5-day Weekend #s: DM3 99M, BD 29.97M, WW 24.07M, TF5 24.05M, Cars 3 14.2M, House 11.9M

[Elessar]

14 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

Yes, of course.  DM3 should have increased by 20% from true Friday.  WW should have gone up by 20% more and so on.  

 

With 6m WW would be up 38%, which would be a slightly larger saturday increase than last week. The week before it went up 43%. The deeper you get into the summer, the smaller the increases (and also smaller monday dips). From where i am, this looks like a pretty normal July saturday to me. 58% sat jumps, like you are saying, would definitelly not be normal for this season....

[YM!]

I'm actually starting to think Incredibles 2 has a legitimate shot of doing $500M domestic.

[narniadis]

Yep, totally 100% wrong on DM3.... 

 

Ugh. Glad to be wrong on Baby Driver as well though so it balances out. Lol

 

And @YourMother considering the OWs would be similar it wouldn't surprise to see DM3 get a gross close to Shrek 4. 

[cannastop]

1 minute ago, YourMother said:

I'm actually starting to think Incredibles 2 has a legitimate shot of doing $500M domestic.

Why, when not even Finding Dory could do that?

[DAR]

It doesn't guarantee 500 but Incredibles is one of the few Pixar sequels people do want.

[a2k]

I think the 5-day will be,

29.2 + 24.5 + 23.5 (-4%) + 19 (-19%) + 16.8 (-11.5%) = 113

 

DM2 had a 143 5-day and 368 dom. That's 2.57x multi off the 5-day.

 

2.42x off the 5-day gives DM3 273.5 dom. Though 273.5 also means 3.4x+ off the 3-day OW which imo is optimistic.

Boss Baby did 3.46x as an original. Smurfs and Lego Bat are at 3.38x and 3.32x respectively. 3.2x gives DM3 256.

 

Would bank on 260-270 finish.

Edited July 2, 2017 by a2knet

[DAR]

Nice for BD

[YM!]

Just now, cannastop said:

Why, when not even Finding Dory could do that?

I'm glad you asked:

1.) The animation market in early 2018:

Peter Rabbit has the best chance of animated film in early 2018 to do $100M domestic. Gnomes isn't doing over Storks/Underpants, Paddington 2 will still be small, Early Man and Laika untitled film will do sub $50M, and Stubby will be lucky to do $30M domestic. Families will have really nothing big animation wise to flock too.

2.) Pixar's Most Wanted Sequel and Nostalgia

This is the most wanted sequel to any of Pixar's movies. Not to mention nostalgia.

3.) Pixar has quality on their side

4.) Superhero movies are big.

[YM!]

2 minutes ago, DAR said:

It doesn't guarantee 500 but Incredibles is one of the few Pixar sequels people do want.

I agree. I'm thinking $420M-$450M domestic

[That One Girl]

11 hours ago, grim22 said:

Looks like @aabattery officially ran the Lone Ranger joke into the ground now.

 

@aabattery don't listen to him, it's still funny

[a2k]

6 minutes ago, narniadis said:

Yep, totally 100% wrong on DM3.... 

 

Ugh. Glad to be wrong on Baby Driver as well though so it balances out. Lol

 

And @YourMother considering the OWs would be similar it wouldn't surprise to see DM3 get a gross close to Shrek 4. 

 

Lot of us thought SLOP's ow was in play. Never thought it would be sub-80. I think maybe folks planning to watch on Mon-Tue is something we discounted. Also Minions in some way acted like DM2's sequel instead of just a spin-off and used a lot of DM2's bo mojo (though am not entirely convinced on this. Minions did huge partly because it focused specifically on the minions and people weren't having enough of them in the DM movies).

[MCKillswitch123]

28 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Baby Driver is hitting 20M for the 3 day and nearly 30M for the 5 day

DM3 isn't hitting 80M

 

God is real.

 

 

Correction: the Tomato Law is real

 

1 hour ago, YourMother said:

I think 2018 will be the true test. We'll have 10 next years:

- 3 from the MCU (BP, IW, AMW)

- 3 from Fox (NM, DP2, Phoenix)

- 2 from Sony (Venom, SPTAM)

- 1 from DCEU (AQM)

- 1 from Disney (TI2)

 

I think most, if not all of them, are gonna do well. The only two of these I see not being necessarily hits are Venom - unless it's fantastic, since, despite a lot of things in its favor, ultimately it's a film that not a lot of people give a shit about - and Dark Phoenix - another FC era movie is doomed to go down from Apocalypse, unless, again, it's DOFP or Logan quality. I also don't think that the animated Spider-Man movie is gonna be enormous - Lego Batman numbers, me thinks - but it'll still do pretty well.

 

Everything else is bound to be a big, big hit. Black Panther, Infinity War, Deadpool 2, Incredibles 2 and Aquaman will all be pretty huge; and Ant-Man 2 and New Mutants can also be breakouts. Even w/the massive amount of these coming, I doubt the superhero genre is gaining fatigue anytime soon.

 

31 minutes ago, cannastop said:

I love The Lion King, actually, but I think that Beauty and the Beast is overrated.

 

Fair enough. I personally think that BATB was perfect for what it had to be, but that's just me. Lion King is the best Disney film of all time (and only my #4 favorite animated movie ever, w/the Toy Story trilogy standing ahead of it).

[Zakiyyah6]

Welp my 101mil for DM3 is going to be way off. The people who called Shrek 4 were dead on.

 

Wonder Woman is going to have another under 50% drop and some are acting like it's doing poorly for some unknown reason. Lol The goal is not 400mil and NEVER was 400mil. There is no movie that opens with 103mil that people believe has to make 400 million total.

 

Baby Driver continues to do well, Cars continues to not do well and Transformers continues to do what most predicted it would. The House is such a freaking disaster. I've seen The House's premise in a million sitcoms before, I have no idea why the movie was even made.

[YM!]

Lion King > Zootopia > Beauty and The Beast (1990)

[filmnerdjamie]

Where is @GiantCALBears?

 

He has crow to eat after all that smack-talk last weekend.

 

http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/24255-june-23-25-weekend-thread-tf5-45m-cars-3-240-wonder-woman-249-10th-highest-4th-weekend-of-all-time-and-biggest-4th-weekend-of-2017/?do=findComment&comment=3072676

 

http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/24255-june-23-25-weekend-thread-tf5-45m-cars-3-240-wonder-woman-249-10th-highest-4th-weekend-of-all-time-and-biggest-4th-weekend-of-2017/?do=findComment&comment=3072752

Edited July 2, 2017 by filmnerdjamie

[NCsoft]

1 hour ago, YourMother said:

DM3 might actually go under $235M aka Shrek 4 numbers Domestic with that type of OW.

 

I think this means DM3 might not get to be the highest grossing animated film domestically, if Coco is anywhere near the quality of Inside Out.

[TwoMisfits]

3 hours ago, baumer said:

Oh, and if my summer game was on life support before, it's officially dead now.

 

It will still probably make it to #4, so it's not all bad...unless you had it $400M+...it will get to the $200s and has a chance at the $300s, but we'll see how the weeks shape up.  I wish I had seen it so I could make a bolder call like WW, but a live broadway-esque theatrical performance of The Little Mermaid was on the agenda this weekend...and wow, that musical is well done and reminds one how awesome the movie really was.  Since it broke WDAS's awful streak and started their renaissance, we kinda forget about it since B&TB and Lion King followed, but wow, so, so, good...

 

Although I am much less optimistic DM3 will break up my supers order like I originally expected:)...man, I was so hoping to nail the top 4 in order...

[a2k]

So tf5 looking at 4.9 + 6.3 + 5.8 = 17 weekend. ~62% drop. Mon and Tue should be good like with other movies.

How it behaves during SM6 and Apes3 will decide if it makes it to 140.

[YM!]

Just now, NCsoft said:

I think this means DM3 might not get to be the highest grossing animated film domestically, if Coco is anywhere near the quality of Inside Out.

Also thinking Coco at best is doing DM3 numbers. Coco seems likely to do Ratatouille numbers in my opinion. Disney will barely market it in favor for Thor and Jedi and faces The Star, JL, Ferdinand, and Jumanji in terms of family competition.

[Elessar]

2 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

Wonder Woman is going to have another under 50% drop and some are acting like it's doing poorly for some unknown reason. Lol The goal is not 400mil and NEVER was 400mil. There is no movie that opens with 103mil that people believe has to make 400 million total.

 

Geez, no one is saying it's doing poorly and no one is saying 400m or bust. I would love it to reach it, THAT IS ALL! lol