Weekend Thread 7/7-7/9 | ABSOLUTELY NO SPOILERS ALLOWED | SMH 117M, DM3 34M, BD 12.5M, WW 10.1M, TF5 6.3M, Biggus Dickus 3.65

[Subzero]

Guys,

I/ looking for the brave & bold .... I just created a "SMH under SM3 $890 WW" club,

Join if you are bold enough http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/24355-smh-under-sm3-ww-890m/

 

[RobinHood26]

4 minutes ago, Subzero said:

Guys,

I/ looking for the brave & bold .... I just created a "SMH under SM3 $890 WW" club,

Join if you are bold enough http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/24355-smh-under-sm3-ww-890m/

 

 

I'm sorry but there is nothing bold about Spider-man 6 grossing less then the highest grossing Spider-Man movie. 

[Plain Old Tele]

...that's bold?

 

 

[Subzero]

2 minutes ago, Jay Hollywood said:

 

I'm sorry but there is nothing bold about Spider-man 6 grossing less then the highest grossing Spider-Man movie. 

 

SM3 was ages ago with today inflation and China expansion (huge) it's very unlikely that the OS of SMH is less than that of SM3.

Also currently it doing better in most territory than all previous Spidey film ..

 

Edited July 10, 2017 by Subzero

[ZattMurdock]

7 minutes ago, DamienRoc said:

 

WW fell 60%. That's actually not too different what films fell last year on the comparable Monday (July 11.) Tarzan fell 61%, Central Intelligence 58%. Basically everything was in the 55-65% range.

 

I think Spidey might get around what WW had for weekdays, but it's going to give up a ton of ground in the weekends. 

WW made 58.520.672 on its second weekend, with a 43.3% drop. SMH is at $117,027,503, if SMH manages to keep stronger weekdays and let's see, a 47% drop, it would still keep it ahead WW, with 62m. A drop similar to WW or even bigger - which isn't unlikely with the wom around the film catching on - would put it above $65m. I'm waiting for today's and Tuesday's numbers, but I still think it will be closer than most here seem to think. 

[TwoMisfits]

3 minutes ago, iJackSparrow said:

WW made 58.520.672 on its second weekend, with a 43.3% drop. SMH is at $117,027,503, if SMH manages to keep stronger weekdays and let's see, a 47% drop, it would still keep it ahead WW, with 62m. A drop similar to WW or even bigger - which isn't unlikely with the wom around the film catching on - would put it above $65m. I'm waiting for today's and Tuesday's numbers, but I still think it will be closer than most here seem to think. 

 

I'm with you 100% iJack...not abandoning Spidey's chances til we see way more than 1 weekend:)...we might be on our own island, but that worked for WW:)...

 

The biggest thing I loved about the weekend was the audience breakdown - very young and enormously diverse...both will help reach so many more people with excellent WOM:)...

[That One Girl]

1 hour ago, Telemachos said:

Tele Jr is interested in VALERIAN -- seriously considering taking him. 

 

Good, good...

 

Next, you gotta take him to IT.

[YM!]

3 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

Good, good...

 

Next, you gotta take him to IT.

And Ninjago. My sanity depends on it.

[Subzero]

22 minutes ago, Telemachos said:

...that's bold?

 

 

 

SM3 DOM is going to be around SM3, that's with a multiplier under 3x.

Also the OS expansion  especially with China and all in today's market is much more bigger that when SM3 was OUT.

Therefore I see SMH doing better OS than SM3, with that being said ... $900M is the min for SMH because of OS.

alerady is outgross all spidey in most of the Foreign territory ...and China,Germany,Frnace etc..  hasn't even started yet.

[nomyth]

Wondy's run's got people thinking it's easy to grab a 3x multiplier.

 

With SM's Sunday already below WW's, I don't see how it could possibly outgross its 2nd weekend. Keep in mind, WW jumped over 70% on its 2nd Friday. The biggest jump in the top 10 on the same weekend back in 2006 was 50%. SM would need extraordinarily strong weekdays to shoot for 60M. It would need like a 15M Monday.

[ZattMurdock]

2 minutes ago, nomyth said:

Wondy's run's got people thinking it's easy to grab a 3x multiplier.

 

With SM's Sunday already below WW's, I don't see how it could possibly outgross its 2nd weekend. Keep in mind, WW jumped over 70% on its 2nd Friday. The biggest jump in the top 10 on the same weekend back in 2006 was 50%. SM would need extraordinarily strong weekdays to shoot for 60M. It would need like a 15M Monday.

 

Let's see. Regardless, I feel confident enough that their runs will be closer than people are seeing here. It starts with these weekdays and next weekend. 

 

I feel so confident about it that I've even started my own club, which many would say it's ballsy. I don't think so:

 

http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/24356-spider-man-homecoming-second-weekend-over-60m-487-drop/

[BadAtGender]

26 minutes ago, iJackSparrow said:

WW made 58.520.672 on its second weekend, with a 43.3% drop. SMH is at $117,027,503, if SMH manages to keep stronger weekdays and let's see, a 47% drop, it would still keep it ahead WW, with 62m. A drop similar to WW or even bigger - which isn't unlikely with the wom around the film catching on - would put it above $65m. I'm waiting for today's and Tuesday's numbers, but I still think it will be closer than most here seem to think. 

 

...

 

Spidey is highly unlikely to fall under 50%, regardless of the weekdays.

 

 

I think while Spidey might have generated a lot of positive response, there's a difference in the nature of that response which is going to have an effect. Spidey is getting "it's a lot of fun" which I'd agree with, but there isn't anything that says "must see!" 

 

Wonder Woman has that. It's got a strong undertone of being not just a good and entertaining movie, but an important one. Get Out and Hidden Figures had that earlier this year, as well.

[ZattMurdock]

1 minute ago, DamienRoc said:

 

...

 

Spidey is highly unlikely to fall under 50%, regardless of the weekdays.

 

 

I think while Spidey might have generated a lot of positive response, there's a difference in the nature of that response which is going to have an effect. Spidey is getting "it's a lot of fun" which I'd agree with, but there isn't anything that says "must see!" 

 

Wonder Woman has that. It's got a strong undertone of being not just a good and entertaining movie, but an important one. Get Out and Hidden Figures had that earlier this year, as well.

It's Spider-Man, the wom is massively positive and Spider-Man is arguably one of the most popular characters ever, even more so among kids. The school is out and its summer. It's a perfect date film just like WW. I'm banking very much on Spidey actually starting to have weekend drops softer than WW by its third weekend. 

[a2k]

60% drop gives SMH 47m 2nd weekend.

57% drop gives 50m.

47-50m is the range next weekend imo.

 

Edited July 10, 2017 by a2knet

[TwoMisfits]

2 minutes ago, DamienRoc said:

 

...

 

Spidey is highly unlikely to fall under 50%, regardless of the weekdays.

 

 

I think while Spidey might have generated a lot of positive response, there's a difference in the nature of that response which is going to have an effect. Spidey is getting "it's a lot of fun" which I'd agree with, but there isn't anything that says "must see!" 

 

Wonder Woman has that. It's got a strong undertone of being not just a good and entertaining movie, but an important one. Get Out and Hidden Figures had that earlier this year, as well.

 

It's summer - "it's a lot of fun" probably sells better now than "it's important"...I mean, Dory, Pets, Jurassic World - not important...but very fun:)...

 

And this is coming from an uber-WW-original bandwagon fan:)...

[ZattMurdock]

1 minute ago, a2knet said:

60% drop gives SMH 47 2nd weekend.

57% drop gives 50.

47-50 is the range next weekend imo.

 

1 minute ago, a2knet said:

60% drop gives SMH 47 2nd weekend.

57% drop gives 50.

47-50 is the range next weekend imo.

47% would make to $62m. 

[Brainiac5]

2 minutes ago, iJackSparrow said:

It's Spider-Man, the wom is massively positive and Spider-Man is arguably one of the most popular characters ever, even more so among kids. The school is out and its summer. It's a perfect date film just like WW. I'm banking very much on Spidey actually starting to have weekend drops softer than WW by its third weekend. 

I think we should stop looking for popularity to equal  Boxoffice .

I didn't see that Fri-sat drop coming all because for a moment I believe Spider-Man with Ironman would Plus 94% will see something along the lines of 130+ and defy all odds.

[a2k]

ANT-MAN, on it's way to 3.15x multi in July, fell 56.5% in the 2nd weekend.

MINIONS, on it's way to 2.9x multi in July, fell 57.3% in the 2nd weekend.

 

So even if SMH in on track for 2.9-3.1x, 57% drop for 47m is about the best it can do this weekend.

[ZattMurdock]

5 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

It's summer - "it's a lot of fun" probably sells better now than "it's important"...I mean, Dory, Pets, Jurassic World - not important...but very fun:)...

 

And this is coming from an uber-WW-original bandwagon fan:)...

 

Same here, and it's what I'm seeing. WW is and always will be important. But underplaying Spidey with the kind of wom that it's getting is very premature. If it manages to hold like I'm seeing, there's absolutely nothing on its way that will have a major impact. Spidey will dominate NA's summer box office. 

[ZattMurdock]

Just now, a2knet said:

ANT-MAN, on it's way to 3.15x multi in July, fell 56.5% in the 2nd weekend.

MINIONS, on it's way to 2.9x multi in July, fell 57.3% in the 2nd weekend.

 

So even if SMH in on track for 2.9-3.1x, 57% drop for 47m is about the best it can do this weekend.

Completely different scenarios here. Still betting on around 47% drop.