Weekend Thread | Actuals (p.100) ~ Thor: Ragnarok - 122.744M, Bad Moms 2 16.759M, Jigsaw 6.558M, Boo 2 4.451M, Geostorm 3.194M | GOLD ACCOUNT SALE (1st post for details) | 91k PTA for Lady Bird

[BadAtGender]

Chart, for people who don't want to click through:

 

1. Thor: Ragnarok (DIS), 4,080 theaters / $46M Fri. (includes $14.5M previews) / 3-day cume: $115M-$120M / Wk 1

2. A Bad Moms Christmas  (STX), 3,615 theaters / $5.5M Fri. / 3-day cume: $15.8M /Total: $20.3M/ Wk 1

3. Jigsaw  (LG), 2,941 theaters / $2M Fri. (-71%) / 3-day cume: $6.4M (-61%)/Total: $28.5M/ Wk 2

4. Boo 2! A Madea Halloween  (LG), 2,202 theaters (-186) / $1.2M Fri. (-53%) / 3-day cume: $4.3M (-57%)/Total: $42.6M Wk 3

5. Geostorm  (WB/SKY), 2,666 theaters (-580)/ $803K Fri. (-48%) / 3-day cume: $2.9M (-51%)/Total: $28.6M/ Wk 3

6. Happy Death Day  (UNI/BLUM), 2,184 theaters (-1,351) / $814K Fri. (-45%) / 3-day cume: $2.6M  (-47%)/ Total: $52.8M/Wk 4

7. Thank You for Your Service  (DW/UNI), 2,083 theaters (+29) / $680K Fri. (-55%) / 3-day cume: $2.4M (-38%)/Total: $7.5M/ Wk 2

8. Blade Runner 2049  (ALC/WB/SONY), 1,464 theaters (-957)/ $611K Fri. (-45%)/ 3-day cume: $2.2M (-45%)/Total: $85.5M/ Wk 5

9. Let There Be Light  (ATLAS), 600 theaters (+227) / $520K Fri. (-15%) / 3-day cume: $1.7M (-1%)/Total: $4.1M/Wk 2

10. Only the Brave  (SONY), 2,073 theaters (-504)/ $508K Fri. (-52%) / 3-day cume: $1.6M (-53%)/Total: $15M/ Wk 3

[Zakiyyah6]

23 minutes ago, Squadron Leader Tele said:

 

Nah, their late night updates are usually pretty close to estimates. 

Yeah I could see 47mil but 50mil? Nope.

[aabattery]

$71k PTA for Lady Bird seems good.

[Fullbuster]

So aabattery is the new moderator 😋

 

Asfor Thor 115-120m OW would be an excellrnt start for this franchise, 300m seems likely to be reached, unless it collapsez completely with JL coming.

[XO21]

16 hours ago, XO21 said:

Based on Deadline estimates the previews/OD would be more frontloaded than Civil War...so yeah I think it has a shot at $120m

 

14.5 

Following SMH/GOGT2 -> 47.85m

Dr Strange/Logan/WW -> 50.3m

Civil War -> 43.79m

 

 

Currently at $46m means more frontloaded than SMH which I find pretty unlikely, I think it'll hit $49m based on RTH #s. So great

[aabattery]

You guys are just setting yourselves up for disappointment.

[DAJK]

Guys, 46 or 49, the film is doing great either way. Should be a happy moment for Marvel fans, CBM fans, or movie fans in general.

[XO21]

6 minutes ago, aabattery said:

You guys are just setting yourselves up for disappointment.

Whatever number it hits isn't a big difference. I had Thor at $102m OW so it's already outdoing my expectations

[baumer]

120 does not guarantee it 300 @EmpireCity.  There' a good chance of course but its not going to cruise past 300. 

[Mulder]

4 minutes ago, The Last baumer said:

120 does not guarantee it 300 @EmpireCity.  There' a good chance of course but its not going to cruise past 300. 

With how generally well received it's been and with such a huge OW in November with the only pressing competition being JL in 2 weeks and SW a month after that I really don't see how it misses 300.

[baumer]

1 minute ago, Mulder said:

With how generally well received it's been and with such a huge OW in November with the only pressing competition being JL in 2 weeks and SW a month after that I really don't see how it misses 300.

 

It missed 300 because a lot of Marvel movies have small multipliers. I'm not saying it will miss 300 only that it's far from locked.

[Mulder]

Just now, The Last baumer said:

 

It missed 300 because a lot of Marvel movies have small multipliers. I'm not saying it will miss 300 only that it's far from locked.

I can't think of any Marvel movie that opened over 100 to miss 300, that'd take some historically bad legs for a film that's gotten overall positive reception. I mean if JL happens to be a mega-sized Avengers 1 style hit ((Which is very unlikely)) then sure, but beyond that it's safe to say that it's guaranteed to hit 300 with a OW this big. 

[Darth Lehnsherr]

6 minutes ago, The Last baumer said:

 

It missed 300 because a lot of Marvel movies have small multipliers. I'm not saying it will miss 300 only that it's far from locked.

True but generally those films either have RDJ starring or have poor reviews (The Incredible Hulk and Thor: The Dark World). Ragnarok has neither of those things. 

Edited November 4, 2017 by Darth Lehnsherr

[baumer]

3 hours ago, Mulder said:

I can't think of any Marvel movie that opened over 100 to miss 300, that'd take some historically bad legs for a film that's gotten overall positive reception. I mean if JL happens to be a mega-sized Avengers 1 style hit ((Which is very unlikely)) then sure, but beyond that it's safe to say that it's guaranteed to hit 300 with a OW this big. 

 

Civil War had 2.27 legs.

Dark World had 2.4

 

I'm just saying, with a 2.4X it misses 300, if it opens to 120.  If it opens to 130, then 300 is much easier to attain.

[baumer]

3 hours ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

True but generally those films either have RDJ starring or have poor reviews (The Incredible Hulk and Thor: The Dark World). Ragnarok has neither of those things. 

 

Dark World had an A- cinemascore.  

[baumer]

Look, you guys might think I'm saying it might miss 300 because I didn't like it, but that's not true.  I'm simply stating how front loaded a lot of Marvel films can be.  There's films that aren't frontloaded of course, like SMH, but Thor and many of the Avenger films lately, have been frontloaded.  So if this gets a 2.4X or slightly less, wouldn't be shocking.

[DeeCee]

Doctor Strange had a multiplier of 2.73 at the same time last year. 

 

$115m x 2.61 and Ragnarok clears $300m. $120m and it only needs 2.5. 

 

 

[Mulder]

3 minutes ago, The Last baumer said:

 

Civil War had 2.27 legs.

Dark World had 2.4

 

I'm just saying, with a 2.4X it misses 300, if it opens to 120.  If it opens to 130, then 300 is much easier to attain.

I mean I'm not saying it's impossible, I'm just saying it's so unlikely that I think it's safe to say it'd hit 300. I mean even Iron Man 2 crossed 300 unadjusted.

[baumer]

3 hours ago, DeeCee said:

Doctor Strange had a multiplier of 2.73 at the same time last year. 

 

$115m x 2.61 and Ragnarok clears $300m. $120m and it only needs 2.5. 

 

 

 

Sure, a new character.  Thor 3 should be much more front loaded than that one.

[baumer]

3 hours ago, Mulder said:

I mean I'm not saying it's impossible, I'm just saying it's so unlikely that I think it's safe to say it'd hit 300. I mean even Iron Man 2 crossed 300 unadjusted.

 

Yea, on a 128 OW.  If Thor goes that high then I agree 300 is very likely.  If it opens to 120, it could miss.  The higher it opens, the better chances of 300, obviously.  I think it gets a 2.4X, So if it opens higher than 125,I concede that it will hit 300.