5-day Weekend #s: DM3 99M, BD 29.97M, WW 24.07M, TF5 24.05M, Cars 3 14.2M, House 11.9M

[cannastop]

5 minutes ago, Biggestgeekever said:

Wow. DM3 may not even hit $210M. I thought that Minions being a spinoff would mean the worse audience reception than Shrek 3 would minimize the damage somewhat, but apparently not.

I actually thought that Minions were an asset to this movie. Silly me.

[The Panda]

1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

Yuuuuup. This is why Dark Phoenix is going to perform awfully. 

 

It's also why I think, despite reviews, War will still go under Rise.  It's not a franchise the GA cares about.

 

Homecoming is going to be the first test for the genre this year, as Spidey is a franchise that had been on a steep decline.  It'll be interesting to see if that actually does a 180 or just has a small bump.  It could be the positive reception that saves it from this.

 

Thor: Ragnarok has the benefit of looking completely different from the last Thor movie and having a fun trailer.  It'll also test this.

 

Justice League will benefit from WW doing well, but I'm still betting on it being either the lowest or 2nd lowest grossing DCU film.

 

 

[YM!]

4 minutes ago, CJohn said:

That one is easily going under 100M. The question is how much under will it go.

Thinking $95M. The release date for it is also horrible.

[WrathOfHan]

DM3 had a worse Saturday hold than Minions and was only above Minions' Sunday drop by about 5% (15% or so vs 20.7%) on an inflated Sunday. Honestly, this is going to drop 60% next weekend.

[TwoMisfits]

2017 is taking 2016's domestic sequel fatigue and amping it up...GOTG 2, Logan, and John Wick 2 are about the only non-casualties...and 2 of these are supers...and heck, even the 3rd is practically the same thing:)...

 

This does not bode will for Apes in a few weeks, no matter how spectacularly better it is than its predecessors...it's not supers...

 

And 2018 sequels at the DOM BO Office...half of them should get canceled now before they totally end up in the bloodbath...

[YM!]

1 minute ago, The Panda said:

Homecoming is going to be the first test for the genre this year, as Spidey is a franchise that had been on a steep decline.  It'll be interesting to see if that actually does a 180 or just has a small bump.  It could be the positive reception that saves it from this.

I'm thinking it might be the Pets/IO to WW's Dory/JW. The movie is damn good crowdpleaser, my audience ate it up. Thinking it'll have an OW around $100M but have strong legs.

[titanic2187]

13 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Variety just posted an article about the dire state of R-rated comedies right now: http://variety.com/2017/film/news/the-house-rough-night-r-rated-comedies-box-office-1202486209/

with marvel's movie successfully blend the comedy genre with superhero element, "pure" comedy drama just have no where to go....

 

[YM!]

I'm starting to think Beasts 2 will go sub $200M. I think Ralph 2 is also going sub $200M.

[Jonwo]

3 minutes ago, YourMother said:

And people want come at Pixar for being sequel happy.

 

Illumination had two original films last year which balances it out. 

[cannastop]

1 minute ago, filmlover said:

Minions 2 will be lucky to make half of what the first did. Although that would still make it profitable given the budgets of these movies on average so...

I think another thing we haven't fully appeciated is how many of these movies there are. Minions/Despicable me has 4 movies in 7 years, whereas it took Shrek 9 years for that. Kind of reaching saturation. A fifth movie would be chasing diminishing returns.

 

Although Illumination will be on the same track for 20 years, based on their business model. I don't think anythings going to knock them down.

 

 

[The Panda]

Just now, YourMother said:

I'm thinking it might be the Pets/IO to WW's Dory/JW. The movie is damn good crowdpleaser, my audience ate it up. Thinking it'll have an OW around $100M but have strong legs.

 

Strong legs are relative.  I'm willing to be SM:H doesn't have a 3x multi (and likely doesn't come that close) because it's the 6th SM film.  The only SH movies with 3x multis are originals or de-facto originals.

[Brainbug]

Sequelitis may be a thing. And 2018s wave of sequels might be affected. But one movie wont be touched by this.

 

Spoiler

Jurassic World 2. 600M+. Will win best picture

 

[Webslinger]

1 minute ago, The Panda said:

But I think this "franchise everything" mindset is going to coming back to bite studios in the butt.

 

One could easily make the argument that it already is. Just look at last weekend: not only did we see a severely-weakened Transformers sequel, but we also saw nothing opening against it. While the reluctance to counterprogram a Transformers movie would have made sense with, say, the second movie (which, ironically, was counterprogrammed by the sudsy drama My Sister's Keeper), it left a hole in this year's release schedule. If a viewer's options are limited to big sequels that laid an egg (relatively speaking) critically and financially, they're less likely to head to the multiplex to see anything. While I'm glad that the general weakness of this summer's big sequels and franchise flicks outside of Guardians 2 and Wonder Woman has helped those two films (and Baby Driver, which may have been lost in the shuffle in a more competitive season in which more of the big ticket tentpoles actually delivered upon expectations), it spells trouble for studios that expect to keep repeating past glories by cranking out sequel after sequel after sequel without a hard look into whether audiences really want them as badly as they think.

[Jonwo]

Just now, YourMother said:

I'm starting to think Beasts 2 will go sub $200M. I think Ralph 2 is also going sub $200M.

 

I think FB2 will be fine, it'll likely stay flat or decrease a little with OS doing huge business. 

 

 

[filmlover]

This summer has been rough on sequels to aging franchises. Alien collapsed, Pirates lost 30% of its previous gross (and a sixth movie would only go down again), Cars will be lucky to cross $150M, Transformers sank like a stone, and Despicable Me is looking to be the lowest-grossing in the franchise by quite a bit. Add to that comedies are being ignored and can you really blame everyone for going nuts over the superhero movies? At least Baby Driver's looking to be an original breakout, thankfully.

[WrathOfHan]

The multi DM3 needs:

 

to pass 200M: 2.78x

to get 216M: 3x

to pass the first: 3.49x

[a2k]

Same legs as BOSS BABY (eventually looking at ~3.48x multi with 174+ dom) give DM3 252, compared to 251.5 of DM1.

But matching BOSS BABY's legs will be tough for a sequel. Safe to say impossible.

 

And LEGO BAT's 3.32x and SMURF3's 3.38x give 240-245 dom.

 

DM3 could target 230-235 (3.18-3.25x).

Edited July 3, 2017 by a2knet

[cannastop]

I guess everything was overestimated. I hope Baby Driver still made over $30m, though.

[Jonwo]

2 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Although Illumination will be on the same track for 20 years, based on their business model. I don't think anythings going to knock them down.

 

 

 

Illumination can survive with $300-500m WW grossers, DWA in comparison in their heyday needed every film needed to be a hit because the budgets were so high. 

 

 

[titanic2187]

1 minute ago, Brainbug said:

Sequelitis may be a thing. And 2018s wave of sequels might be affected. But one movie wont be touched by this.

 

  Reveal hidden contents

Jurassic World 2. 600M+. Will win best picture

 

sequel fatigue stoke not just once, but they were soon recover, and still making money, like POTC5, it still make money although far lesser, with lower risk than original IP and no alternative for sequel model, hollywood have no way to get rid of sequel......