Weekend Thread 7/7-7/9 | ABSOLUTELY NO SPOILERS ALLOWED | SMH 117M, DM3 34M, BD 12.5M, WW 10.1M, TF5 6.3M, Biggus Dickus 3.65

[Cochofles]

Even if this doesn't eventually mirror Wonder Woman's once-in-a-blue-moon kind of word-of-mouth and box office run, I hope nobody dare say that SM:H is anything but a massive triumph/rebound for the Spidey brand. 

 

 

 

Edited July 10, 2017 by Cochofles

[ZattMurdock]

Just now, Cochofles said:

Even if this doesn't eventually mirror Wonder Woman's once-in-a-blue-moon kind of word-of-mouth and box office run, I hope nobody dare say that SM:H is anything but a massive triumph for the Spidey brand. 

It is a triumph, but I still think that there's something about June/July that works differently than let's say May when it comes to tentpoles that go big. I'm betting on the fact that I have this notion that Summer changes the pattern of how people go to the movies next to the usual May blockbusters. All I need to confirm this theory is this weekend, it's SMH's tougher weekend. Let's see how it holds. 

[baumer]

6 hours ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

It has no chance of getting Wonder Woman legs. I usually don't like being that definitive but I will be this time.

 

I think you can be very confident in this asssertion seeing as no comic book film post 2002 has WW legs.

[YM!]

1 minute ago, baumer said:

 

I think you can be very confident in this asssertion seeing as no comic book film post 2002 has WW legs.

Maybe Animated Spider-Man but it'll have a way lower OW ($30M-$35M) but have strong Christmas legs. Aquaman could pull it off too if visuals are top notch.

[baumer]

4 hours ago, iJackSparrow said:

I wouldn't count Spidey out just yet. I think weekdays in July might be proven to be even stronger. Spider-Man: Homecoming is a crowdpleaser and even if it's the sixth Spider-Man film, I'm very curious to see how Spidey will perform this week and second weekend. The odds are with Diana, but Spidey could still crawl for the crown. I just can't count Spidey out. 

 

I had to double check the user name....then it all made sense when I saw it was ijack....you do know that the chances of SMH doing 3.4X are about as likely as me getting a date with Gal Gadot, right?

[baumer]

4 hours ago, iJackSparrow said:

Not sure. July is a different beast. Here are Spidey numbers next to WW:

 

FRI:

SMH $50.7m

WW $38.2m

 

SAT: 

SMH $37m

WW $35m

 

SUN:

SMH 29.2m

WW 29.7m

 

What I can see it happening is Spidey having stronger weekdays. And by consequence, to hold it better next weekend against Apes. If Spider-Man: Homecoming manages to spread its momentum and wom throughout the weekdays, we could see SMH recovering ground throughout the weekdays / next weekend. July is perfect for a scenario like that to happen: if SMH manages to keep over WW weekdays, we might see SMH keep holding it together against WW box office wise. I seriously think that the box office run of both movies will be more mirrored than most are foreseeing here. SMH needs to start going above WW this Monday, for that to happen. It needs to have a Monday number above $11.7m. Let's see. 

 

[Subzero]

1 minute ago, baumer said:

 

I had to double check the user name....then it all made sense when I saw it was ijack....you do know that the chances of SMH doing 3.4X are about as likely as me getting a date with Gal Gadot, right?

 

Who knows she might do it for a charitable cause.

[baumer]

3 hours ago, nomyth said:

Wondy's run's got people thinking it's easy to grab a 3x multiplier.

 

With SM's Sunday already below WW's, I don't see how it could possibly outgross its 2nd weekend. Keep in mind, WW jumped over 70% on its 2nd Friday. The biggest jump in the top 10 on the same weekend back in 2006 was 50%. SM would need extraordinarily strong weekdays to shoot for 60M. It would need like a 15M Monday.

 

 

Best case I can see for Spidey's first Monday is a 55% drop.  13 mill Monday would be pretty good imo.

[ZattMurdock]

10 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

I had to double check the user name....then it all made sense when I saw it was ijack....you do know that the chances of SMH doing 3.4X are about as likely as me getting a date with Gal Gadot, right?

Jared Leto grabbed my hand and forced me to go up the stage he was playing with his band once. If freaking Joker can bring me into a stage without me even wanting to be there, anything can happen.  

Edited July 10, 2017 by iJackSparrow

[YM!]

In order tor SMH to get to $400M is it'd need legs like Pets but slightly smaller. It has a 5% chance.

[ZattMurdock]

1 minute ago, YourMother said:

In order tor SMH to get to $400M is it'd need legs like Pets but slightly smaller. It has a 5% chance.

Never tell me the odds.  

[Cochofles]

7 minutes ago, Subzero said:

 

Who knows she might do it for a charitable cause.

 OMG!!!!  

[a2k]

1 hour ago, iJackSparrow said:

What I can see it happening is Spidey having stronger weekdays. And by consequence, to hold it better next weekend against Apes. If Spider-Man: Homecoming manages to spread its momentum and wom throughout the weekdays, we could see SMH recovering ground throughout the weekdays / next weekend. July is perfect for a scenario like that to happen: if SMH manages to keep over WW weekdays, we might see SMH keep holding it together against WW box office wise. I seriously think that the box office run of both movies will be more mirrored than most are foreseeing here. SMH needs to start going above WW this Monday, for that to happen. It needs to have a Monday number above $11.7m. Let's see. 

 

July Monday drops get better and Friday bumps get worse. So 12+ Monday for SM is expected. Both Ant-Man and Minions feel 57-58% on Monday. That will give SM around 12 easily.

Doesn't mean it's gonna be par with WONDR on the weekends.

[ZattMurdock]

Just now, a2knet said:

 

July Monday drops get better and Friday bumps get worse. So 12+ Monday for SM is expected. Both Ant-Man and Minions feel 57-58% on Monday. That will give SM around 12 easily.

Doesn't mean it's gonna be par with WONDR on the weekends.

Let's see.  

[baumer]

3 hours ago, Subzero said:

 

Who knows she might do it for a charitable cause.

 

I'd donate to charity to go out with her one night....just to hear her stories...man it would be cool.  

[baumer]

3 hours ago, iJackSparrow said:

Jared Leto grabbed my hand and forced me to go up the stage he was playing with his band once. If freaking Joker can bring me into a stage without me even wanting to be there, anything can happen.  

 

Rachael Tichotin was a complete twat to me on the set of FX2.  She acted like she was the next Julia Roberts (even though Julia wasn't a thing yet).  If Rachael Tichotin....err I forgot where I was going with this.  

 

Still not going to happen Ijack.

[Cochofles]

20 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

I think you can be very confident in this asssertion seeing as no comic book film post 2002 has WW legs.

 

Now I am really curious as to what the next big comic book breakout will be (in terms of multiplier/legs)...

Black Panther? The New Mutants? Aquaman? The Flash? Cyborg? Captain Marvel? I know that it won't be any of the Infinity Wars, Iron Mans or Justice Leagues...

[ZattMurdock]

Just now, baumer said:

 

Rachael Tichotin was a complete twat to me on the set of FX2.  She acted like she was the next Julia Roberts (even though Julia wasn't a thing yet).  If Rachael Tichotin....err I forgot where I was going with this.  

 

Still not going to happen Ijack.

I love to go for the impossible. It is impossible until it isn't. Spidey is not out yet. 

[ZattMurdock]

1 minute ago, Cochofles said:

 

Now I am really curious as to what the next big comic book breakout will be (in terms of multiplier/legs)...

Black Panther? The New Mutants? Aquaman? The Flash? Cyborg? Captain Marvel? I know that it won't be any of the Infinity Wars, Iron Mans or Justice Leagues...

I actually legit think it'll be Justice League. Then Black Panther.

[YM!]

3 minutes ago, Cochofles said:

 

Now I am really curious as to what the next big comic book breakout will be (in terms of multiplier/legs)...

Black Panther? The New Mutants? Aquaman? The Flash? Cyborg? Captain Marvel? I know that it won't be any of the Infinity Wars, Iron Mans or Justice Leagues...

Black Panther, New Mutants, and Aquaman I can see over a 3x multiple. Maybe even 3.5x if Panther is extremely good and Aquaman gets that Christmas Cash.