MovieMan89 Posted May 30, 2018 Share Posted May 30, 2018 5 minutes ago, water said: i don't understand the blanket underestimation of aladdin i'm seeing on here. it's one of the most well-known and beloved properties around the world Most think it has mismatched director/casting choices, and beyond that it has a horrendous release date. As if Memorial Day itself wasn't getting bad enough for Disney movie openings, it gets no room to breathe before SLOP2 and TS4 come right after to cut off any legs. I think 325 or so is the best case scenario unless it moves. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YM! Posted May 30, 2018 Share Posted May 30, 2018 50 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said: Toy Story 4 - $400M Awfully high for TS4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrylos 7 Posted May 30, 2018 Share Posted May 30, 2018 1 hour ago, YourMother the Edgelord said: I was down for IW and admitted I was wrong, I always believed in Black Panther, hell I was one of the first to join Panther over IW. You can even find an AMATW over Solo club here by my hand. As for CM, yes I know of her importance but the only three of the Marvel solo origins (I don’t count Spider-Man due to a reboot) have done over $300M (IM, BP, Guardians), and while I agree $300M is happening, I just don’t know about $400M mainly cause Wonder Woman beat it to the punch of being the first female superhero movie and I don’t know if it’ll have the same effect. Cool, I am not even talking u.s when speaking box office , my mind is always on the worldwide box office. So yeah you have a point , domestic CM might do slightly less than WW (though that remains to be seen) but worldwide I really believe CM will beat WW (and SM HC ) with ease. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAJK Posted May 30, 2018 Share Posted May 30, 2018 (edited) 18 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said: Awfully high for TS4 I don’t see why it can’t at least hit 350. 400 May be slightly high, but TS brand is still huge Edited May 30, 2018 by DAJK Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCKillswitch123 Posted May 30, 2018 Share Posted May 30, 2018 1 hour ago, YourMother the Edgelord said: Frozen 2 (which may suffer from oversaturaion) and Wonder Woman 2 may hurt each other. I don’t see why CM would be bigger than WW and Homecoming won’t have a high enough jump. They could hurt each other, but at the same time, Frozen 2 seems too big of an event to miss 400, especially with not a whole lot of competition + Holiday legs to boost its staying power. It could be the 1st Thanksgiving 3-day 100M+ opener ever (and it would almost assuredly break the animated OW record were it not for the 5-day opening). 400M doesn't mean bigger than Wonder Woman (412). I don't believe CM will make that much, but I'm not gonna count her out considering that, while yes, WW beat her to the female CBM hero post-2012 novelty, CM will only be the 2nd one to do it, AND she will have the Marvel brand backing her up, so it could balance out fine. Homecoming I agree won't do it (I'm seeing more like a Guardians 1 to 2 type jump), but again, never say never when it comes to the Marvel machine, especially since this one will probably carry the weight of Avengers 4 straight away with it (and I imagine it will feature some of the Avengers in it). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YM! Posted May 30, 2018 Share Posted May 30, 2018 26 minutes ago, DAJK said: I don’t see why it can’t at least hit 350. 400 May be slightly high, but TS brand is still huge Pets 2 and Aladdin are going to hurt it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAJK Posted May 30, 2018 Share Posted May 30, 2018 8 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said: Pets 2 and Aladdin are going to hurt it Aladdin will be making 10-15M at best the weekend TS4 comes out IMO. Even BatB made only 13.7 on its 5th weekend. Don't think that one will be much of an issue. Pets will definitely put a dent in it. First one made 30M in its third weekend, so while I don't think this'll top the first one, it could definitely be making something in the low or mid 20's for its third weekend. I'm saying it opens to 90M, makes 45 second weekend, and 24 third weekend. TS4 I think will open around 90-100, but if Pets is going to hurt it in any way, it will really only be for opening weekend since after that, it's pretty much a non-factor. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted May 30, 2018 Share Posted May 30, 2018 58 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said: Awfully high for TS4 For a franchise whose three predecessors all adjust between 400-500m? I really don't think so. People are letting their personal opinion that the movie is unnecessary cloud their judgment here. The franchise is still hugely relevant with kids and the pedigree of its quality is simply unmatched. Kids won't see it as "unnecessary." Besides, none of the TS sequels felt necessary, every single one has felt like it ended on a definitive conclusion without needing a sequel. Even if I am expecting the weakest link of the four, there's no way I expect something mediocre. This isn't Cars, I trust Pixar wouldn't do that with this franchise and it wouldn't be getting made if the idea really wasn't any good. Should be Dory quality at least. The only downside is it's sandwiched between SLOP2 and TLK, which is why I do expect it to be the least attended out of the four and take a hit to its legs. But I think 120/400 is very doable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB33 Posted May 30, 2018 Share Posted May 30, 2018 I just can't get over Guy Ritchie helming ALADDIN. No hype for me personally purely because of the director choice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted May 30, 2018 Share Posted May 30, 2018 3 minutes ago, JB33 said: I just can't get over Guy Ritchie helming ALADDIN. No hype for me personally purely because of the director choice. It's the most bizarre directorial choice in ages. I can't think of why either Disney or Ritchie would have wanted to pursue it. Makes no sense from either side. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fabiopazzo2 Posted May 30, 2018 Share Posted May 30, 2018 Avengers 4 probably decrease from IW. It's normal Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rorschach Posted May 30, 2018 Share Posted May 30, 2018 I see WW2 decreasing from the first film. It probably won’t have the same repeat business that the first film had. The first film had the benefit of being released in the summer and admidst a really weak slate of competition. The sequel has a lot more competition and I just can’t foresee outgrossing the original. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted May 30, 2018 Share Posted May 30, 2018 3 minutes ago, fabiopazzo2 said: Avengers 4 probably decrease from IW. It's normal I think it all depends on reception. If it's unanimously liked the way IW seems to have been, I absolutely see an increase. Divisive or lukewarm reception will absolutely get it a decrease. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted May 30, 2018 Share Posted May 30, 2018 (edited) 1. Avengers 4: 730M 2. The Lion King: 660M 3. Episode IX: 560M 4. Frozen 2: 450M 5. Captain Marvel: 420M 6. Wonder Woman 2: 380M 7. Jumanji: 370M (if it's even coming out in 2019) 8. Spider-Man 2: 360M 9. Aladdin: 350M 10. It Chapter 2: 310M 11. Toy Story 4: 300M 12. Dumbo: 250M 13. The Secret Life of Pets 2: 245M 14. Hobbs and Shaw: 240M 15. Detective Pikachu: 230M I feel pretty good about there being a lot of 200M+ grossers next year; Bond, Glass, LEGO, and Us all stand pretty good chances, plus there's the other DC movies. Edited May 30, 2018 by WrathOfHan 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eric Furiosa Posted May 30, 2018 Share Posted May 30, 2018 1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said: 15. Detective Pikachu: 230M Han. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YM! Posted May 30, 2018 Share Posted May 30, 2018 16 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said: Detective Pikachu: 230M Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YM! Posted May 30, 2018 Share Posted May 30, 2018 16 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said: I feel pretty good about there being a lot of 200M+ grossers next year; Bond, Glass, LEGO, and Us all stand pretty good chances, plus there's the other DC movies. Doubtful on that one but I’d like it very much. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
water Posted May 30, 2018 Share Posted May 30, 2018 (edited) 3 hours ago, MovieMan89 said: Most think it has mismatched director/casting choices, 1 hour ago, JB33 said: I just can't get over Guy Ritchie helming ALADDIN. No hype for me personally purely because of the director choice. 58 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said: It's the most bizarre directorial choice in ages. I can't think of why either Disney or Ritchie would have wanted to pursue it. Makes no sense from either side. ok am i missing something about him lol. i never knew anything about him, watched man from uncle and king arthur, and i thought both were really stylish, obviously in completely different ways. i came out of them thinking this was the perfect person to bring another completely different world to life. then i went back and found out he did sherlock holmes which is yet another completely different world executed well. like idk they just all seem to have a lot of confidence and gusto. plus this one is a direct adaptation so it's really just about translating what already exists to live action like with batb, it's not like he has to come up with the character arcs. i'm genuinely confused as to why the aladdin movie seems anything but foolproof tbh Edited May 30, 2018 by water 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted May 30, 2018 Share Posted May 30, 2018 300m predictions for TS4 are crazy to me. The admissions drop for that would be absurd and completely unjustified for such a beloved franchise that has never died off in new generational appeal. People must really be expecting it to suck, and again that seems foolish given that Pixar is well aware of how beloved all three movies have been. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YM! Posted May 30, 2018 Share Posted May 30, 2018 (edited) 1.) Lion King $800M 2.) 4vengers 4ever $700M 3.) IX $560M 4.) Frozen 2 $440M 5.) WW2 $385M 6.) Jumanji 2 $380M 7.) Homecoming 2 $370M 8.) It Chapter 2 $325M 9.) Pets 2 $320M 10.) Toy Story 4 $310M 11.) Aladdin $290M 12.) Shazam $265M 13.) Dumbo $250M 14.) Godzilla 2 $230M 15.) Hobbs and Shaw $205M Run down: $150M-$199M: LEGO 2, Bond, Dragon 3, Sonic The Hedgehog, The One and Only Ivan, Glass, Men In Black, Us, Top Gun $100M-$149M: Dark Phoenix, New Mutants, Terminator, JWC3, Dr Dolittle, Spies, Instant Family, Pet Sementary, Rocketman, Death on The Nile Edited May 30, 2018 by YourMother the Edgelord Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
