Monday 6 Nov. Numbers: Thor $8.25m (pg6)

[baumer]

18 hours ago, Christmas baumer said:

Thor Rag just fell 75% on Monday.  Is that really a great hold?  I'm not sure this indicates great WOM or if it indicates that all the loonies rushed out to see it the first weekend.  

 

It's also hard to compare it to any film right now because of Veteran/Remembrance Day falling on a Saturday.  

 

18 hours ago, Christmas baumer said:

Also, I wouldn't say the WOM on this is outstanding just yet.  The Marvel loonies are the ones rushing out to see it first.  They are going to like it of course.  But the reviews for it on imdb are kind of split.  I'm just saying that this isn't the panacea that everyone is claiming it to be.  The Monday drop is pretty shit.  And while the first Monday doesn't really mean all that much, it certainly dropped more than CW and DS.

 

18 hours ago, Christmas baumer said:

 

It seems like I don't get loonie with the multipliers.  I didn't make the right call with SMH.  Big deal.  There are plenty of other Marvel movies that were the reason for my prediction.  And a 75% Monday drop doesn't indicate a great hold or outstanding WOM.  I concede that it's too soon to say whether the WOM is good or not but it's also too early to say it's going to have outstanding WOM also.

 

18 hours ago, Christmas baumer said:

 

It's rating is high because it's the first weekend.  

 

And if you read the reviews on imdb, chronologically, in other words, not using IMDB's flawed and biased system, the reviews are split.

 

It's okay everyone, you can love the film, no one can take that away from you.  But it's not loved by everyone else.  Not yet anyway.

 

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt3501632/reviews?filter=chrono

 

All posts where I say that the jury is still out and that it could be a leggy film or it could not.

[baumer]

17 hours ago, Christmas baumer said:

Chances are I'm going to miss some movies, but since 2008, here are all the sequels released in November (excluding animation) and their multipliers:

 

2008:

 

Quantum of Solace:  2.5

Transporter 3:  2.58

 

2009:

 

Twilight New Moon:  2.08

 

2010:

 

Deathly Hallows 1:  2.37

 

2011:

 

Breaking Dawn 1:  2.03

Harold and Kumar 3:  2.69

 

2012:

 

BD2:  2.07

 

2013:

 

Hunger Games CF:  2.68

Thor 2:  2.42

Best Man Holiday:  2.33

 

2014:

 

Mockingjay 1:  2.76

Dumb and Dumber To:  2.38

 

2015:

 

Mockingjay 2:  2.75

Spectre:  2.85

 

2016:  

 

None

 

So with the exception of the Hunger Games films, and one Bond film, not a lot of sequels have hit 2.6X.  Again, not saying it can't but releasing a sequel in November means statistically speaking, it's harder to hit a 2.6X, unless you are Katniss.  5 out of the 14 films exceeded 2.6 and three of those were Katniss.

 

 

 

 

and hard data to show that sequels in November have a hard time exceeding 2.6.

[ZattMurdock]

We'll have a better idea of where this is heading after this weekend and most of all how Ragnarok holds to Justice League's OW. I honestly can see this raking all winter. It's just a fun film with a way better 4 quadrant target demographic than Spidey: a teenage comedy. 

[WrathOfHan]

 

 

3 minutes ago, Christmas baumer said:

 

I did nothing of the sort.  In fact I have claimed that it's too early in the run to determine what the multiplier will and whether or not it has good wom.  I said the Monday drop indicates that the WOM might not be great and that it is not great amongst regular movie goers.  Would you like me to bring up the posts from a few pages back?

 

It's like clockwork at this site, say anything that isn't beamingly positive about a Marvel film and people get upset and accuse you of blasphemy.

Most if not all Monday drops for Marvel movies outside of the summer are in the 70s. I really don't know what you're trying to convey with your "WOM might be weak" argument. 

[75Live]

7 minutes ago, Christmas baumer said:

 

Wouldn't shock me if it does more than 2.6 as well.  

 

you can't say that because it stops all the argument of the imaginary thing you didn't say  

[baumer]

3 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

 

 

Most if not all Monday drops for Marvel movies outside of the summer are in the 70s. I really don't know what you're trying to convey with your "WOM might be weak" argument. 

 

I'm trying to convey that WOM might be weak.  

[ZattMurdock]

11 minutes ago, Christmas baumer said:

 

and hard data to show that sequels in November have a hard time exceeding 2.6.

Now this data is interesting. Based on how the film is ACTUALLY being perceived, I now thing that somewhere in between x2.7-2.8 is where Ragnarok's multiplier will land. 

[Lordmandeep]

23 minutes ago, Christmas baumer said:

 

I did nothing of the sort.  In fact I have claimed that it's too early in the run to determine what the multiplier will and whether or not it has good wom.  I said the Monday drop indicates that the WOM might not be great and that it is not great amongst regular movie goers.  Would you like me to bring up the posts from a few pages back?

 

It's like clockwork at this site, say anything that isn't beamingly positive about a Marvel film and people get upset and accuse you of blasphemy.

 

 

I think for a fact it will have much better WOM the JL will have. 

[baumer]

3 hours ago, Lordmandeep said:

 

 

I think for a fact it will have much better WOM the JL will have. 

 

Factually you cannot prove this yet. 

 

[Lordmandeep]

Just now, Christmas baumer said:

 

Factually you cannot prove this yet. 

 

 

 

Zack Synder

 

Enough Said.

 

[JohnnyGossamer]

23 minutes ago, ZattMurdock said:

I'm thinking that 2.7 is safe. Getting to a 2.8 multiplier is a different story, but it definitely could happen, depending on how public receives Justice League. So basically what I'm saying is that Ragnarok is going for 329.4, with a shot of going for around $340m, it's probably reaching $800m ww. 

Not really seeing anything quite that high DOM. Realistic goal, high end, should be over Suicide Squad DOM.

[grey ghost]

44 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

Ragnarok opened much higher than Doctor Strange, so all things equal it should have a worse multiplier.

 

And all things are not equal: it is a threequel and with two Avengers is much more fanboy-friendly than the introduction of a new character.

Guardians of the Galaxy 2?

[MrGlass2]

4 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

Guardians of the Galaxy 2?

Well, it does have a worse multiplier than Doctor Strange?

[ZattMurdock]

17 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Not really seeing anything quite that high DOM. Realistic goal, high end, should be over Suicide Squad DOM.

x2.7 from 122 would put Ragnarok at $329.4m. Not going exact multipliers, that's why I'm saying that x2.7 is safe.

[grey ghost]

1 minute ago, MrGlass2 said:

Well, it does have a worse multiplier than Doctor Strange?

Slightly.

 

 

[JohnnyGossamer]

7 minutes ago, ZattMurdock said:

x2.7 from 122 would put Ragnarok at $329.4m. Not going exact multipliers, that's why I'm saying that x2.7 is safe.

I think the absolute best case scenario is just over $325M+ DOM.

[Ephemeris]

1 hour ago, Christmas baumer said:

It's not that well liked, not by the general audience anyway.

Not sure where statements like this come from. Every reliable metric suggests that it's very well liked by the general audience. While it is too early to say how good legs will be, we already have enough evidence to say that WOM is good.

 

But good WOM and good legs are obviously not mutually inclusive. Other factors are having a negative impact on its legs(fan rush, being a threequel, etc) so it's going to be frontloaded to a degree, but that's not evidence that WOM is bad.

Edited November 8, 2017 by Ephemeris

[KJsooner]

Just now, Ephemeris said:

Not sure where statements like this come from. Every reliable metric suggests that it's very well liked by the general audience. While it is too early to say how good legs will be, we already have enough evidence to say that WOM is good.

 

Good WOM and good legs are obviously not mutually inclusive. Other factors are having a negative impact on its legs(fan rush, being a threequel, etc) so it's going to be frontloaded to a degree, but that's not evidence that WOM is bad.

 

Its bc baumer didn’t like it, he’s saying the ga also didn’t. Which is not true at all.

[a2k]

2.5-2.6x imo (gives 307-319 dom, 313 in the middle). as a tri-quel approaching DS's multi (2.74x) will be tough.

with JL releasing soon and SW8 affecting everything to some degree (late legs in this case) 2.6-2.65x seems very unlikely to me if not impossible.

[YM!]

42 minutes ago, KJsooner said:

 

Its bc baumer didn’t like it, he’s saying the ga also didn’t. Which is not true at all.

Everyone in the GA like MCU movies. The difference is to tell how much they are liked. That’s why others aren’t predicting strong legs. CW was loved and it has MCU’s worst legs. MCU sequels outside of GV2 and TWS don’t have good legs.

Edited November 8, 2017 by YourMother