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The Panda

Top Grossing Movies of 2019 Predicts

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Because predicting the box office is a stress reliever for me, and it's a very stressful period of the year, I decided I'd throw some guesses at unfinished movies that don't have any trailers, any form of data to get a decent idea of tracking, and no guarantee at even making the date.  Feel free to also put your premature predictions in this thread, or laugh at my ridiculous predicts (and their reasonings)

 

January

Ad Astra 

20m

55m DOM

140m WW

A science fiction epic thriller with a star studded cast in January?  I'd say this has potential, especially since James Gray is an excellent up and coming filmmaker, but he's also very dry and not appealing to those outside the arthouse crowd (just watch The Lost City of Z or The Immigrant, and you'll understand why his understated work wouldn't play well with the general audience).

 

Glass

35m OW

115m DOM

285m WW

Assuming Shyamalan is able to keep up his streak, and not fall back into his Last Airbender days, I see no reason this can't near repeat what Split was able to do this year.

 

Spies in Disguise

55m OW

170m DOM

480m WW

Tom Holland and Will Smith in a major studio animated film?  The concept sounds like it'll play well to the family demographic, no matter the quality, so I expect a Boss Baby like run from it.

 

Playmobil

Prediction: Won't actually get made.

 

February

 

Flarsky

35m

110m DOM

270m WW

Comedies are always hard to predict, but this has both Seth Rogen and Charlize Theron, in a comedy about journalism, politics and affairs.  Assuming the drama in Washington doesn't die down in two years (likely won't), satire based off of it should play well.

 

The LEGO Movie 2

50m OW

165m DOM

300m WW

This should continue the diminishing returns from LEGO Batman, there's less goodwill and novelty to the franchise now.

 

Silver and Black

30m OW

85m DOM

165m WW

Assuming this gets made, it's a random D-List Spider-Man spin-off from Sony, that is opening in a crowded market.  I think it ultimately underperforms and goes unnoticed.

 

Gambit

85m OW

190m DOM

520m WW

Gore Verbinski is an off-on kind of filmmaker, but I can see this continuing Fox's streak of strong solo X-Men outings by making something creative and edgy from it.  That's assuming Verbinski is able to turn this into something that isn't conventional.

 

Isn't It Romantic

30m OW

110m DOM

240m WW

A Valentine's Day comedy starring Fat Amy from Pitch Perfect, it could go either way depending on the quality, but I think audiences will bite, even if it's frontloaded for Valentine's Day.  The only problem is Flarsky opening the week before, but that's a different kind of comedy.

 

 

March

 

How to Train Your Dragon 3

45m OW

170m DOM

650m WW

I think Universal will be able to market this better than Fox, however I also expect it to follow the Kung Fu Panda 3 trend and flatline off of the sequels gross.  I do think less competition will help its decrease be by a little less, however.

 

Captain Marvel

105m OW

280m DOM

690m WW

Maybe Marvel's hotstreak will continue into 2019, maybe audiences will finally be done with superheroes, but I do think another female superhero story could play really well.  I also see no reason to bet against a nice hit from the MCU at this point.

 

Amusement Park

34m OW

110m DOM

400m WW

Animation does well during the Spring, and there isn't a major blockbuster animated release, so I think this should play well even with Httyd3 a few weeks before.

 

Untitled Jordan Peele Project

38m OW

140m DOM

350m WW

Will lightning strike twice for Peele?  I'm not sure, but after Get Out I wouldn't bet against whatever he makes being able to tap into what audiences want to see.

 

Godzilla 2

57m OW

150m DOM

700m WW

I think it'll have been long enough since Godzilla (2014) for audiences to be willing to give this another go, especially if they go about the marketing campaign in a correctionary manner, similar to how Kong was marketed.  I still don't expect it to pull the same kind of opening weekend as the first though.

 

Dumbo (2019)

35m OW

115m DOM

350m WW

I see this playing out more like a Pete's Dragon than a Beauty and the Beast.  Dumbo is a well known property, but not one that's particularly beloved or iconic in anyway.  There won't be any way to play the Nostalgia card or play the Wicked card.

 

April

Shazam! (Untitled DC Film)

85m OW

235m DOM

640m WW

No, this isn't guaranteed to be Shazam, so that's part of my prediction, but it's most likely that this is Shazam.  I could see this breaking out a little bit more than 235m, but Shazam isn't the most popular DC character, so I think it'll be a little bit of an uphill battle (especially since this will be the 4th comic book movie of the year already, and it's sandwiched between two MCU movies)

 

May

Avengers: Infinity War Part 2

180m OW

385m DOM

1.3b WW

This will definitely depend on how Part 1 does, but I do think this will either stay flat from Part 1 or slightly decrease, just due to the nature of how these MCU cross-over films work.  Each crossover film slightly shrinks the potential audience, just because there's an evergrowing barrier of entry in what films you need to watch just to even have a clue about what's happening.

 

23 Men in Black

70m OW

210m DOM

450m WW

Assuming this is actually a Men in Black/21 Jump Street crossover, I expect it to do well due to the novelty factor of it all (and because I think the concept could actually be pretty funny and GA appealing)

 

Aladdin

145m OW

406m DOM

920m WW

The only problematic part of this release is just how many Disney remakes are coming out this year, it'll have to share the summer with The Lion King (plus Secret Life of Pets 2 and Toy Story 4), which I think will stop it from being able to pull Beauty and the Beast numbers.  However, I still think it'll be a resounding success.

 

Minecraft

28m OW

85m DOM

200m WW

I would say this could do Angry Birds numbers, but it's opening against Aladdin, it won't even have a chance to get off the ground.

 

June

 

Charlie's Angels

17m OW

55m DOM

150m WW

Another Baywatch waiting to happen, this TV to Movie comedy adaptions don't ever seem to do well.

 

The Secret Life of Pets 2

85m OW

255m DOM

750m WW

There's a lot of family competition, so I think this inevitably declines from the first (which rode off of novelty factor and facing no competition after its release).  This one is sandwiched between mega family movies, so a larger than normal sequel decline is probably coming.

 

Untitled DC Film

I think this is likely Suicide Squad 2, and will probably move to August.

 

New X-Men

50m OW

125m DOM

500m WW

X-Men seems to have a consistent audience, and I assuming this will be another X-Men movie.  I think this one will reach a new low for the franchise though given it'll be surrounded by competition.

 

Toy Story 4

95m OW

300m DOM

850m WW

I think this will underperform expectations.  Toy Story 3 was a culmination of the series for many fans, and so I see interest in this one being lower, while still being a solid success for Pixar.  There's also only so much money the family demographic can spend, and this Summer is packed with family competition (from within house as well).  Still, it's hard seeing a Toy Story film do sub-par numbers, even if this one wasn't really asked for.

 

Cowboy Ninja Viking

35m OW

140m DOM

350m WW

Chris Pratt has a decent amount of starpower, and I think a niche offering like this could play well in a Summer that doesn't have much to offer people who aren't Disney fanatics.

 

Transformers 7

I predict this doesn't get made after The Last Flop.

 

July

Spider-Man: Homecoming 2

125m OW

318.8m DOM

800m WW

I can see a slight increase in OW, while it ultimately falls a tad domestically, compared to the first one.  Marvel movies seem to perform fairly consistently, with a slight touch of diminishing returns, so I expect this movie to follow suit (assuming the quality isn't poor).

 

Top Gun

45m OW

110m DOM

400m WW

Will this appeal to Nostalgia, or will it be another Resurgence?  It'll be hard to tell, but it has Cruise as the helm, the only issue is how much competition this is surrounded by that I think will ultimately dampen its prospects.

 

The Lion King

215m OW

666m DOM

1.75b WW

Beauty and the Beast was massive, so in the middle of the July, The Lion King should be able to pull off true zeitgeist numbers on the level of Jurassic World or The Avengers.  The OW record could potentially be in play depending on how well this marketed, given its Summer release date.  It should also have strong legs due to the deep summer weekdays and being the last Family film to be released.  I'd expect Disney's full marketing effort to go to this one.

 

Fast and Furious Spin-Off

55m OW

130m DOM

600m WW

It'll be a Spin-Off, so given how those tend to perform I expect a hefty decline from F8.  However, as long as The Rock is in it, it'll still have a solid enough audience to be a worldwide hit.

 

August

 

The SpongeBob Movie

40m OW

115m DOM

350m WW

SpongeBob has a fanbase, but I think the desire for this movie will have been saturated a tad by this point.  I still expect the lack of August competition will let it pull decent numbers though.

 

Suicide Squad 2 (Untitled WB Event Film)

95m OW

228m DOM

700m WW

The first one was liked more than people give it credit for, but I still expect a solid decrease from the first film, as I don't see the hype from the first being recreated.

 

September

It: Chapter 2

135m OW

330.5m DOM

760m WW

It was a massive success, and I think this can build on the first's OW, while being a bit more frontloaded (leading to flatlined domestic total).  Plus, this has the benefit of being a sequel planned from the beginning, so the people who saw IT this year will be invested in seeing how the story ends.

 

The Angry Birds Movie 2

26m OW

85m DOM

250m WW

September animations have been inconsistent in their performances, especially movies that didn't have much appeal to begin with (like this one).  I fully expect a decrease from the first Angry Birds Movie, plus another animation opens the next week,

 

Everest (2019)

34m OW

105m DOM

350m WW

DreamWorks has definitely had a resurgence, so I could see this continuing their streak of strong original hits, however this one might lack the blatant child appeal that helped Boss Baby, Trolls and Home to breakout.

 

November

 

Wonder Woman 2

145m OW

400m DOM

950m WW

Wonder Woman was a breakout sensation, and so a substantial OW increase, yet being much more frontloaded, seems like a decent bet for me.  Even then, I still expect relatively strong comic book legs for this one due to the demographics it appeals to.

 

Nicole

40m OW

175m DOM

385m WW

It's been a while since there was a solid family Christmas hit, and this has the right elements to possibly be one (similar to something like Elf).  It could definitely be a countermarket to the other releases around it, while also merging the family and female demographics with Kendrick in the lead role.

 

Frozen 2

125m OW

456m DOM

1.4b WW

I don't expect Frozen 2 to mimic the first's leggy run, nor explode to a ridiculous OW number, but I do see it having a pretty substantial increase from the first, if only due to a much larger OW and having the opportunity to avoid any competition until Star Wars comes out (and it'll be a countermarket option to that).

 

December

Masters of the Universe (2019)

20m OW

60m DOM

180m WW

He-Man definitely isn't popular like it used to be, and while it has its fanbase, it's not an overly large market.  It's also opening right before the climax of the new Star Wars trilogy, so I'd keep reserved expectations for it.

 

Star Wars: Episode IX

250m OW

880m DOM

2.2b WW

It'll be hard to know how this performs without seeing how the Last Jedi does this year, but I expect it to fall inbetween The Force Awakens and the Last Jedi, given that it'll be a conclusion to what is turning out to be a great set of Star Wars films from Disney.

 

Wicked

65m OW

335m DOM

820m WW

I'm mixed on how well this will open against Star Wars, but Wicked has a massive fanbase and despite a more mixed critical reception, has really broken out with the general audience.  We've seen GA members become more receptive to musicals lately, and I think Wicked could be one to really breakthrough.

 

 

 

  1. Star Wars: Episode IX - 880m
  2. The Lion King - 666m
  3. Frozen 2 - 456m
  4. Aladdin - 406m
  5. Wonder Woman 2 - 400m
  6. Avengers: Infinity War Part 2 - 385m
  7. Wicked - 335m
  8. It: Chapter 2 - 330.5m
  9. Spider-Man: Homecoming 2 - 318.8m
  10. Toy Story 4 - 300m
  11. Captain Marvel - 280m
  12. The Secret Life of Pets 2 - 255m
  13. Shazam - 235m
  14. Suicide Squad 2 - 228m
  15. 23 Men in Black - 210m
  16. Gambit - 190m
  17. Nicole - 175m
  18. Spies in Disguise - 170m
  19. How to Train Your Dragon 3 - 170m
  20. The LEGO Movie 2 - 165m
  21. Godzilla 2 - 150m
  22. Cowboy Ninja Viking - 140m
  23. Untitled Jordan Peele Project - 140m
  24. Fast and Furious Spin-Off - 130m
  25. New X-Men - 125m
  26. Dumbo - 115m
  27. The SpongeBob Movie - 115m
  28. Glass - 115m
  29. Top Gun - 110m
  30. Isn't It Romantic - 110m
  31. Flarsky - 110m
  32. Amusement Park - 110m
  33. Everest - 105m
Edited by The Panda
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2019 Box Office Predictions:

1.) IX $250M/$800M

2.) Lion King $265M/$700M

3.) IW2 $225M/$465M

4.) WW2 $160M/$425M

5.) Frozen 2 $150M (5 Day)/$415M

6.) Aladdin $145M (4 Day)/$400M

7.) Suicide Squad 2: $155M/$355M

8.) IT Chapter 2 $140M/$350M

9.) Toy Story 4 $90M/$335M

10.) Shazam $120M/$330M

11.) Homecoming 2 $120M/$310M

12.) Wicked $75M/$300M

13.) Pets 2 $90M/$285M

14.) Captain Marvel $95M/$270M

15.) X Force? $120M/$265M

16.) Godzilla 2 $90M/$230M

17.) Gambit $80M/$225M

18.) Dumbo $75M/$215M

19.) Glass $65M/$200M

20.) Lego 2 $60M/$200M

21.) Nicole $50M/$180M

22.) Spies In Disguise $50M/$175M

23.) Dragon 3 $50M/$160M

24.) Peele Project $35M/$150M

25.) Hobbs and Shaw Forever $65M/$150M

26.) Everest $35M/$120M

27.) Isn’t It Romantic $50M (4 Day)/$115M

28.) Spongebob $30M/$105M

29.) Flarsky $30M/$100M

30.) CNV $30M/$100M

 

Edited by YourMother
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I think if the people behind AD Astra know what they are doing, they will open wide on that date, but give the film an Oscar qualifying limited release on, like, the last weekend of December. With James Gray, that'll be the area of its success.

 

I'm worried for How To Train Your Dragon 3, but only to an extent; this series is undoubtedly popular with the millennial fanbases, and the series as a whole has a healthy stigma of quality. But the last one did disappoint... But hopefully this is the success Dreamworks needs to keep the ball rolling.

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2 hours ago, The Pumpkin Spice Panda said:

The Lion King

215m OW

666m DOM

1.75b WW

Beauty and the Beast was massive, so in the middle of the July, The Lion King should be able to pull off true zeitgeist numbers on the level of Jurassic World or The Avengers.  The OW record could potentially be in play depending on how well this marketed, given its Summer release date.  It should also have strong legs due to the deep summer weekdays and being the last Family film to be released.  I'd expect Disney's full marketing effort to go to this one.

The Lion King remake is the Antichrist?

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Top 15 2019 Predictions:

1) Star Wars 9 - $240M/$820M

2) The Lion King - $225M/$650M

3) Avengers 4 - $185M/$440M

4) Aladdin -$146M/$415M

5) Wonder Woman 2 - $145M/$390M

6) Frozen 2 - $85M(3-day)/$375M

7) It 2 - $140M/$350M

8) Toy Story 4 - $105M/$340M

9) Spider-Man: Homecoming 2 - $125M/$310M

10) Captain Marvel - $95M/$300M

11) Bond 25 - $95M/$265M

12) The Secret Life of Pets 2 - $75M/$255M

13) Shazam! - $90M/$250M

14) Dumbo - $75M/$245M

15) Wicked - $55M/$230M

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1 minute ago, cookie said:

I think y'all vastly overestimate Gambit. Who's still asking for a Gambit movie?

 

And don't go "but Verbinski!". His last two movies were critically savaged and bombed.

 

Massive bombage is just part of the Verbinski charm.

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  1. Star Wars: Episode IX - 650m
  2. The Lion King - 480m
  3. Wonder Woman 2 - 450-480m
  4. Avengers: Infinity War Part 2 - 440-450m
  5. Frozen 2 - 420m
  6. Aladdin - 412m
  7. Spider-Man: Homecoming 2 - 360m
  8. It: Chapter 2 - 350m
  9. Toy Story 4 - 350m
  10. Suicide Squad 2 - 350m
  11. Captain Marvel - 330m
  12. The Secret Life of Pets 2 - 320m
  13. Shazam - 320m
  14. Wicked - 300m
  15. Godzilla 2 - 300m
  16. The LEGO Movie 2 - 250m
  17. Fast and Furious Spin-Off - 230m
  18. Gambit - 190m
  19. Men in Black - 190
  20. New X-Men - 180m
  21. How to Train Your Dragon 3 - 170m
  22. Cowboy Ninja Viking - 140m
  23. Untitled Jordan Peele Project - 140m
  24. Spies in Disguise - 140m
  25. Nicole - 140m
  26. Dumbo - 115m
  27. The SpongeBob Movie - 115m
  28. Glass - 115m
  29. Top Gun - 110m
  30. Isn't It Romantic - 110m
  31. Flarsky - 110m
  32. Amusement Park - 110m
  33. Everest - 105m
Edited by Lothar
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