Weekend Thread 7/7-7/9 | ABSOLUTELY NO SPOILERS ALLOWED | SMH 117M, DM3 34M, BD 12.5M, WW 10.1M, TF5 6.3M, Biggus Dickus 3.65

[Cochofles]

1 minute ago, iJackSparrow said:

I actually legit think it'll be Justice League. Then Black Panther.

 

I would love for either of those to do that. I have a hunch that JL will post such massive overall numbers that even a typical CBM multi will lead it to a great total. BP...yeah, I can totally see that becoming a smash for the ages due to an above-average multi...

[TwoMisfits]

1 minute ago, iJackSparrow said:

I actually legit think it'll be Justice League. Then Black Panther.

 

If Justice League has the heroes actually fighting the villains and not each other...yeah...

 

This said, Batman is allowed to have as many glowering and "you're an idiot" moments in the team meetings...especially towards Flash (and Green Lantern depending on the size of his cameo:)...and that's all good...that's a functioning Justice League:)... 

[Blaze Heatnix]

21 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

I had to double check the user name....then it all made sense when I saw it was ijack....you do know that the chances of SMH doing 3.4X are about as likely as me getting a date with Gal Gadot, right?

 

 

I couldn't resist!!!

[baumer]

Just curious...but i see a few posters throwing around multipliers like 3.3...3.4....3.5...do you know how unlikely these multipliers are?  Not just unlikely, but incredibly rare.  If I'm not mistaken, there have been two multipliers of 3.5 since Spider-man did it in 2002 and that would be GOTG2 and WW.  This is not just rare but it's almost unheard of.  Getting over a 3 multiplier isn't exactly easy either.  I think WW has fried some of your brains.

[ZattMurdock]

16 minutes ago, YourMother said:

In order tor SMH to get to $400M is it'd need legs like Pets but slightly smaller. It has a 5% chance.

Basically, to behave like WW / a critically acclaimed animation film. The release date and what has against it makes me think that yeah, that is possible. I need to see it's second weekend and weekdays before saying if it's 1% or 10% tho. 

[ZattMurdock]

1 minute ago, baumer said:

Just curious...but i see a few posters throwing around multipliers like 3.3...3.4....3.5...do you know how unlikely these multipliers are?  Not just unlikely, but incredibly rare.  If I'm not mistaken, there have been two multipliers of 3.5 since Spider-man did it in 2002 and that would be GOTG2 and WW.  This is not just rare but it's almost unheard of.  Getting over a 3 multiplier isn't exactly easy either.  I think WW has fried some of your brains.

Amazing films did that. WW can do it. SMH can do it too. I find your lack of faith in the webslinger disturbing.  

[a2k]

Aquaman is in Decemeber. I don't see much less than 3x even if it's a s-so film. If it's good it can do 3.5x.

[YM!]

I'm sticking with my $117M/$305M (2.61x) prediction.

[teardropmina]

2 minutes ago, baumer said:

Just curious...but i see a few posters throwing around multipliers like 3.3...3.4....3.5...do you know how unlikely these multipliers are?  Not just unlikely, but incredibly rare.  If I'm not mistaken, there have been two multipliers of 3.5 since Spider-man did it in 2002 and that would be GOTG2 and WW.  This is not just rare but it's almost unheard of.  Getting over a 3 multiplier isn't exactly easy either.  I think WW has fried some of your brains.

 

GOtG VOL1. 

and also the higher the OW, the more difficult to get to 3X legs. 

imo, wom is only one part of WW's legs; it's more than that. 

[BadAtGender]

3 minutes ago, iJackSparrow said:

Amazing films did that. WW can do it. SMH can do it too. I find your lack of faith in the webslinger disturbing.  

Or maybe I saw the film and didn't find it to be amazing. 

 

Like, it's anecdotal as hell, but three people have asked my opinion on the film over the weekend and the first thing I said each time was, "ehhhh..." so at least from a personal standpoint, the wom isn't great. 

[baumer]

3 hours ago, teardropmina said:

 

GOtG VOL1. 

and also the higher the OW, the more difficult to get to 3X legs. 

imo, wom is only one part of WW's legs; it's more than that. 

 

Thanks for the correction.  But you knew what I meant.  

And what else do you attribute to WW pushing towards an unprecedented 4X?  

[TwoMisfits]

Just now, baumer said:

 

Thanks for the correction.  But you knew what I meant.  

And what else do you attribute to WW pushing towards an unprecedented 4X?  

 

I'll give the easy thing...held down OW due to both poor reception of previous universe movies AND the NBA finals games (2 affected the weekend)...without both, it probably opens to at least Spidey numbers (and I think the NBA might have been the bigger OW reducer:)...

[TwoMisfits]

Spidey will do well on cheap day...my Tuesday cheap local (aka, the local who did not add last minute showings this weekend) has added 2 Spidey showings just for tomorrow (stolen from other movies) since they have pretty much sold out their early afternoon and primetime evening 2d shows...

 

Now, no idea how it's doing Monday yet...but Tuesday should be excellent:)...

 

 

Edited July 11, 2017 by TwoMisfits

[baumer]

Just a few observations from this weekend....nothing too in depth....I'm not @MikeQ

 

Awesome return for Spider-man.  The MCU stuff really helped with the opening and it's gotten high praise with critics and fans alike.  The front loaded nature of the film is not surprising as Spider-man is one of the most iconic super-heroes out there.  I think it could be in for a nice run domestically and finish with about 310.  I mean, it's just spitballing at this point.  Internationally it got off to a huge start as well so the chances of it going north of 500 million look excellent.  Could we see a 900 million dollar Spidey?  Looks very possible.

 

DM3 feel an understandable 53% this weekend.  While it looks to finish well back of the 300 million mark domestically, it's still doing ridiculous business internationally.  Perhaps a 225-240 finish here but internationally it might go past 600 million or even higher.  It just did 140 million internationally in its second weekend.  So yes, there is some erosion domestically but global audiences seem to be liking it just fine.

 

Coming in at number three is Baby Driver.  13 million is only a 36.7% drop and this bodes well for a push to 100 million.  It would need a 3.3X from here to get there but even if it misses it will more than likely hit 90 million which is easily going to be Wright's top film.  This is a crowd pleasing film and it's being rewarded at the box office.

 

Fourth is Wonder Woman and she feel a slight 37.5% to 9.8 million.  We've discussed this front and back and inside out but one more tiny analysis won't hurt.  For WW to fall this softly in the sixth weekend against the first film that is truly direct competition, is just plain nuts.  Spider-man opens to 117 million and WW has another drop of less than 40%.  At this point, it would be a shock if she doesn't get to 400 million and the possibility of hitting a 4X, while still a little remote, cannot be overlooked now.  As I have said many times now, this is a historic run and one that we should all appreciate.  In ten years from now when we look back at this summer, WW is going to be one of those films where people simply wonder how it got to 400 million from a 103 mill OW.  

 

Fifth is Transformers.  It dropped 62% and is all but dead.  Transformers had a terrific run for Paramount but this once massive franchise has finally been kicked to the curb.  It pains me as a Transformers loonie to see what they have done to the franchise since they got rid of Shia.  I personally don't like the new direction they have gone and apparently neither does the rest of the world.  

 

Cars 3 had a nice hold dropping 44.5% but this is another franchise that has seen better days.  It's probably time to let this one go as well.  Pixar has enough other films they can brainwash people with.

 

The House came in next and dropped softly but when you only open to 8.7 million, it's kind of easy to have a nice hold.  This will be Will Ferrell's lowest grossing comedy where he was the lead since Semi Pro, which only did 33 million.  This is just another in a long string of comedies to tank at the box office this summer.

 

The Big Sick came in at number 8 as it expanded by 255 theaters.  It also had the second best per theater average after Spider-man.  This one looks like it could be a very mini My Big Fat Greek Wedding.  There are similarities there in terms of content.  It took in 3.5 million and if it continues to add more theaters, it could be a nice little hit.

 

Number 9 is my favourite story of the summer after WW.  47 Metres Down took in 2.7 million and looks to finish with around 45 million.  This is a film that has been on HV for about a year and the producers have stated that the only reason they took a chance on it is because of the success of The Shallows Last year.  Well, it paid off for them.  I hope this is a good sign to come for the massively budgeted tent-pole next summer called MEG.

 

Rounding out the top ten was The Beguiled.  It took in 2.06 million and will probably end with around 12 million.  I don't think Sofia Coppola will ever have a true money maker.  Critics love her, but her films, at times, can be kind of bland.  This one, imo, is no exception.

 

Now, back to your friendly neighbourhood Spider-man talk.  

[teardropmina]

26 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

Thanks for the correction.  But you knew what I meant.  

And what else do you attribute to WW pushing towards an unprecedented 4X?  

 

I think it connects to the female demo in a way that it's not just a movie. 

this is just an example how WW gone viral, something might seem so ridiculous for males...

 

http://www.refinery29.com/2017/06/158291/wonder-woman-thigh-jiggle-male-gaze

 

the original tweet has gotten more likes and rt since ofc.

 

also, the wonder woman pose/gesture, clothing, hair style, uplifting quotes, and etc. are just so perfect for this twitter/instagram age.

  

[baumer]

3 hours ago, teardropmina said:

 

I think it connects to the female demo in a way that it's not just a movie. 

this is just an example how WW gone viral, something might seem so ridiculous for males...

 

http://www.refinery29.com/2017/06/158291/wonder-woman-thigh-jiggle-male-gaze

 

the original tweet has gotten more likes and rt since ofc.

 

also, the wonder woman pose/gesture, clothing, hair style, uplifting quotes, and etc. are just so perfect for this twitter/instagram age.

  

 

I agree with all of this.  But if the movie wasn't any good, it wouldn't get a 3.7-4.0X.  

[teardropmina]

25 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

I agree with all of this.  But if the movie wasn't any good, it wouldn't get a 3.7-4.0X.  

I thought that the movie is pleasing to the GA is a given~ 

just saying that wom alone wouldn't have taken WW this far. 

Edited July 11, 2017 by teardropmina

[jf8350143]

Come to think of it, all those talks about "relax, it's a spidey movie, there is very little Iron Man in there" isn't really helping the box office. If this was a Spiderman/Ironman team up movie, I think more people will want to see it. 

 

Team up tend to bring more audiences into the theatre and Iron Man(or RDJ) is the most popular character in MCU.

Edited July 11, 2017 by jf8350143

[GrimFandango]

2 minutes ago, teardropmina said:

 

I think it connects to the female demo in a way that it's not just a movie. 

this is just an example how WW gone viral, something might seem so ridiculous for males...

 

http://www.refinery29.com/2017/06/158291/wonder-woman-thigh-jiggle-male-gaze

 

the original tweet has gotten more likes and rt since ofc.

 

also, the wonder woman pose/gesture, clothing, hair style, uplifting quotes, and etc. are just so perfect for this twitter/instagram age.

  

 

Not to mention that it also appeals to an older demographic than most SHMs, and even to people who don't normally see CBMs. It's like a 4-quadrant-plus film. I've seen it a lot, and I'm surprised at the number of older couples (dare I say even elderly) that I've seen, and they seem to love it: lots of laughs, etc.  As some reviewers have notably said, WW is very balanced--it's not too dark, not too light, not too much action, and not too wordy.  Every time I see it, it feels shorter than its 2hr21min run time, and that is a rare accomplishment. It's hard to find a place for a bathroom break, for god's sake!

 

It's going to be referred to as one of the best examples of CMBs, and particularly origin stories, ever put to film.

[teardropmina]

8 minutes ago, jf8350143 said:

Come to think of it, all those talks about "relax, it's a spidey movie, there is very little Iron Man in there" isn't really helping the box office. If this was a Spiderman/Ironman team up movie, I think more people will want to see it. 

 

Team up tend to bring more audiences into the theatre and Iron Man(or RDJ) is the most popular character in MCU.

they certainly marketed the team-up thing...