Weekend Actuals: 36.2 M ALIEN: COVENANT | 34.7 M GOTG II | 11.7 M EVERYTHING, EVERYTHING

[junkshop36]

I'd just like to see Scott come up more original ways for the characters to be in peril and get killed. 

 

There's got to be a way to put people in danger and for some of them to die with out continuing to use the same old tired horror tropes/cliches. 

[junkshop36]

20 minutes ago, trifle said:

 

I would love to see your list of smaller films.  I like movies, weekly or near weekly, and this summer is discouraging.

 

 

Seriously? I guess it might depend on who taught your history class.  It was a big deal in our class. And I bet this does very well in the UK.

 

 

Yea, it probably has to do with where you live. I'd never even heard of the events at Dunkirk before this movie was announced and I always enjoyed History class lol 

 

I've also been to the WW2 museum here in New Orleans and I don't remember seeing anything about it. 

[somebody85]

12 hours ago, The Panda of the Caribbean said:

Rank your most anticipated movies of (the rest of) the summer

1. Detroit
2. Dunkirk
3. War for the Planet of the Apes
4. It Comes at Night
5. Pirates 5
6. Wonder Woman
7. The Dark Tower
8. Atomic Blonde
9. Baywatch
10. Baby Driver

I'll play.

1) Pirates Of The Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales
2) Spider-Man: Homecoming
3) The Mummy
4) War For The Planet Of The Apes

5) It Comes At Night
6) Dunkirk
7) Detroit
8) Baby Driver
9) Wonder Woman (if the reviews are good)

10) The Dark Tower (same)

Probably won't see in theaters unless super bored: Baywatch, Transformers: The Last Knight, Cars 3, Despicable Me 3, Valerian And The City Of A Thousand Planets, Atomic Blonde, Annabelle: Creation

Then super excited for IT in September.

[marveldcfox]

9 hours ago, Celedhring said:

Interstellar was just ok. Nolan should just move on.

Other than the score the movie was awful. But funny thing is that the score was a rip off of Philip Glass's Koyaanisqatsi. Therefore, I have no respect for that movie and people involved with that.

[grim22]

3RD UPDATE, Saturday 11:25 PM: Disney/Marvel’s Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 came back strong on Saturday with an estimated $15.3M, +74% to a point where some analysts thought for a second it would overtake 20th Century Fox’s Alien: Covenant which fell 21% from Friday with $12M today. Alien: Covenant is still on top for the weekend with an estimated $36.1M, but now it’s the third highest debut in the series behind Prometheus ($51M ) and Alien vs. Predator ($38.3M). GOTG2 is just under $35M in its third weekend. Running cume is poised to be $301.7M.

 

 

CinemaScore breakdown for Covenant shows 69% males to 31% females with no one giving the sequel any As (except for 7% who gave the pic an A- for Katherine Waterson’s performance).  Fifty-nine percent bought tickets because it’s Alien movie and they gave it a B. Twenty-two percent came because of Ridley Scott, grading Covenant a B+.

 

 

MGM/Warner Bros.’ Everything, Everything dipped 9% on Saturday from Friday with $4.3M sending its opening to $11.6M. 20th Century Fox’s Snatched is next with $7.8M in fourth during its second frame for a running cume of $32.9M while Fox’s Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul is filing fifth right now with $7.1M over three days after a $3M Saturday

[grim22]

Alien is going to end up struggling to maybe 80M by the looks of it. Seems to be getting very divisive reactions.

[marveldcfox]

Been saying that this will be extremely frontloaded. Won't match its budget in North America. Fox will have a meeting with Ridley on Monday. And I can bet Ridley won't be pleased one bit. 

[Dementeleus]

6 minutes ago, marveldcfox said:

Been saying that this will be extremely frontloaded. Won't match its budget in North America. Fox will have a meeting with Ridley on Monday. And I can bet Ridley won't be pleased one bit. 

 

What does Ridley care, at this point? For that matter, the budget was apparently kept low enough that it's gonna be a modest success regardless -- not to mention continuing to sustain a long and profitable on-going franchise for Fox. 

[aabattery]

18 minutes ago, grim22 said:

3RD UPDATE, Saturday 11:25 PM: Disney/Marvel’s Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 came back strong on Saturday with an estimated $15.3M, +74% to a point where some analysts thought for a second it would overtake 20th Century Fox’s Alien: Covenant which fell 21% from Friday with $12M today. Alien: Covenant is still on top for the weekend with an estimated $36.1M, but now it’s the third highest debut in the series behind Prometheus ($51M ) and Alien vs. Predator ($38.3M). GOTG2 is just under $35M in its third weekend. Running cume is poised to be $301.7M.

 

 

@DeeCee

[23IsEverywhere]

Looks good for Guardians.  It's a better jump than CA:CW.  This means that with CW numbers from this point on GOTG2 will hit $268m.  My guess would be $270m as a final number.

[XO21]

Can GOGT leap to number one?

[aabattery]

5 minutes ago, XO21 said:

Can GOGT leap to number one?

 

There's a non-zero chance it happens. This is a shitty metric to go by, but they've underestimated GOTG the last two weekends so if it follows that and gets higher actuals while A:C gets lower ones, it might happen. I'd say it's pretty unlikely though.

 

Holding out hope though.

[Talkie]

8 minutes ago, XO21 said:

Can GOGT leap to number one?

 

Maybe when the actuals come in it will. Though I've no doubt that the fudge will be strong with Fox on Monday afternoon. 

[Biggestgeekever]

Not to be a debbie downer, but if A:C has the legs I'm expecting off a $36M weekend, I have doubts about the future of the franchise.

[The Futurist]

Audiences recognize Quality when they see it.

[DeeCee]

35 minutes ago, aabattery said:

 

@DeeCee

In the immortal words of Lleyton Hewitt. 

 

COME ON. 

 

The odds are better than 12% now. 

Edited May 21, 2017 by DeeCee

[BadAtGender]

I think I said a couple days ago that I'd take a check and see what sort of weekly drops GotG2 needs to get to get to certain thresholds.

 

For those who don't know, I've set up a really simple, stupid projector. It takes the most recent week and then applies a static drop for the next sixteen weeks to generate a total. This, obviously, isn't realistic, because of holidays and whatnot, but it does provide a bit of an overall guide. And because I'm looking at the weekly totals rather than weekends, it evens out some of those fluctuations.

 

So, with that said, here's what the projector tells me going off of GotG2's 83.58m second week.

 

To become the second biggest MCU film, edging just ahead of AOU, it would need 30% drops from here on out. Since we've already got two-ish days in the bank for the new week and it's looking like the drops aren't going to be that good, we can chalk that up as unlikely, still, that's what it would need to get there.

 

However, to get the crown for biggest non-Avengers film (ahead of IM3) it would need drops at or very slightly better than 37%. (To say how close 37% would be, after 16 more weeks, it would be less than 200k short.) 37% drops would definitely get it ahead of CACW.

 

About 38-39% drops get it to 400m. And flat 40% drops edge it past $390m.

 

42% drops are enough for $380m. 44% for $370m. In both cases those drops would put it a few million past those marks, so there's some wiggle room to have very slightly larger drops.

 

47% drops get it just above $360m.

 

If it takes 50% hits from here on out, it still gets to $350m.

 

It would need to start falling 56% or more each week to fall below GotG1. So while there might have been some concern of it ending up short despite the larger opening, it's looking in good shape to get well past that.

 

Friday's number was down about 47%. Saturday's drop at least from Deadline is a bit better, but we can probably expect it's going to hit somewhere in the 360-380 range. Pretty damn solid, and in a good position to remain the #1 movie of the summer, and maybe even the #3 of the year.

[DeeCee]

1 hour ago, Tele Came Back said:

 

What does Ridley care, at this point? For that matter, the budget was apparently kept low enough that it's gonna be a modest success regardless -- not to mention continuing to sustain a long and profitable on-going franchise for Fox. 

The get to add another movie to the box set and re-release it. 

 

The Covenant Collection. 

Edited May 21, 2017 by DeeCee

[Talkie]

9 minutes ago, DeeCee said:

The get to add another movie to the box set and re-release it. 

 

The Covenant Collection. 

 

Didn't Scott say that he had four sequels planned, only to whittle that down to two? After this, Fox will probably pull Blomkamp's script out of the bin and give Sigourney a call. 

[a2k]

12 Sat would be a 7-8% bump from 11.15 true Friday and would give a 35-36 weekend based on how Sun does.

 

Even if Sat comes in a bit higher with a 10% bump from true Friday,

15.35 + 12.25 + 9.0 (-26.5%) = 36.6

 

with a 36.6 ow A:C still needs a 2.46x multi to get 90 dom (close to PRTHEUS's 2.5x).

I don't think it will happen. Even Mem day weekend imo won't salvage much.

2.35x gives 85+ dom.

 

OS should show similar legs.

Would need 190 OS to do about 275 WW.

 

Going by the 97 budget, 250+ is good, but not good for the franchise.