DUNKIRK WEEKEND THREAD | ABSOLUTELY NO SPOILERS | Official estimates Dunkirk 50.5M, GT 30.3M, SMH 22M, Apes 20.4M, Val 17M | Wonder Woman is the new summer champ with 389M total | Summer Sale is Live!

[JohnnyGossamer]

Just now, YourMother said:

I'd argue Dory (to a lesser extent) and WW were impressive summer blockbusters 

Oh, yes, very impressive. But, again, no where near as impressive as the ones I mentioned. Those are mammoths.

[Premium George]

2 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Eh... Pretty equally impressive. The two most impressive summer blockbusters since Dark Knight. Looking forward to the next summer when we actually see mammoth breakout like Spider-man, Dark Knight, Avengers or Jurassic World.

What movie you think will breakout? Only movie I expect is deadpool 2 if it somehow manages to reach $180m. Or if incredibles 2 did same. Otherwise they all are expected to open huge. They have to do something more to be called breakout.

[YM!]

5 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Eh... Pretty equally impressive. The two most impressive summer blockbusters since Dark Knight. Looking forward to the next summer when we actually see mammoth breakout like Spider-man, Pirates 2, Shrek 2, Dark Knight, Avengers or Jurassic World. Wonder Woman's a great story and the legs are outstanding but it's not remotely close to the admissions of the aforementioned. Pretty sure all of 'em adjust to at least $220M more than Wonder Woman will finish with DOM.

I wouldn't be surprised if Lion King had a Avengers/JW style run.

[a2k]

Runs seem more or less impressive based on personal expectations.

That's why JW is most impressive to me. Followed by DP.

 

I expected 80 ow for JW and 200 dom. So it beat my Dom expectations during the ow itself.

DP was similar (beating dom expectations in ow) only with smaller numbers, so I have it next in the list.

 

Also I didn't expect JW to do 3x+ after that ow.

 

edit: on top of that while I thought DP's marketing was awesome, never felt the JW hype. The much liked poster, the dino feeding on the shark, a pun on Jaws also felt meh to me. Now I am a convert. Rooting for JW2 winning the summer and Gold-blooming everywhere.

Edited July 25, 2017 by a2knet

[YM!]

In terms of the next $500M summer blockbuster, I'll give chances:

SWIX (if it stays in the summer): 100%

TLK: 90%

Jurassic World 2: 45%

Infinity War 1: 40%

Infinity War 2: 40%

Wonder Woman 2: 40%

The Batman (if 6/14/19): 35%

Incredibles 2: 20%

Deadpool 2: 10%

Godzilla V Kong: Dawn of Justice: 5%

and for @PRESIDENT BKB 

(Shut Up) Meg: 1%

Edited July 25, 2017 by YourMother

[KeepItU25071906]

Strong $6.4M MON for #Dunkirk, off just 51% from SUN. 1st full week shd reach about $75M. Will get near $100M after 2nd wknd.

— Gitesh Pandya (@GiteshPandya) July 25, 2017

[Finnick]

 

[JohnnyGossamer]

2 minutes ago, damnitgeorge08 said:

What movie you think will breakout? Only movie I expect is deadpool 2 if it somehow manages to reach $180m. Or if incredibles 2 did same. Otherwise they all are expected to open huge. They have to do something more to be called breakout.

You know, the last two to really breakout to insane numbers were Avengers and Jurassic World. Neither was expected to big anywhere near as big as they were... So, I have a bad answer... I have no idea. The obvious choices would be Deadpool 2, Wonder Woman 2, Avengers 3, Guardians 3, Jurassic World 2, Incredibles 2. I just don't know though. No one thought Avengers would challenge Dark Knight Rises and the Avengers destroyed it at the box office. No one though Jurassic World would challenge Ultron and Jurassic World destroyed it at the box office.

[JohnnyGossamer]

2 minutes ago, YourMother said:

In terms of the next $500M summer blockbuster, I'll give chances:

SWIX (if it stays in the summer): 100%

TLK: 90%

Jurassic World 2: 45%

Infinity War 1: 40%

Infinity War 2: 40%

The Batman (if 6/14/19): 35%

Incredibles 2: 20%

Lion King is easily the best chance. I think that'll be very well received and gross something like $550M. Jurassic World 2 could do it as well. I actually think Infinity War 1 has a much better chance than 2 because there's actually been a little Avengers break with no Avengers or pseudo-Avengers movie this summer. Incredibles and Bats could come very close.

 

Funny thing is... Incredible will probably gross like $600M+ now that I gave no chance.

Edited July 25, 2017 by JohnnyGossamer

[Cochofles]

 

6 minutes ago, YourMother said:

I'd argue Dory (to a lesser extent) and WW were impressive summer blockbusters 

He seems to love reminding people that Wonder Woman is not as impressive as everyone claims.  

This is like the third thread in which he repeatedly assures us that as great as WW's legs are, they are not as great as such-and-such film's WOM. Well duh. Of course there are plenty of films that obliterate WW's legs.  

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

2 minutes ago, KeepItU25071906 said:

That's a fantastic #. Not expecting too much of a bump today, maybe +15%.

[YM!]

6 minutes ago, a2knet said:

Runs seem more or less impressive based on personal expectations.

That's why JW is most impressive to me. Followed by DP.

 

I expected 80 ow for JW and 200 dom. So it beat my Dom expectations during the ow itself.

DP was similar (beating dom expectations in ow) only with smaller numbers, so I have it next in the list.

 

Also I didn't expect JW to do 3x+ after that ow.

 

edit: on top of that while I thought DP's marketing was awesome, never felt the JW hype. The much liked poster, the dino feeding on the shark, a pun on Jaws also felt meh to me. Now I am a convert. Rooting for JW2 winning the summer and Gold-blooming everywhere.

Incredibles 2 over $500M due to little to no family competition.

[redfirebird2008]

Great Monday number, fairly similar to Inception's 47% when you account for much stronger Discount Tuesday in 2017 compared to 2010. 

[JohnnyGossamer]

4 minutes ago, Finnick said:

 

[Premium George]

2 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

You know, the last two to really breakout to insane numbers were Avengers and Jurassic World. Neither was expected to big anywhere near as big as they were... So, I have a bad answer... I have no idea. The obvious choices would be Deadpool 2, Wonder Woman 2, Avengers 3, Guardians 3, Jurassic World 2, Incredibles 2. I just don't know though. No one thought Avengers would challenge Dark Knight Rises and the Avengers destroyed it at the box office. No one though Jurassic World would challenge Ultron and Jurassic World destroyed it at the box office.

Looking back there had been good surprises every year. This year wondy winning summer. Last year dory, then jurrasic world, then gotg, and in 2013 not summer but that year frozen beat Iron man 3 Worldwide.

Next year one among Infinity war, JW2, and han solo is expected to win summer. Lets see if dp2 or i2 will upset or some other movie. 

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

The popularity in IMAX will likely mute both increases and decreases. So expect a smaller bump than normal today, and probably a softer fall than normal on Wednesday. Gitesh sounds about right, 75m is the target through Thursday, though I expect the weekend to be stronger than a 50% drop from OW, even with strong the strong preview factored in.

Edited July 25, 2017 by Jayhawk

[JohnnyGossamer]

6 minutes ago, Cochofles said:

 

He seems to love reminding people that Wonder Woman is not as impressive as everyone claims.  

This is like the third thread in which he repeatedly assures us that as great as WW's legs are, they are not as great as such-and-such film's WOM. Well duh. Of course there are plenty of films that obliterate WW's legs.  

Wonder Woman's legs are impressive as hell but its overall DOM gross is not as impressive especially when compared against the true giants of summer blockbusters of 21st Century. Is that even disputable?

Edited July 25, 2017 by JohnnyGossamer

[a2k]

7 minutes ago, YourMother said:

 

Godzilla V Kong: Dawn of Justice: 5%

imo 0%. Godzilla did 200 and Kong:Skull Island did 168. I don't see why there is even a 0.1% chance that GvK should do 500.

[YM!]

TBH I think Godzilla vs Kong has a very small chance (5%) to be a $500M summer juggernaut.

[YM!]

Just now, a2knet said:

imo 0%. Godzilla did 200 and Kong:Skull Island did 168. I don't see why there is even a 0.1% chance that GvK should do 500.

In the event that WB does a kick ass marketing campaign, and Godzilla 2 (with Mothra, KG, and Rodan) jumps from 1 to $300M it has a very small chance.