5-day Weekend #s: DM3 99M, BD 29.97M, WW 24.07M, TF5 24.05M, Cars 3 14.2M, House 11.9M

[cannastop]

Just now, a2knet said:

Same legs as BOSS BABY (eventually looking at ~3.48x multi with 174+ dom) give DM3 252, compared to 251.5 of DM1.

But matching BOSS BABY's legs will be tough for a sequel. Safe to say impossible.

 

And LEGO BAT's 3.32x and SMURF3's 3.38x give 240-245 dom.

 

DM3 should target 230-235 (3.18-3.25x).

I think a 3x is in question. It's a well worn franchise at this point, and it doesn't seem to have great WOM. And Minions didn't have a 3x either.

[SpiritComix]

Yeah, 2017 is the year of franchise fatigue.

 

And I think next weekend, 'Spider-Man: Homecoming' will pay the price of the three previous bad movies. Thirteen years with bad Spider-Man movies and the last one was very close, 2014, just three years ago.

 

Something that happened to 'Batman Begins', which came after 'Batman Forever' and 'Batman and Robin'. And BB still had a longer time for people to forget the previous films, eight years.

 

Let's see. 

[WrathOfHan]

lmao oh shit its Sunday hold was actually worse than Minions  

[YM!]

Just now, cannastop said:

I think a 3x is in question. It's a well worn franchise at this point, and it doesn't seem to have great WOM. And Minions didn't have a 3x either.

Not to mention it could drop hard against Spider-Man next weekend.

[cannastop]

1 minute ago, Jonwo said:

 

Illumination can survive with $300-500m WW grossers, DWA in comparison in their heyday needed every film needed to be a hit because the budgets were so high. 

 

 

Much like WDAS and Pixar today. They're not overextending themselves like Dreamworks did, though.

[Brainbug]

Just now, WrathOfHan said:

lmao oh shit its Sunday hold was actually worse than Minions  

 

Your profile picture matches perfectly to the post

[a2k]

1 minute ago, Brainbug said:

 

Your profile picture matches perfectly to the post

 

It's part of a gif I will use when @WrathOfHan inevitably gets banned, and get more than 40 likes.

[Jonwo]

3 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Much like WDAS and Pixar today. They're not overextending themselves like Dreamworks did, though.

 

Pixar and WDAS won't need to reduce budgets unless they start to have back to back flops. 

[WrathOfHan]

Fuck it, I'm going all in on this DM3 forecast:

 

Remainder of this week: 36.6M (108.6M Total)

Jul 7: 28.8M (11M weekdays, 148.3M Total)

Jul 14: 14.4M (5.5M weekdays, 168.2M Total)

Jul 21: 7.2M (2.7M weekdays, 178.1M Total)

Jul 28: 2.9M (1.1M weekdays, 182.1M Total)

Aug 4: 1.5M (500k weekdays, 184.1M Total)

 

Final Total: 187M (2.6x)

[TheDarkKnightOfSteel]

Don't kid yourself...Spidey is opening to at least 120M.It will benefit from being the first Spider-Man movie in the Marvel Universe ,from having Iron-Man and also being critically acclaimed.The novelty of him being in the MCU and the great reviews will counter whatever bad willleft from the previous films.130/370M.

[titanic2187]

with cash-cow, WDAS, pixar, marvel and lucasfilm, when was the last time Disney had a flopped film??? 

[TwoMisfits]

I am kicking myself b/c I used the sequelitis term everywhere last year, and I should have predicted DM3 the same way I did all the other sequels this year in my top 15...it just seemed they hadn't quite worn out their welcome...although I guess vs the other sequels in and out of my top 15, I did put DM3 in the right order, except for being above GOTG 2 (aka the supers sequel)...

 

Next summer is looking more and more likely to be a bloodbath, not a rebirth, of summer box office...unless free tickets and BOGOs are advertised all over the place...sequel prices might need to be lower to get GA to bite after it's not "new" anymore...

 

 

[filmlover]

Just now, titanic2187 said:

with cash-cow, WDAS, pixar, marvel and lucasfilm, when was the last time Disney had a flopped film??? 

Well, they did put out Alice Through the Looking Glass and The BFG just last year. 

[Jonwo]

Just now, titanic2187 said:

with cash-cow, WDAS, pixar, marvel and lucasfilm, when was the last time Disney had a flopped film??? 

 

Alice through the Looking Glass wasn't successful and Pete's Dragon too even though the latter was very good. The Finest Hours last year bombed and lost money

[a2k]

2017 - maybe no animations crossing 250 after ZOOTP, PETS, DORY, SING in 2016 (and MOANA almost did it with 249).

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, TwoMisfits said:

I am kicking myself b/c I used the sequelitis term everywhere last year, and I should have predicted DM3 the same way I did all the other sequels this year in my top 15...it just seemed they hadn't quite worn out their welcome...although I guess vs the other sequels in and out of my top 15, I did put DM3 in the right order, except for being above GOTG 2 (aka the supers sequel)...

 

Next summer is looking more and more likely to be a bloodbath, not a rebirth, of summer box office...unless free tickets and BOGOs are advertised all over the place...sequel prices might need to be lower to get GA to bite after it's not "new" anymore...

 

 

 

These sequels just need to be good. Thats it. Make competent movies. People will see them. This first half of summer was very sad quality-wise.

[a2k]

Good news is that DM3 is looking at well over 550 OS. Maybe well over 600. 825-850 WW is realistic despite dom underperforming.

Edited July 3, 2017 by a2knet

[Jonwo]

3 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Well, they did put out Alice Through the Looking Glass and The BFG just last year. 

 

The BFG should have done a lot better than it did. I imagine Disney didn't lose much as they only distributed it in a handful of markets overseas and it was a co-production.

Edited July 3, 2017 by Jonwo

[John Marston]

Apes and Dunkirk will also underperform. This summer everyone is saving their money for the hyped superhero flicks 

[TwoMisfits]

1 minute ago, Brainbug said:

 

These sequels just need to be good. Thats it. Make competent movies. People will see them. This first half of summer was very sad quality-wise.

 

Naw, the animateds were "good" - as sequels, they now need to be great!