5-day Weekend #s: DM3 99M, BD 29.97M, WW 24.07M, TF5 24.05M, Cars 3 14.2M, House 11.9M

[TwoMisfits]

Just now, cannastop said:

Around $120m I think. A little more, or a little less.

 

Not the tracking and presales...In mid-June, Deadline had it for between $90-$108M and I'm not sure anyone has moved off that number yet...

[mahnamahna]

48 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

 

I reckon they'll move Tomb Raider or Rampage to May. I don't see them risking RPO in the summer.

They could always arrange their schedule like this:

Spoiler

1/12 - Rampage

1/19 - Horse Soldiers

2/14 - Game Night

3/16 - Ready Player One

4/20 - The Nun

5/11 - Ocean's 8

5/25 (if Han Solo gets delayed/Deadpool 2 remains on 6/1) or 6/1 (if Han Solo gets delayed/Deadpool 2 takes the Memorial Day slot) - Tomb Raider

6/8 - Life of the Party

6/29 - Tag

8/10 - Meg

9/7 - Untitled WB Horror

9/14 - Smallfoot

9/28 - A Star is Born

10/19 - Jungle Book - Origins

11/16 - Fantastic Beasts 2

12/21 - Aquaman

There isn't a blockbuster-type film in January yet, so Rampage, Geostorm and Tomb Raider could all be a good fit for MLK weekend IMO

[AugustRain]

I don't think Spidey will break out big but I think WOM could help it do really well. However it might break out, I don't know.

 

As long as it improves on the ASM2 domestic total of $202 million, I think Sony will be pretty happy.

 

It should pretty well worldwide.

[Zakiyyah6]

I'm predicting 120mil opening for Homecoming. Which is 10 mil down from my original prediction.

[Jonwo]

1 minute ago, mahnamahna said:

They could always arrange their schedule like this:

  Hide contents

1/12 - Rampage

1/19 - Horse Soldiers

2/14 - Game Night

3/16 - Ready Player One

4/20 - The Nun

5/11 - Ocean's 8

5/25 (if Han Solo gets delayed/Deadpool 2 remains on 6/1) or 6/1 (if Han Solo gets delayed/Deadpool 2 takes the Memorial Day slot) - Tomb Raider

6/8 - Life of the Party

6/29 - Tag

8/10 - Meg

9/7 - Untitled WB Horror

9/14 - Smallfoot

9/28 - A Star is Born

10/19 - Jungle Book - Origins

11/16 - Fantastic Beasts 2

12/21 - Aquaman

There isn't a blockbuster-type film in January yet, so Rampage, Geostorm and Tomb Raider could all be a good fit for MLK weekend IMO

 

Ready Player One's Easter slot works so i don't see moving it forward two weeks. I don't see Rampage moving to January unless it's a real stinker.

[Ohana]

What's up with SMH OW tracking? 
I thought it's on 125M 

[YM!]

Just now, Ohana said:

What's up with SMH OW tracking? 
I thought it's on 125M 

3 weeks before: $90M-$108M

Recently a DHD article said $100M+

[TwoMisfits]

3 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

I'm predicting 120mil opening for Homecoming. Which is 10 mil down from my original prediction.

 

Pre-summer, I probably had it $140-$150M OW...and it just doesn't feel like it will get there (or even close to there) now...for its total BO, it's gonna live or die on if it gets the 13-25 audience, b/c it will get families with aged 6-12 kids and it will get older adults...and I just can't tell if it's gonna go big, or now that WW and GOTG 2 stole the thunder, it will be "Another supers movie?  Nah..."

 

For my predicts, I'm now hoping its legs fall between WW and GOTG 2 and that it opens between the 2, so it has a chance to still get to #1 for the summer.  If it opens at my presummer expectation, I'll ask why I ever doubted myself...but presales at my theaters are just not high enough yet for that...and again, that teen/young adult demo would be the walk ups if it's gonna blow up...

[Finnick]

"HAPPY 4th OF JULY TO ALL BOTs AMERICAN MEMBERS"

[Ohana]

Just now, YourMother said:

3 weeks before: $90M-$108M

Recently a DHD article said $100M+

Oh, yesterday Grace Randolph on Movie Talk said It's tracking on 125M

[stephanos13]

7 hours ago, Maitch said:

So looking for another potential DCEU release in 2018, WB current have these in develpment

 

Gotham City Sirens - In development for a year, could be fast tracked if the script is decent. Harley Quinn is a major draw, so best possibility for summer release

Nightwing - Probably a smaller film than the others. Could be fast tracked, but I am not sure it would work as a summer tent pole

Suicide Squad 2 - They should have a script by now. Not sure they should fast track this one

The Batman - Matt Reeves is available now for directing, but Affleck does not want this movie to rushed. I think 2018 is out of the question

Batgirl - Joss Whedon is tied up to Justice Leauge up until november. I don't think he can make the movie for 2018

Man of Steel 2 - Currently no script, no director. Too many effects for a rushed released

Flash - Script problem and no director attached. Too many effects for a rushed released

Justice League Dark - In development for ages. Could be fast tracked.

Wonder Woman 2 - Script currently being written. Don't think they can make it

Shazam - In development for a long time, The Rock is attached. Maybe they could move up the production.

 

I left out Cyborg and Green Latern Corps since they already have a date.

 

I think the best bet for another 2018 is Gothan City Sirens or Nightwing, but maybe it is just best to not rush anything. Waiting for Comic Con for confirmation.

 

Gotham City Sirens would be the safest choice for 2018 release.

[YM!]

If GCS does get a 2018 release, we'll have 11 superhero movies, with 5 inside the summer.

[AugustRain]

I don't think Gotham City Sirens will release next year, isn't Margot Robbie pregnant?

 

 

[MrGlass2]

6 hours ago, DamienRoc said:

 

All indications is that Homecoming is going to open in about the same vicinity as WW did: 100-110m. So it'll need to have BETTER legs than WW has had in order to take the crown.

 

I think SM:H will open a bit higher at $130M, but it will still need solid legs to get near $400M.

[stephanos13]

7 minutes ago, YourMother said:

If GCS does get a 2018 release, we'll have 11 superhero movies, with 5 inside the summer.

 

FOX - New Mutans, Deadpool 2, X-MEN Dark Phoenix

WB - Aquaman

Marvel - Black Panther, Avengers, Ant-Man and the Wasp

Sony - Venom

 

Which am I missing???

Edited July 4, 2017 by stephanos13

[grey ghost]

What are the chances that tracking is underpredicting SMH by a wide margin a la Deadpool?

 

Is tracking more accurate now?

[YM!]

Just now, stephanos13 said:

 

FOX - New Mutans, Deadpool 2, X-MEN Dark Phoenix

WB - Aquaman

Marvel - Black Panther, Avengers, Ant-Man and the Wasp

 

Which am I missing???

Venom, Animated Spider-Man, Incredibles 2, and possibly Gotham City Sirens.

[Barnack]

3 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

What are the chances that tracking is underpredicting SMH by a wide margin a la Deadpool?

 

Is tracking more accurate now?

 

I would guess extremely low (almost impossible for that king of margin).

 

Not necessarily that tracking is more accurate but that the poll of superheroes movie similar to Spider Man is much larger than Deadpool (that was arguably a novelty), to the release date pattern, to the target audience, to the characters involved themselves being in their 6 or more movies in modern days, it would be really surprising if a title like that take tracking service by surprise. 

 

Precision of tracking models are usually as good as the poll of comparable they have to work with (that why they had so little clue about Jurassic World and Force Awaken, those result never happened before).

[John Marston]

22 minutes ago, Ohana said:

What's up with SMH OW tracking? 
I thought it's on 125M 

 

 

Tracking is about 100m

[Zakiyyah6]

WB aren't rushing another DC movie because that could easily turn into another horribly reviewed mess. And as much as hardcore DCEU fanboys pretend they don't WB does care about the receptions of the DC movies. They know they have to do better now, it's just going to be Aquaman in 2018.