Weekend Actuals (Page 150): Apes 56.3M | SMH 44.2M | DM3 19.4M | Baby 8.7M | Big Dick 7.5M | WW 6.8M | Wish Upon 5.5M | Tomatoes losing their power

[Blaze Heatnix]

6 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

GOTG2 obviously had really good word of mouth judging by it's, good for a sequel, multiplier. It garnered a better multiplier than Logan which you claim has intense word of mouth.

 

I didn't say GOTG didn't have good word of mouth. It just didn't have the same feeling the first movie had.

 

Yeah, yeah. There's a third world that I didn't put on my post. It's the world where reviews and box office don't correlate each other. But I guess this third world could be a consequence from the result of the word of mouth from the 2 previous worlds. So, I wouldn't waste any time creating a new one. 

 

Hell, there could even be another world, where intense world of mouth isn't enough to convince people that are disappointed after so many failed previous entries. So, it would be the "intense word of mouth in name only".

 

 

Edited July 17, 2017 by Blaze Heatnix

[YM!]

7 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

GOTG2 obviously had really good word of mouth judging by it's, good for a sequel, multiplier. It garnered a better multiplier than Logan which you claim has intense word of mouth.

Not to mention, typically Marvel sequels and teamups do around 2.3x-2.4x in multiples. GV2 had some solid legs, similar to Winter Solider. It also outgrossed it in both admissions and in box office.

Edited July 17, 2017 by YourMother

[CalifoBoy]

I read on Forbes that for Wondy to reach the 400M$ milestone it will have to behave similarly to Spider Man 1 from today. Is it really possible?!

Edited July 17, 2017 by CalifoBoy

[TwoMisfits]

15 minutes ago, Johnny Tran said:

 

It should have a huge opening and then ride the winter wave no? 

 

Probably not - just too many wide releases that are gonna fight for the same theaters over a 6 week period...it would really need to be holding better than JL to win the battle for those Dec holiday screens...and JL will have the "opens 2 weeks later" advantage...

 

For Thor to do gangbusters and stay to Jan 1 with any kinda real theater count, I think JL will have to flop...and I'm not seeing that from the trailers...

[dxmatrixdt]

my top 5

1. Logan

2. Apes

............

3. Wonder Woman

4. Colossal

5. Personal Shopper

[JohnnyGossamer]

25 minutes ago, Blaze Heatnix said:

In a world where people don't look at Rotten Tomatoes, there are 4 kinds of word of mouth:

 

 

1) Normal word of mouth - "Hey dude, movie is fine, good. I liked it"

 

2) Insane word of mouth - "Bro!! Movie was great. You have to watch it. I'll probably watch it again! Tal to your friends too!"

 

3) Negative word of mouth - "Man, I didn't like this movie. Perhaps you might like it. It's not my cup of tea. Good luck"

 

4) Negative toxic word of mouth - Movie was shit. Please, don't watch it! Don't do that to yourself! It sucks donkey balls. Horrible"

 

 

In a world where many people use Rotten Tomatoes before watching movies, there are 4 kinds of word of mouth:

 

 

1) Fresh word of mouth - "Bro, critics got it really right this time. Movie was great and delicious. Watch it ASAP!"

 

2) Barely fresh word of mouth - "You know man, I liked it. It was ok. It could be better. That's all. Feel free to give it a try, if you want"

 

3) Reverse fresh word of mouth- "Bro, movie is overrated! I was expecting so much more, based on the tomatometer. Good, but not that good"

 

4) Reverse rotten word of mouth - "Bro, I was expecting shit, but I was surprised. Seriously, give it a try. Critics were really wrong on this one"

 

 

 

So, when a movie like Homecoming gets 93-94% on RT but doesn't get intense word of mouth, that's because this movie is part of the worlds I listed above. It is number 1 ( good word of mouth ) from the first world and number 2 ( barely fresh word of mouth ) from the second world. Both numbers cancel it other, thus explaining the regular performance.

 

Besides, you can't avoid the "another MCU movie" feeling.  Movies like Deadpool, Logan and Wonder Woman are different and that's why they got intense word of mouth.  GOTG was great for the first time, but it didn't do anythijg new for the second one. So, it was more of the same. Deadpool 2 might be another victim of that, because it's not something new anymore.

 

 

 

 

 

Dude, just about all sequels suffer "more of the same" especially if they retain the director. Guardians Vol. 2 increased pretty comfortably DOM. It was well liked. This is way oversimplified. As is the RT reasoning. Far more goes into than that.

[Zakiyyah6]

15 minutes ago, YourMother said:

Not to mention, typically Marvel sequels and teamups do around 2.3x-2.4x in multiples. GV2 had some solid legs, similar to Winter Solider. It also outgrossed it in both admissions and in box office.

Yep, it went above the typical sequel legs.

[a2k]

Despicable Me 3

Universal

$19,357,565

-42%

$188,399,715

 

MINIONS added 3.2x the 3rd weekend more to it's cume. Would give DM3 62 more for ~250. Don't know about that, but 240 should happen at least.

 

A very SHREK4 like run....~71 ow / ~238 dom. Should finish higher than SHREK4 though.

Edited July 17, 2017 by a2knet

[Jonwo]

November is crowded this year, more so than last year. November 10th in particular will see one or more underperformers, my guess is Murder on the Orient Express will do decently but Daddy Home's 2 and The Star will do less than expected.

[dxmatrixdt]

A Ghost Story might have the first Sunday numbers example of the Game of Thrones effect.

2017/07/14	-	$49,560	+534%	20	$2,478	$191,866	8
2017/07/15	-	$53,825	+9%	20	$2,691	$245,691	9
2017/07/16	-	$32,046	-40%	20	$1,602	$277,737	10

[dxmatrixdt]

The Mummy seemed unaffected by Game of Thrones

2017/07/14	-	$106,140	-5%	401	$265	$78,730,170	36
2017/07/15	-	$149,175	+41%	401	$372	$78,879,345	37
2017/07/16	-	$106,875	-28%	401	$267	$78,986,220	38

[dxmatrixdt]

same for Transformers (not affected by Game of THrones)

2017/07/14	9	$800,387	+33%	2,323	$345	$122,909,006	24
2017/07/15	-	$1,170,733	+46%	2,323	$504	$124,079,739	25
2017/07/16	-	$872,467	-25%	2,323	$376	$124,952,206	26

[JohnnyGossamer]

30 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

GOTG2 obviously had really good word of mouth judging by it's, good for a sequel, multiplier. It garnered a better multiplier than Logan which you claim has intense word of mouth.

Yeah. This. Logan actually further proves that very, very well liked sequel can be frontloaded - and, trust me, people adored Logan - and result in legs that don't appear incredible due to the frontloaded OW. This happens with quite a few well liked sequels, especially in CBM genre. Homecoming, even with that big drop, has a fair chance of having a superior multiplier to Logan as well. It actually unravels his entire argument.

Edited July 17, 2017 by JohnnyGossamer

[a2k]

The Big Sick

Lionsgate

$7,529,590

+111%

$15,966,414

 

[Subzero]

8 minutes ago, CalifoBoy said:

I read on Forbes that for Wondy to reach the 400M$ milestone it will have to behave similarly to Spider Man 1 from today. Is it really possible?!

 

SM1 did roughly 824K on this Monday. So WW need roughly a ~30% drop to reach that ..it should be do-able.

$400M is good at this point, although SM1 final DOM is tough ....

[dxmatrixdt]

same drop as last week for 47 Meters

2017/07/14	-	$361,004	+22%	1,032	$350	$40,358,111	29
2017/07/15	-	$461,715	+28%	1,032	$447	$40,819,826	30
2017/07/16	-	$316,861	-31%	1,032	$307	$41,136,687	31

[dxmatrixdt]

The Big Sick was hit hard Sunday.  Adult movies drop alot on Sundays in July but not this bad.  Game of Thrones Effect?  ***if so, Apes #'s have me nervous**

2017/07/14	5	$2,479,924	+548%	2,597	$955	$10,916,748	22
2017/07/15	-	$3,097,110	+25%	2,597	$1,193	$14,013,858	23
2017/07/16	-	$1,952,556	-37%	2,597	$752	$15,966,414	24

Edited July 17, 2017 by Matrix4You

[Blaze Heatnix]

12 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Dude, just about all sequels suffer "more of the same" especially if they retain the director. Guardians Vol. 2 increased pretty comfortably DOM. It was well liked. This is way oversimplified. As is the RT reasoning. Far more goes into than that.

 

 

I know, I know. I would have to write an essay, in order to adress everything. So, though it looks like "oversimplified", it's part of what explains the different performances.

 

 

[Ms Lady Hawk]

4 minutes ago, Subzero said:

 

SM1 did roughly 824K on this Monday. So WW need roughly a ~30% drop to reach that ..it should be do-able.

$400M is good at this point, although SM1 final DOM is tough ....

 Wouldn't it be more useful to compare it to The Hunger Games? More recent movie which more accurately reflects the trends, especially cheap ticket Tuesday's. 

[Subzero]

1 minute ago, Diana Prince said:

 Wouldn't it be more useful to compare it to The Hunger Games? More recent movie which more accurately reflects the trends, especially cheap ticket Tuesday's. 

 

Oh we were just comparing it to SM1, since There's a club started by Tele for WW over SM1.  So enable for it to pass SM1, it has to match or beat it at this point on in its 7th week.