June 23-25 Weekend Thread | TF5 45M, Cars 3 24.0, Wonder Woman 24.9 (10th highest 4th weekend of all time and biggest 4th weekend of 2017)

[baumer]

Just now, titanic2187 said:

oscar will lose their prestigious in just one second 

 

Yes because so many great films have actually won best picture like Shakespeare in Love and the artist and then there's been a tons more great ones nominated like the reader. Yeah the Oscar is just full of prestige. The Oscars are bought plain and simple and it's been proven time and time again. If you have the coin and you grease the right pockets you will get nominated and or win. And that's a fact. I'm not saying that there aren't some great films that have won but it's still all depends on your campaign.

[franfar]

3 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Predictions for next weekend:

 

Despicable Me 3: 90M

Baby Driver: 15M 3 day/20M 5 day

Transformers: 14.7M

Wonder Woman: 14M

Cars 3: 12M

The House: 6M

47 Meters Down: 4.4M

Pirates of the Caribbean: 3M

The Mummy: 2.5M

The Beguiled: 2M

 

Maybe The Beguiled can get above The Mummy? It had a great PTA this weekend.

DM3 will go well over 100m OW

[grim22]

TF5 will be the first Transformers movie to not have any 20M days. That's crazy. Didn't come close to 20M either.

 

Getting somewhat crazy here, but is there a shot that Wonder Woman can have 3 weekends at second? Will need Transformers to fall 60% next weekend and hold 30%. Didn't think it would beat Cars on this weekend, but that will most likely be the case when Actuals seeing how Cars has been given a 11% Sunday drop

[KeepItU25071906]

6 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

 

Wonder Woman: 14M

You gave only -45% drop for WW? What happened with you? You finally have good mood today?

[WrathOfHan]

4 minutes ago, KeepItU25071906 said:

You gave only -45% drop for WW? What happened with you? You finally have good mood today?

I gave it a 45% drop this weekend  

[titanic2187]

22 minutes ago, Daxtreme said:

Daily Domestic Chart for Sunday June 25th, 2017

← Previous Chart

Chart Index

 

		Movie	Distributor	Gross	Change	Thtrs.	Per Thtr.	Total Gross	Days
1	(1)	Transformers: The Last Knight	Paramount Pictures	$14,010,000	-20%	4,069	$3,443	$69,095,489	5
2	(3)	Cars 3	Walt Disney	$8,308,000	-11%	4,256	$1,952	$99,882,893	10
3	(2)	Wonder Woman	Warner Bros.	$7,750,000	-23%	3,933	$1,971	$318,305,158	24

    Cars 11% WW 23% ??   I think it's gonna be the other way around 

what give them so much of confidence? 

[grim22]

Next weekend will see great holds. It is effectively a 5 day weekend. I think WW matches or exceeds the 3 day of this weekend over 5 days.

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, grim22 said:

Next weekend will see great holds. It is effectively a 5 day weekend. I think WW matches or exceeds the 3 day of this weekend over 5 days.

Not really. A lot of movies are gonna get severe theater cuts with three new movies getting 3,000+ theaters (even if Despicable Me 3 is the only one most theaters are guaranteed to book on more than one screen).

[TheMovieman]

28 minutes ago, Daxtreme said:

Daily Domestic Chart for Sunday June 25th, 2017

← Previous Chart

Chart Index

 

		Movie	Distributor	Gross	Change	Thtrs.	Per Thtr.	Total Gross	Days
1	(1)	Transformers: The Last Knight	Paramount Pictures	$14,010,000	-20%	4,069	$3,443	$69,095,489	5
2	(3)	Cars 3	Walt Disney	$8,308,000	-11%	4,256	$1,952	$99,882,893	10
3	(2)	Wonder Woman	Warner Bros.	$7,750,000	-23%	3,933	$1,971	$318,305,158	24

    Cars 11% WW 23% ??   I think it's gonna be the other way around 

 

Wouldn't surprise me if they overestimate the Sunday drop. Again...

[Chaz]

$82 million until WW hits $400m. Going to be a nail biter.

[GiantCALBears]

3 minutes ago, grim22 said:

Next weekend will see great holds. It is effectively a 5 day weekend. I think WW matches or exceeds the 3 day of this weekend over 5 days.

Going to start shedding screens at a bigger rate due to TF5 still being in its opening two weeks when DM3 comes out. 

[TheMovieman]

1 minute ago, Chaz said:

$82 million until WW hits $400m. Going to be a nail biter.

 

If it even sniffs it, Warner will hire The Accountant and make it happen.

 

Edited June 25, 2017 by TheMovieman

[commonsense88]

44 minutes ago, MikeQ said:

With weekend estimates, Wonder Woman has officially joined the 3+ multiplier club, sitting at a multiplier of 3.08 after only 4 weekends. That seems incredible looking back - I don't think anyone expected this.

 

It needs to hit ~$365 million to best the multipliers of GOTG (3.53) and Spider-Man (3.52), to have the best comic book film multiplier of the modern era.

 

If Wonder Woman can hit ~$369 million, it would also be the best multiplier for a $40M+ opener since Batman in 1989. 

 

GOTG Vol. 2 also sits at a strong 2.60 multiplier off a huge $146.5 million opening weekend.

 

 

If you don't include Thursday 17 mil preview , and go by true weekend GOGT2 OW 129.5$.Looks like it will hit a 3x multi at 388.5. It would be cool to see a graph that shows how much previews throws off multipliers making them look like they have worst legs than they actually do.

 

For instance BATB W/O 16 .3 MIL Thurs prev included has true OW 158.45 and a multi of 3.18

 

[Spidey Freak]

5 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

what give them so much of confidence? 

 

They don't. They just wanted to stay ahead of Wondy for the outlets covering the estimates (also see Rogue One vs. Hidden Figures in January).  

[Chaz]

1 minute ago, TheMovieman said:

 

If it even sniffs it, Warner will hire The Accountant and make it happen.

 

Labor Day expansion might get it. All depends how it fares throughout July.

[grim22]

Just now, commonsense88 said:

If you don't include Thursday 17 mil preview , and go by true weekend GOGT2 OW 129.5$.Looks like it will hit a 3x multi at 388.5. It would be cool to see a graph that shows how much previews throws off multipliers making them look like they have worst legs than they actually do.

 

For instance BATB W/O 16 .3 MIL Thurs prev included has true OW 158.45 and a multi of 3.18

 

 

That is a fools errand. If people watched something on previews, they would have watched it over the weekend anyway. Separating it out makes no sense.

[filmnerdjamie]

There is no way there isn't any fudge in the recipe with that $69M estimate (given Paramount being... Paramount). Get the fuck outta here.

 

Also I'm with WrathofHan. I see sub-$100M for DM3 next weekend. It's a Part 3 following the tradition of the solid debut blockbuster that surprises everyone followed by the "HOLY SHIT, GET THE HELL OUTTA ITS PATH!" monster sequel. Countless examples: Batman Begins, Pirates, Shrek, First Blood, etc. The third installment always takes a dip (bigger than the original film but nowhere near the second). But the only thing is Minions (while was a spin-off/prequel) kinda served BO-wise as a third installment in that tradition (talking strictly domestically).

 

So... I have to wonder if DM3 will instead like a fourth installment, a la Shrek Forever After.

[TheMovieman]

1 minute ago, Spidey Freak said:

 

They don't. They just wanted to stay ahead of Wondy for the outlets covering the estimates (also see Rogue One vs. Hidden Figures in January).  

 

Be nice if Warner played hard ball and not underestimate WW's Sunday, which they have constantly done since its OW.

[grim22]

4 minutes ago, Chaz said:

$82 million until WW hits $400m. Going to be a nail biter.

 

It will get to around 380-385M even with worst case drops. Pushing for that last 15-20M is the hard part - the wild cards are Dunkirk and Annabelle which can make it reach a bit higher. If it gets to 395M on its own, WB will push it over for sure.

[filmlover]

I have Despicable Me 3 at a $92M weekend next weekend, which would actually be great given that Minions seemed to rub a lot of people the wrong way and the marketing hook for this one (Gru has a twin brother) is eh.