Weekend Thread. Dark Tower 19.5...Dunkirk 17.6....Emoji 12.3...Girls Trip 11.4 not sure what page| Not the sex thread

[MrPink]

Something interesting to note with Dunkirk, if it can make 500m WW (I would put odds against), that means Nolan's original blockbusters will have a combined gross of 2 billion WW.

[WrathOfHan]

Hopefully Wind River increases with actuals; it's less than $500 away from being the third highest PTA of the year

[MCKillswitch123]

Given how frontloaded I expected it to be, The Dark Tower actually performed pretty solidly as far as internal multiplier goes, and while it missed 20M just by 0.5M, it came visibly closer than movies of similar kind like GITS, Valerian and The Great Wall. That being said, for a Summer "tentpole" (LOL Sony ) and for what is supposedly Stephen King's LOTR, 19.5M... ehh. Given the many, many big August breakouts we've seen in the last few years, this really isn't worth tipping my hat over. On the other hand, for having no buzz and all, it was still #1 and came just under 20M, so... yeah. Could've been much more w/good wom, that's for sure.

 

Dunkirk w/a terrific hold, no surprise there. Way ahead of Interstellar and very close to Rogue Nation at this same point in time, which indicates a 185-190M finish at the very least. Not bad at all for a WW2 movie. Wheater or not it crosses 200M is still a question mark, but it's on the table.

 

Emoji actually managed a sub-50% drop? Hmm, not bad. Not bad at all, given the Godawful wom and everything. Sure, not really good either... not for an original animated movie that opened at 24M, but could've been way worse. Annoyingly so.

 

Girls Trip's hold is a little shabbier than I thought it'd be, but still very good all in all. Strongly ahead of Bad Moms at the same point. 125+ is probably a done deal, w/a shot at 130+.

 

10M might as well be 100M for Kidnap. Dumpjob movies like it have no business doing 5M, nevermind double that, or so we believe... but Kidnap broke the mold. Easily the biggest surprise of an otherwise super boring weekend. It could be another 47 Meters Down-esque sleeper hit. Halle Berry still got it.

 

Spidey excellent. Sexy late legs, nobody can say otherwise. It's currently on pace w/Suicide Squad at same point of release, and w/similar if not better late legs, it has a good shot at 325M. For all the gloom and doom after the 60% drop, that ain't so bad after all, hein?

 

Blonde... meh. Not horrible, but also not good. Predictable, if anything. Still, it's already past its production budget, so it's gonna be on the green, and that's fine.

 

Detroit. OOF. I thought that this movie had a strong shot at being another Get Out/Hidden Figures/Compton all-communities emcompassing cry of unity that would enamore audiences, even if I obviously didn't expect it to do anywhere near as well as those (if it did over 70M, that would've been great imo). Didn't really dawn on me that, while all of those were still steady on the entertainment basis of cinema, Detroit would be much more like an endurance test for audiences (you could say it's more like 12 Years A Slave than the other three). I guess nobody was willing to put themselves through something like this, especially when the escapism they look for in films is nulled when they go see a film about something as present as police violence on black people. Saddest thing about its run? It may not even beat The Hurt Locker, like @filmlover said, should the theater drop be massive next weekend. YIIIIIIIKES.

 

Apes finally showing legs, about damn time. Vindication in a theory of mine for once - both SMH and WFTPOTA had the exact same weekend run so far: a 60%+ drop on weekend 2, a 50% drop on weekend 3, and a 40% drop on weekend 4. This means Apes is dropping in the 30's next weekend, everyone!!!! The 150M dream is not dead yet, but I'm looking at 145M right now.

 

DM3... if it were a human, it'd be Stacy Keibler, cause HOT DAYUM those legs. I don't care if you're an Illumination fan or not, it's undeniable how much staying power this movie has had. I find it hard to believe that it won't beat DM1 (unadjusted) at this point.

 

Baby Driver just 3M away from 100.... will probably do it next fucking week  EDGAR FUCKIN' WRIGHT MOTHERFUCKERS

 

Valerian might as well be Old Yeller at this point - just put it out of its misery.

 

Wonder Woman.... what a journey, what a journey. It will cross 400M by Tuesday. Spectacular stuff that I and many people dreamed of, thinking it would be too impossible, but nothing was ever too impossible for Diana Prince. An incredible achievement that will be, to say the bare bones minimum. Can it beat Iron Man 3 and Civil War, though? Cause SM1 is a done deal (bravo Tele).

 

Big Sick still holding on very nicely, there.

 

Wind River w/a very good OW. Not GREAT, but very good. Closest thing to success that TWS has seen in God knows how long.

[YM!]

7 minutes ago, MinaTakla said:

Minions 2 is confirmed for 2020. There were rumors of Shrek 5, which may or may not happen, given that it's not on the schedule so far. With Uni buying Dreamworks, I don't know if it will happen. It was pulled from Box office mojo's schedule last year. 

Actually Ice Age benefited the most btw from the exchange rate even more than Shrek. OS exchange rates were so kind to it in 2009 and 2012 that it added over 400m to its totals in these 2 years compared to now's exchange rates. Today Ice age would have never crossed 2.3B.

I think Minions 2 and the franchise will continue to drop domestically since when adjusted the DM franchise closely follows the Shrek franchise (with the obvious exception of Puss In Boots). But it'll still make oodles of cash overseas (I think we might have our first sub $200M domestic/$1B+ WW grosser in Minions 2).

 

Shrek 5 is still in development. Also I agree on the Ice Age thing.

[a2k]

54 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

I don't have a top 10 list but from looking at various locations on LF Examiner, most of them are in the same range of 59-64 feet tall. There are four that stand out above the others: NYC Lincoln Square is around 76 feet tall, SF Metreon is around 75 feet tall, Ontario (California, not Canada) Palace is around 68 feet tall, and Irvine Spectrum is around 68 feet tall. 

If you are a 4 foot tall kid in SF, the Metreon is bigger for you than Lincoln is for a 6 foot tall man in NYC.

(you do loose out to 4 footers in NYC though)

 

 

 

Is this the worst post of the thread?

Edited August 6, 2017 by a2knet

[grim22]

1 minute ago, a2knet said:

 

 

Is this the worst post of the thread?

Not even close

[a2k]

2 minutes ago, YourMother said:

I think Minions 2 and the franchise will continue to drop domestically since when adjusted the DM franchise closely follows the Shrek franchise (with the obvious exception of Puss In Boots). But it'll still make oodles of cash overseas (I think we might have our first sub $200M domestic/$1B+ WW grosser in Minions 2).

 

Shrek 5 is still in development. Also I agree on the Ice Age thing.

I feel Shrek 5 could go in the opposite way as Ice Age. Shrek has been far more path-breaking a franchise dom at least. Shrek 1 really took on Pixar, and Shrek 2 was the biggest till Dory took over after years of inflation. That followed 1 horrid and 1 mediocre Shrek. But I think people will be willing to give a good Shrek another chance.

[TwoMisfits]

3 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

 

 

Apes finally showing legs, about damn time. Vindication in a theory of mine for once - both SMH and WFTPOTA had the exact same weekend run so far: a 60%+ drop on weekend 2, a 50% drop on weekend 3, and a 40% drop on weekend 4. This means Apes is dropping in the 30's next weekend, everyone!!!! The 150M dream is not dead yet, but I'm looking at 145M right now.

 

 

 

Apes's issue is that it really hasn't stemmed its week-to-week drops on weekdays like Spidey did, and eventually it's gonna lose the screen race to Spidey and other later-releasing movies...its best chance for $145-$150M is to hope all these new releases keep crashing and burning so it can find a way to hold full screens at theaters...I'm worried it's looking at another 700-800 theater drop this week, unless DM3 gets shown the door to Nut Job 2 and Detroit holds horribly all week and gets the "screen drop" by getting only 1-2 shows a day...

[YM!]

Just now, a2knet said:

I feel Shrek 5 could go in the opposite way as Ice Age. Shrek has been far more path-breaking a franchise dom at least. Shrek 1 really took on Pixar, and Shrek 2 was the biggest till Dory took over after years of inflation. That followed 1 horrid and 1 mediocre Shrek. But I think people will be willing to give a good Shrek another chance.

I meant as in overseas exchange rates being bad. Still I think when Shrek 5 is announced it'll be massive, like $500M+/$1.25B massive. The only three animated movies I can see reaching the $500M+ benchmark are Incredibles 2, Frozen 2, and Shrek 5.

[a2k]

7 minutes ago, YourMother said:

I meant as in overseas exchange rates being bad. Still I think when Shrek 5 is announced it'll be massive, like $500M+/$1.25B massive. The only three animated movies I can see reaching the $500M+ benchmark are Incredibles 2, Frozen 2, and Shrek 5.

I see neither coming close to 500

Though am rooting for I2 do beat TS3 if stars are perfectly aligned.

 

F2 375 imo (I just can't see them recreating the magic, especially come up with another 'Let It Go') and Shrek 5 should target Shrek 4's dom being a completely different Shrek : even Myers, Murphy and Diaz are not signed so far.

Edited August 6, 2017 by a2knet

[YM!]

6 minutes ago, a2knet said:

I see neither coming close to 500

Though am rooting for I2 do beat TS3 if stars are perfectly aligned.

 

F2 375 imo (I just can't see them recreating the magic, especially come up with another 'Let It Go') and Shrek 5 should target Shrek 3's dom being a completely different Shrek : even Myers, Murphy and Diaz are not signed so far.

Incredibles 2 has a 15% chance due to the lack of big family films for the first half of 2018 and weak family competition (the one in January 2018-June 1st 2018 that has best chance for $100M is Peter Rabbit and that's not a lock at all.) not to mention the Pixar brand name, no Illumination or powerful animated film ($200M domestic > HT3 + Amuse combined) to severe late legs, and a likely good reception. Not to mention, it's Pixar's most wanted sequel.

 

Frozen 2 has a 25% chance due to how beloved (and imo overrated) the original was. It's also the only true family film of the Holiday Season in 2019. And if IX moves there like I think, WW2 will move and not be a problem. 

 

Shrek 5 has a 15% chance. If they bring back the original cast and make it great, it'll not only have great WOM but a killer OW ($100M+).

Edited August 6, 2017 by YourMother

[Webslinger]

Weak opening for The Dark Tower, but the writing was on the wall between the tellingly short running time, the previous bumps in the release schedule, and the decision to embargo reviews until late Wednesday night. Given how massive and interconnected the books are, it probably would have worked much better as a TV series than as a movie. Thanks to its poor performance, this weekend marks the first time since 1998 that the #1 movie in the first full weekend of August grossed under $20 million.

 

Dunkirk held nicely. It's going to need some extremely impressive late legs to get to $200 million, but it's still in for a very impressive total for a non-sequel sold more on its director's name than on those of its stars.

 

That drop for The Emoji Movie is pretty bad considering the lack of other kids films against it. It also just occurred to me that its opening last weekend was the lowest ever for a film in 4,000 theaters. The toxic reviews definitely did it in.

 

Girls Trip dropped a little harder than I thought it would, but it's still putting together a very solid run.

 

Kidnap far exceeded my low expectations, so I guess it's a (relative) win. Perhaps its success will convince studios to give Halle Berry something interesting to work with again.

 

Spider-Man is developing some very nice late legs.

 

Atomic Blonde got hit hard, but I'm not surprised given some comments about how the film doesn't necessarily match the beats the trailer presents.

 

Detroit posted middling numbers, as expected. I know Annapurna pushed it hard on TV and got a 3,000-theater release, but it always looked too uncomfortable to connect with mainstream audiences right off the bat. I don't think it would have done much (if any) better with a platform-then-expansion strategy closer to the end of the year, but at least it wouldn't have looked like a film that did poorly with the masses. I hope strong word-of-mouth carries it to solid legs despite inevitable theater shedding in the coming weeks (which is what The Big Sick has managed to do), but I won't be surprised if the combination of a weak opening and word about its intensity sink it.

 

I'm glad to see that War for the Planet of the Apes is starting to level out, even if it's too little too late.

[redfirebird2008]

2 minutes ago, Webslinger said:

This weekend marks the first time since 1998 that the #1 movie in the first full weekend of August grossed under $20 million.

 

 

 

Wow. 

[grim22]

Just now, redfirebird2008 said:

 

Wow. 

 

The #15 movie this summer might be just 72M, that's the lowest since 2006, the #12 will be just about 80M which will also match 2006. Been a very uneven summer, no movies can be called outright bombs apart from Arthur and Valerian but most of the movies will just scrape by into profitability or loss mitigation.

[Mockingjay Raphael]

"Annabelle: Creation at a No. 1 $1.1M in Italy (only opening)."

 

Wow, that's a great OW. On par with the first movie and BIGGER than TC2, it's to early to claim anything, but it may be able to cross $150m OS again which would be MASSIVE. Another $200m+ grosser for the TCU!

[Fancyarcher]

4 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

Kidnap is going to do 35M lmao

Nah, more like 25m. WOM seems fairly poor anyway.

4 hours ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

Sci-fi concept with a lot of visual eye candy is much easier to sell to audiences in general, no matter what territory. Just glad Dunkirk won't be a money loser, which it could've been pretty easily.  

That and Dunkirk is a much smaller film in overall scope, and is a harder movie in terms of story-structure to get into when compared to Interstellar. 

 

4 hours ago, MrPink said:

 

South Korea isn't a rejection so much as stiff competition. Local movies crushed it plus Despicable Me 3. Battleship Island had one of the biggest openings of all time. Dunkirk had to give in the process.

 

I don't expect much more than 50m or so in China despite that, but it's not impossible for that # to climb a bit. Plus, China is the kind of market where you do most of your damage in the first week anyway.

South Korea was apparently disappointed with the film as well, with many over there considering it to be Nolan's worst film yet, or something.

Edited August 6, 2017 by Fancyarcher

[MrPink]

5 minutes ago, Fancyarcher said:

Nah, more like 25m. WOM seems fairly poor anyway.

That and Dunkirk is a much smaller film in overall scope, and is a harder movie in terms of story-structure to get into when compared to Interstellar. 

 

South Korea was apparently disappointed with the film as well, with many over there considering it to be Nolan's film yet, or something.

I read the SK thread, it was one of his lower rated films but I don't equate that as disliking the film, but that's just me. Any movie would have been hard with the release date it had, hence it's not gonna make it to 3 million admissions. But that's still a 20m gross.

Edited August 6, 2017 by MrPink

[Fancyarcher]

7 minutes ago, MrPink said:

I read the SK thread, it was one of his lower rated films but I don't equate that as disliking the film, but that's just me. Any movie would have been hard with the release date it had, hence it's not gonna make it to 3 million admissions. But that's still a 20m gross.

Oh definitely, it's done well overseas anyway. I don't think the South Korea gross is a good way to predict the China gross either. China has far more "mainstream / generic" taste when it comes to films, so to say.

Edited August 6, 2017 by Fancyarcher

[eXtacy]

Cant believe emoji movie only dropped 50%. The market place must really be dry for kids films. Maybe thats also why DM3 is doing so well.

[WrathOfHan]

14 minutes ago, eXtacy said:

Cant believe emoji movie only dropped 50%. The market place must really be dry for kids films. Maybe thats also why DM3 is doing so well.

Just think, Emoji could have dropped 40% if families weren't saving up for THE animated film of the year!