WoM for Captain Marvel is gonna be incredible going off of social media reactions. Wouldn’t even rule out a 4x multiplier 

I'd rule it out. 

 

It's not Christmas and it's not Summer and it's opening will be huge (looking like ($150m+) in a Franchise that likes to come out opening weekend

[TMP]

It has an entire month to itself, I can’t remember the last time that happened yo one of these films. Unless Capt. Marvel skews a lot older than I’m expecting, Us will be targeting a completely different audience.

[Brainbug]

3 minutes ago, TMP said:

It has an entire month to itself, I can’t remember the last time that happened yo one of these films. Unless Capt. Marvel skews a lot older than I’m expecting, Us will be targeting a completely different audience.

 

Black Panther basically had 2 months for itself. It still didnt come near a 4 multi even with amazing WOM and the film beeing a cultural phenomenon.

 

When you open as huge as these MCU blockbusters do the possibility of a 4 multi gets slimer and slimer. And should CM open with 150M which im expecting, a 3 multi for a 450M total is already outstandingly good.

[charlie Jatinder]

2 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

Black Panther basically had 2 months for itself. It still didnt come near a 4 multi even with amazing WOM and the film beeing a cultural phenomenon.

 

When you open as huge as these MCU blockbusters do the possibility of a 4 multi gets slimer and slimer. And should CM open with 150M which im expecting, a 3 multi for a 450M total is already outstandingly good.

Pointing that out, say we take a Sunday bit down and remove Thursday Preview, a true normal FSS of around $170mn. Black Panther was something around 4.11x for the multi.

[TalismanRing]

28 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

Question: at which weekday we get usually the earliest theater count estimates?

I think Wed is the actual count

 

BOM already has it estimated for 4,100 and when it's that huge a few hundred more or less doesn't much matter

[Menor the Destroyer]

If the world premiere amps up night sales then this could finally have a Fandango day greater than BP.

[TalismanRing]

1 minute ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Pointing that out, say we take a Sunday bit down and remove Thursday Preview, a true normal FSS of around $170mn. Black Panther was something around 4.11x for the multi.

It would be 3.929 since you'd also have to remove $32m from the total so 668/170

 

 

[Eric the Minion]

5 minutes ago, TMP said:

It has an entire month to itself, I can’t remember the last time that happened yo one of these films. Unless Capt. Marvel skews a lot older than I’m expecting, Us will be targeting a completely different audience.

Black Panther had the exact same thing. The first direct comp was Tomb Raider, and that came out a month later (I guess you could also argue something like Wrinkle in Time took away some families, but let's just use Tomb Raider for the time being), and made nothing. So if we're talking direct competition that made solid money, it's Ready Player One, which is about a month and a half.

 

And despite the lack of competition and rave WOM, Black Panther only managed 3.46x. Keep in mind, this is the highest MCU multiplier thus far.

 

On weekend 5, the same weekend as Tomb Raider, Shazam will come out. And...yeah, it's gonna at least double Tomb Raider's weekend by a comfortable amount, maybe even triple if WB manages to pull off their last-minute marketing push.

 

Even to a lesser extent, Dumbo will take away some (obviously not by a whole lot, but it's likely to make more than what Wrinkle in Time generated last year) of the family audience Captain Marvel would have.

 

Simply put, even if this garners Oscar buzz a la BP, I can't see a scenario where it reaches a 4x.

[terrestrial]

2 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

I think Wed is the actual count

BOM already has it estimated for 4,100 and when it's that huge a few hundred more or less doesn't much matter

Thank you a lot!

I meant the general estimates.

BOM does release them usually Thursday afternoon their time, but I think sites like BoxOfficeReport, ... had in the past (partl) started earlier

A lot of people at the social media sites seem not to be aware how cineams do the schedule of their actual and future film slate (slate correct? Their program?), hence  why I am thinking about the earliest estimates (for a bulk of the movies, some data always will be late)

[charlie Jatinder]

3 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

It would be 3.929 since you'd also have to remove $32m from the total so 668/170

 

 

That $32mn would have come to the total gross anyways. What I was trying to say that when we put multi(s) of these tentpoles, we tend to ignore the frontloaded-ness of the previews.

 

[Brainbug]

15 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

That $32mn would have come to the total gross anyways. What I was trying to say that when we put multi(s) of these tentpoles, we tend to ignore the frontloaded-ness of the previews.

 

 

Yes, but thats a what-if scenario. Its been the norm for years now that we count the OW as Thursday Previews - till end of business Sunday night and thats also the way we should work with the multipliers here since the studios use it that way.

[Mumen Rider]

There's no way Captain Marvel pulls anywhere close to a 4x multi; Black Panther couldn't manage it and it was everywhere on social media, no joke. Memes, dances, challenges about the movie flooded my feed for at least a whole month following its release. I don't think Marvel Studios will ever replicate anything on that level again. Speaking purely on its impact on the western zeitgeist, not even Infinity War could match it.

 

Let's just be happy if it does 3x and not get wild with our expectations. $500-$520m DOM is the ceiling for me.

[MrGlass2]

$200M OW and x4 multiplier would mean that CM ends #2 all-time domestic. It could happen.

35 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

On weekend 5, the same weekend as Tomb Raider, Shazam will come out. And...yeah, it's gonna at least double Tomb Raider's weekend by a comfortable amount, maybe even triple if WB manages to pull off their last-minute marketing push.

Shazam will do that easily. Not that it matters much for CM this late in the run.

[charlie Jatinder]

18 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

Yes, but thats a what-if scenario. Its been the norm for years now that we count the OW as Thursday Previews - till end of business Sunday night and thats also the way we should work with the multipliers here since the studios use it that way.

Bro, I am not saying to change anything. I am just saying that while analysing, let's give a bit credit to tentpoles in multis because they have inflated previews.

[Brainbug]

12 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Bro, I am not saying to change anything. I am just saying that while analysing, let's give a bit credit to tentpoles in multis because they have inflated previews.

 

I was not in any way trying to attack you. Im not a native english speaker so sorry if my post came along a bit aggressive?

 

Also, i see the method a bit critical by myself. Pre 2013/14 the Thursday midnights were actually - midnight showings. Since then the Previews begin earlier and earlier and when i see a movie opening at 4 pm on a Thursday and that gets counted into the Friday total, im laughing really hard. But thats just how it is.

[FlashMaster659]

MT

 

2019-03-04 15:00:23.265491 UTC
1	27.1%	How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
2	16%	Captain Marvel
3	14.2%	Tyler Perry's A Madea Family Funeral
4	6.8%	The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part
5	4.5%	Alita: Battle Angel

[ChipDerby]

21 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Bro, I am not saying to change anything. I am just saying that while analysing, let's give a bit credit to tentpoles in multis because they have inflated previews.

 

Any amount a tentpole makes in previews could in theory have been made during the weekend. You can't just "exclude" the amount and say OK!