DUNKIRK WEEKEND THREAD | ABSOLUTELY NO SPOILERS | Official estimates Dunkirk 50.5M, GT 30.3M, SMH 22M, Apes 20.4M, Val 17M | Wonder Woman is the new summer champ with 389M total | Summer Sale is Live!

[grim22]

4 minutes ago, aabattery said:

It'd be nice to squeeze in at least one billion dollar grosser this summer.

Running the numbers, 940M looks like the absolute minimum DM3 will finish with. That is just adding 30M more domestic, 100M more in current holdovers minus China and Japan, 20M more in China and 40M more in Japan. And giving Korea and Italy which haven't opened just 25M between them. I think it can add 50M more domestic and 120M more in current holdovers. Will need Korea and Italy to squeeze in the additional 10-15M and China and Japan to squeeze in the remaining 5-10M to get to 1B. If it comes within striking distance, Universal might just keep it in theaters long enough to pass the mark.

 

At this point, I actually think DM3 has a fair shot at 1B. It is the only shot at 1B this summer has. Winning the summer WW is a lock.

[That One Girl]

worldwide box office is a fake social construct

[Kvikk Lunsj]

33 minutes ago, grim22 said:

DM3 looks locked to win the summer WW. It has another 35-40M to come from China, another 40M to come from Japan and a minimum of another 40M from domestic, these alone would put it over Guardians 2. It has a pretty outside shot at 1B as well now.

You can practically see it from here

Edited July 25, 2017 by Dexter of Suburbia

[Plain Old Tele]

2 minutes ago, Dexter of Suburbia said:

It is so close you can also most see it.

 

See what?

 

 

[Kvikk Lunsj]

5 minutes ago, Emperor Tele-Limai said:

 

See what?

 

 

A Billion dollars

Edited July 25, 2017 by Dexter of Suburbia

[Mojoguy]

Spider Man for the 4th time :lol: I'm kinda getting tired of it at this point...

SMH's chance at 1B WW died with its second and third weekend drops.

[aabattery]

Apparently Universal hit 4B world-wide for the year so far. Disney's at 3.5B right now. Good year for Universal, although their slate is pretty much done. Disney still has a few big ones left so they should win the year pretty handedly. 

[babz06]

1 hour ago, aabattery said:

Apparently Universal hit 4B world-wide for the year so far. Disney's at 3.5B right now. Good year for Universal, although their slate is pretty much done. Disney still has a few big ones left so they should win the year pretty handedly. 

universal got more bang for their buck though. 

[the beast]

What Could Dunkirk's Monday Numbers Be?

[FantasticBeasts]

2 hours ago, grim22 said:

Running the numbers, 940M looks like the absolute minimum DM3 will finish with. That is just adding 30M more domestic, 100M more in current holdovers minus China and Japan, 20M more in China and 40M more in Japan. And giving Korea and Italy which haven't opened just 25M between them. I think it can add 50M more domestic and 120M more in current holdovers. Will need Korea and Italy to squeeze in the additional 10-15M and China and Japan to squeeze in the remaining 5-10M to get to 1B. If it comes within striking distance, Universal might just keep it in theaters long enough to pass the mark.

 

At this point, I actually think DM3 has a fair shot at 1B. It is the only shot at 1B this summer has. Winning the summer WW is a lock.

I think you are even underestimating the remaining markets. In the 5 markets that DM3 hasn't opened (Italy,South Korea,Greece,Turkey,can't remember the last ne), Minions did $52m.

Given that the drop from Minions in overseas markets is minuscule, I can see DM3 earning $45m from those..

[a2k]

2 hours ago, Mojoguy said:

SMH's chance at 1B WW died with its second and third weekend drops.

SMH barely has a shot at 900 ww.

 

Going optimistic,

572 current ww cume + 60 more dom (311.5 final) + 40 Japan + 140 China + 80 current OS markets = 892

 

850 is more realistic....572 + 53 more dom (~305 final) + 30 J + 120 China + 75 current OS markets = 850

[MCKillswitch123]

11 hours ago, CJohn said:

@MCKillswitch123 should we consider moving?

 

Dunkirk's OW is good but Baywatch... JESUS! Cars 3 underperformer with yet another horrible mkt campaign from Disney.

 

http://www.ica-ip.pt/fotos/downloads/ranking_fds_20_a_23_julho_2017_1645372620597600733bafe.pdf

Cars 3 and Baywatch did more than Dunkirk? 

 

That's just sad to see.

 

Yeah, let's just move to Canada. There's a lot of Tuga people there, the locals are the nicest people on the planet, and it's always breezy (which is preferrable to suffocating heat like the one we have here).

[eXtacy]

3 hours ago, grim22 said:

DM3 looks locked to win the summer WW. It has another 35-40M to come from China, another 40M to come from Japan and a minimum of another 40M from domestic, these alone would put it over Guardians 2. It has a pretty outside shot at 1B as well now.

Dont know where u arrived at that but its probably only getting 15m more from China

[a2k]

top 5 summer looking like:

dm3 970

gotg2 860

smh 840

wondr 820

potc5 790

[MinaTakla]

33 minutes ago, eXtacy said:

Dont know where u arrived at that but its probably only getting 15m more from China

@grim22later changed it to 20m instead of 35-40m after looking closely at all the numbers. Here is his latest analysis:

732 + 30 DOM + 100 + 15 (instead of 20) China + 40 Japan + 25 (SK+I) = 947m WW. (lower end as per his projections)

His higher end projections are below:

4 hours ago, grim22 said:

Running the numbers, 940M looks like the absolute minimum DM3 will finish with. That is just adding 30M more domestic, 100M more in current holdovers minus China and Japan, 20M more in China and 40M more in Japan. And giving Korea and Italy which haven't opened just 25M between them. I think it can add 50M more domestic and 120M more in current holdovers. Will need Korea and Italy to squeeze in the additional 10-15M and China and Japan to squeeze in the remaining 5-10M to get to 1B. If it comes within striking distance, Universal might just keep it in theaters long enough to pass the mark.

 

At this point, I actually think DM3 has a fair shot at 1B. It is the only shot at 1B this summer has. Winning the summer WW is a lock.

Edited July 25, 2017 by MinaTakla

[a2k]

theater drop? what theater drop

 

Jul 21–23

9

$4,608,028

-32.3%

1,971

-773

$2,338

$389,011,307

8

[XO21]

Will Spidey have double features with Emoji?

[dxmatrixdt]

4 minutes ago, XO21 said:

Will Spidey have double features with Emoji?

Probably but it will barely show in the dailies.  It only matters when you have a 100M+ opener attached to 100+ double feature drive in venues with a film of the same studio.  Then it could add a couple million, but the bump only shows if the movie is already performing on a downward trajectory.  When Civil War came out, it was unnoticeable with Jungle Book even though it prob gave Jungle Book an extra million.  But when Dory came out, the bump did show with Alice 2 since Alice 2 was crashing.  With a smaller opening Emoji would give Baby Driver or Spider-Man a couple extra 100K.  If they decide to go with Smurfs, then you could see it add maybe 50 locations this weekend and jump up to 250K for a $5,000 average but that is as good as you are going to get.

Edited July 25, 2017 by Matrix4You

[a2k]

4 minutes ago, XO21 said:

Will Spidey have double features with Emoji?

I think Spidey is in for a low 40s drop.

In the 3rd weekend it fell right in between Ant-Man's 46.5% and Minion's 53.5%.

 

In the 4th weekend Ant-Man fell 38% and Minion's fell 46%. Splitting the difference, hope 42% happens for Spidey.

 

42-43% drop will be 12.6-12.8 weekend. So hoping for 12.5 at least. Will leave it on track for 305.

[ZeeSoh]

2 hours ago, a2knet said:

I think Spidey is in for a low 40s drop.

In the 3rd weekend it fell right in between Ant-Man's 46.5% and Minion's 53.5%.

 

In the 4th weekend Ant-Man fell 38% and Minion's fell 46%. Splitting the difference, hope 42% happens for Spidey.

 

42-43% drop will be 12.6-12.8 weekend. So hoping for 12.5 at least. Will leave it on track for 305.

Alternatively it could follow MoS (which it has done so far - albiet better slightly). It had a similar drop this weekend. That fell 49% in its 4th weekend. I guess the coming weekend will show if it is following Antman/Minions or MoS legs.