Weekend Thread 7/7-7/9 | ABSOLUTELY NO SPOILERS ALLOWED | SMH 117M, DM3 34M, BD 12.5M, WW 10.1M, TF5 6.3M, Biggus Dickus 3.65

[TwoMisfits]

2 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

Let's say you are right. Does it really matter what they're going to be at? The budget for these films is insanely low and this is the fourth movie and it's going to be well over three billion dollars already. And how nice of you two s*** on a movie 3 movies down the road when a 4th one is doing insane business overseas and is going to probably clear 900 million LOL

 

I was more amused he sh&t on the DM 3's DOM weekend and people who thought $40M was possible, after he predicted only $28M for it on another derby prediction thread...and it's gonna blow past that number...

[fmpro]

30 minutes ago, baumer said:

Yep, it's opening in China and people were saying that DM3 might open to 75 mill in China.

 

Closer to 65. Legs wont be good

[The Dark Alfred]

There's two way to look at it. If you compare HC to the TASM films it's doing well. If you compare to the Tobey SM's, it is doing badly considering it's Marvels most popular SH aided by the current alpha IM. What happened to Spidey? Used to be Batman's big rival, now can even sniff at a Captain America film? That's certainly not great.

 

My my benchmark is Suicide Squad. If Homecoming finishes below, that's certainly a major disappointment, if it can get past SM3 I'd call it a success.

Edited July 9, 2017 by The Dark Alfred

[Zakiyyah6]

People aren't writing off the legs because of the weekend multiplier, most people just know that it's not easy to get a 3.0 multiplier for these big opening comic book movies and some people have their perception skewed by Wonder Woman. And frankly this film can't be compared to Wonder Woman because Wonder Woman didn't drop 27% on Saturday. I do agree that people need to hold their horses and wait to see what the movie does overall but I expected a better weekend multiple and I still wasn't predicting it to have the legs that others are expecting.

Edited July 9, 2017 by Zakiyyah6

[Jake Gittes]

1 hour ago, baumer said:

So WW is going to be at about 369 after Sunday.  It needs another 31 million to hit 400.  It's coming off about a 10.5 weekend.  That means it needs about a 3 multiplier to hit 400.

 

 

4 multiplier because you can't exclude the weekend. The gross as of Thursday is 358.7m, that's where it needs to get to 400 from.

[The Panda]

41 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

There 's a rush no doubt.  That doesn;'t mean it can't have good legs.  But good legs, before we got Gal spoiled with WW, for a comic book film, are usually about 2.7.  That's bout 313.  That would be outstanding

 

Would like this but I'm out of likes!

[Chaz]

Wow, WW is going to easily cross $400m. A couple of weeks ago we thought that it would crawl there, if it got there at all.

 

Tele's club will happen.

[Zakiyyah6]

Saying that Spider-Man homecoming has to beat Suicide Squad domestically is a made-up success threshold. Over 300 million is the goal and that's it.

[YM!]

I'm wondering if Wonder Woman can be the top superhero movie this year domestically.

[The Panda]

45 minutes ago, KJsooner said:

 

This movie is the best reviewed superhero movie of the year, so I think it's legs will be fine.

 

Great reviews =\= Great legs

 

Now, I do think it'll have good comic book legs, but I think the range is 2.4x - 2.8x, it'll need to hit around a 2.6x depending on where the OW ends up.

 

I wouldn't bet against it hitting 300m, but I wouldn't place money on it either.

[baumer]

11 minutes ago, fmpro said:

 

Closer to 65. Legs wont be good

 

Doesnt matter. Last one did what....65 total? So this does 125-130. 

[MrGlass2]

15 minutes ago, The Dark Alfred said:

My my benchmark is Suicide Squad. If Homecoming finishes below, that's certainly a major disappointment, if it can get past SM3 I'd call it a success.

 

Suicide Squad is right below SM3, that isn't the right way to look at it: $325M would be a "major disappointment", but $336M a success? Unless you adjust for inflation, but then SM3 ($432M) makes all recent superhero movies look bad.

 

It would be great for Homecoming to reach SS numbers; if not, $300M+ would be fine too. I'd say below TASM1 non-adjusted ($262M) would be disappointing (SM:H will easily beat that).

Edited July 9, 2017 by MrGlass2

[YM!]

1 minute ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

Saying that Spider-Man homecoming has to beat Suicide Squad domestically is a made-up success threshold. Over 300 million is the goal and that's it.

From the context I think he meant worldwide numbers but still. As long as it outgrossed ASM1 and ASM2, I think Sony is happy. This is their second/third best domestic OW.

[ProtoMan]

2 hours ago, Cochofles said:

 

True. The thing to consider is that at the end of the day, SM:H is "just" another solidly crafted MCU film starring a popular superhero. WW has become a pop culture phenomenon due to many reasons that add to the buzz. It's a perfect storm of awareness that includes solid marketing, critical raves after a string of DCEU RT duds, several sociopolitical "firsts," media saturation, scholarly analysis, feminist debates, think pieces, even a much-buzzed-about,  instantly iconic scene (No Man's Land), all of which add to the must-see feel—which has fueled the WOM. Spider-Man will be a huge hit, but WW is on an entirely different level of ”why” it’s a huge hit (oddly enough, akin to the first Spidey film in 2002). 

 

I think Spider-Man's biggest issue is that it's the 6th movie from the character with three bad movies. That will have some type of effect. I doubt most in the GA know the difference between the Sony and MCU movies.

 

If Transformers franchise suddenly has a well-received movie, it's probably not going to jump to 400M DOM, it's going to take some time to build up the goodwill.  

 

WW is character that's been around to the GA since the 70's from the Super Friends cartoon and of course the Lynda Carter show. So you have over 40 years of people waiting for a WW movie.

 

The performance is reminiscent of Batman 89 and Spider-Man 1 with built up demand of a popular comic book character. WW was the last iconic comic book character to not have a movie and the book office results is showing it. 

 

I'm certain if Captain Marvel had come out with the same exact reception, it would make 150M less from WW just simply because the character not being all that iconic. 

 

Black Panther could do great and overperform but it would be due to social reasons and the movie serving an under represented audience more than the actual character.

 

Spider-Man is doing great for Sony. But right now, it's Wonder Woman's time. 

[bangbingchan]

44 minutes ago, baumer said:

Yep, it's opening in China and people were saying that DM3 might open to 75 mill in China.

65M More possible

[fabiopazzo2]

4 minutes ago, YourMother said:

I'm wondering if Wonder Woman can be the top superhero movie this year domestically.

JL?

[Zakiyyah6]

2 minutes ago, YourMother said:

I'm wondering if Wonder Woman can be the top superhero movie this year domestically.

We'll have to wait to see what Homecomings legs are like obviously. Of course Ragnarok has no chance of doubling its predecessors numbers or coming close to that. 

 

Justice League has a mediocre director with a polarizing streak so that's going to be very hard for that to have anything resembling legs even during the holidays.

 

I think it honestly has a really good chance.

[teardropmina]

2 minutes ago, YourMother said:

I'm wondering if Wonder Woman can be the top superhero movie this year domestically.

 

very high probability, unless JL turns out very, very GA pleasing and WW good will actually helps.

don't see Thor 3 doing CW, Iron Man 3 numbers, which is what it needs to beat WW. 

[baumer]

4 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

Saying that Spider-Man homecoming has to beat Suicide Squad domestically is a made-up success threshold. Over 300 million is the goal and that's it.

 

I'll go you one better. Maybe the goal this time around was to get Spider-Man back into the good graces of people. That's why they gave it a John Hughes theme and that's why they put Iron Man in it. It's coming off of two films that people really didn't like so it's great for people like us on this form to throw out arbitrary numbers like 330 and 700 million and so on but really I think what's Sony and the MCU are doing is getting a good Spider-Man film out there that people like so that the next one can do even better. And judging by the word of mouth I think they have accomplished that.

[The Dark Alfred]

11 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

Saying that Spider-Man homecoming has to beat Suicide Squad domestically is a made-up success threshold. Over 300 million is the goal and that's it.

 

Please explain how losing to a badly reviewed mess is acceptable when you have got your two most popular SH in one film? It's certainly not a good omen going forward. 

 

I was was kind when compared to SS, realisticly the benchmark should be SM3. Homecoming should be doing those numbers at minimum otherwise we can state that Spidey is still a second tier SH, opposed to the first tier it used to belong.

 

I don't dispute the fact that it's good to have a decent SM out there, but it's just sad how much the character have been tarnished if 320m would be considered good. With Marvel on board you'd expect to beat SM3/SS/BvS.

Edited July 9, 2017 by The Dark Alfred