The Panda Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 (edited) Because predicting the box office is a stress reliever for me, and it's a very stressful period of the year, I decided I'd throw some guesses at unfinished movies that don't have any trailers, any form of data to get a decent idea of tracking, and no guarantee at even making the date. Feel free to also put your premature predictions in this thread, or laugh at my ridiculous predicts (and their reasonings) January Ad Astra 20m 55m DOM 140m WW A science fiction epic thriller with a star studded cast in January? I'd say this has potential, especially since James Gray is an excellent up and coming filmmaker, but he's also very dry and not appealing to those outside the arthouse crowd (just watch The Lost City of Z or The Immigrant, and you'll understand why his understated work wouldn't play well with the general audience). Glass 35m OW 115m DOM 285m WW Assuming Shyamalan is able to keep up his streak, and not fall back into his Last Airbender days, I see no reason this can't near repeat what Split was able to do this year. Spies in Disguise 55m OW 170m DOM 480m WW Tom Holland and Will Smith in a major studio animated film? The concept sounds like it'll play well to the family demographic, no matter the quality, so I expect a Boss Baby like run from it. Playmobil Prediction: Won't actually get made. February Flarsky 35m 110m DOM 270m WW Comedies are always hard to predict, but this has both Seth Rogen and Charlize Theron, in a comedy about journalism, politics and affairs. Assuming the drama in Washington doesn't die down in two years (likely won't), satire based off of it should play well. The LEGO Movie 2 50m OW 165m DOM 300m WW This should continue the diminishing returns from LEGO Batman, there's less goodwill and novelty to the franchise now. Silver and Black 30m OW 85m DOM 165m WW Assuming this gets made, it's a random D-List Spider-Man spin-off from Sony, that is opening in a crowded market. I think it ultimately underperforms and goes unnoticed. Gambit 85m OW 190m DOM 520m WW Gore Verbinski is an off-on kind of filmmaker, but I can see this continuing Fox's streak of strong solo X-Men outings by making something creative and edgy from it. That's assuming Verbinski is able to turn this into something that isn't conventional. Isn't It Romantic 30m OW 110m DOM 240m WW A Valentine's Day comedy starring Fat Amy from Pitch Perfect, it could go either way depending on the quality, but I think audiences will bite, even if it's frontloaded for Valentine's Day. The only problem is Flarsky opening the week before, but that's a different kind of comedy. March How to Train Your Dragon 3 45m OW 170m DOM 650m WW I think Universal will be able to market this better than Fox, however I also expect it to follow the Kung Fu Panda 3 trend and flatline off of the sequels gross. I do think less competition will help its decrease be by a little less, however. Captain Marvel 105m OW 280m DOM 690m WW Maybe Marvel's hotstreak will continue into 2019, maybe audiences will finally be done with superheroes, but I do think another female superhero story could play really well. I also see no reason to bet against a nice hit from the MCU at this point. Amusement Park 34m OW 110m DOM 400m WW Animation does well during the Spring, and there isn't a major blockbuster animated release, so I think this should play well even with Httyd3 a few weeks before. Untitled Jordan Peele Project 38m OW 140m DOM 350m WW Will lightning strike twice for Peele? I'm not sure, but after Get Out I wouldn't bet against whatever he makes being able to tap into what audiences want to see. Godzilla 2 57m OW 150m DOM 700m WW I think it'll have been long enough since Godzilla (2014) for audiences to be willing to give this another go, especially if they go about the marketing campaign in a correctionary manner, similar to how Kong was marketed. I still don't expect it to pull the same kind of opening weekend as the first though. Dumbo (2019) 35m OW 115m DOM 350m WW I see this playing out more like a Pete's Dragon than a Beauty and the Beast. Dumbo is a well known property, but not one that's particularly beloved or iconic in anyway. There won't be any way to play the Nostalgia card or play the Wicked card. April Shazam! (Untitled DC Film) 85m OW 235m DOM 640m WW No, this isn't guaranteed to be Shazam, so that's part of my prediction, but it's most likely that this is Shazam. I could see this breaking out a little bit more than 235m, but Shazam isn't the most popular DC character, so I think it'll be a little bit of an uphill battle (especially since this will be the 4th comic book movie of the year already, and it's sandwiched between two MCU movies) May Avengers: Infinity War Part 2 180m OW 385m DOM 1.3b WW This will definitely depend on how Part 1 does, but I do think this will either stay flat from Part 1 or slightly decrease, just due to the nature of how these MCU cross-over films work. Each crossover film slightly shrinks the potential audience, just because there's an evergrowing barrier of entry in what films you need to watch just to even have a clue about what's happening. 23 Men in Black 70m OW 210m DOM 450m WW Assuming this is actually a Men in Black/21 Jump Street crossover, I expect it to do well due to the novelty factor of it all (and because I think the concept could actually be pretty funny and GA appealing) Aladdin 145m OW 406m DOM 920m WW The only problematic part of this release is just how many Disney remakes are coming out this year, it'll have to share the summer with The Lion King (plus Secret Life of Pets 2 and Toy Story 4), which I think will stop it from being able to pull Beauty and the Beast numbers. However, I still think it'll be a resounding success. Minecraft 28m OW 85m DOM 200m WW I would say this could do Angry Birds numbers, but it's opening against Aladdin, it won't even have a chance to get off the ground. June Charlie's Angels 17m OW 55m DOM 150m WW Another Baywatch waiting to happen, this TV to Movie comedy adaptions don't ever seem to do well. The Secret Life of Pets 2 85m OW 255m DOM 750m WW There's a lot of family competition, so I think this inevitably declines from the first (which rode off of novelty factor and facing no competition after its release). This one is sandwiched between mega family movies, so a larger than normal sequel decline is probably coming. Untitled DC Film I think this is likely Suicide Squad 2, and will probably move to August. New X-Men 50m OW 125m DOM 500m WW X-Men seems to have a consistent audience, and I assuming this will be another X-Men movie. I think this one will reach a new low for the franchise though given it'll be surrounded by competition. Toy Story 4 95m OW 300m DOM 850m WW I think this will underperform expectations. Toy Story 3 was a culmination of the series for many fans, and so I see interest in this one being lower, while still being a solid success for Pixar. There's also only so much money the family demographic can spend, and this Summer is packed with family competition (from within house as well). Still, it's hard seeing a Toy Story film do sub-par numbers, even if this one wasn't really asked for. Cowboy Ninja Viking 35m OW 140m DOM 350m WW Chris Pratt has a decent amount of starpower, and I think a niche offering like this could play well in a Summer that doesn't have much to offer people who aren't Disney fanatics. Transformers 7 I predict this doesn't get made after The Last Flop. July Spider-Man: Homecoming 2 125m OW 318.8m DOM 800m WW I can see a slight increase in OW, while it ultimately falls a tad domestically, compared to the first one. Marvel movies seem to perform fairly consistently, with a slight touch of diminishing returns, so I expect this movie to follow suit (assuming the quality isn't poor). Top Gun 45m OW 110m DOM 400m WW Will this appeal to Nostalgia, or will it be another Resurgence? It'll be hard to tell, but it has Cruise as the helm, the only issue is how much competition this is surrounded by that I think will ultimately dampen its prospects. The Lion King 215m OW 666m DOM 1.75b WW Beauty and the Beast was massive, so in the middle of the July, The Lion King should be able to pull off true zeitgeist numbers on the level of Jurassic World or The Avengers. The OW record could potentially be in play depending on how well this marketed, given its Summer release date. It should also have strong legs due to the deep summer weekdays and being the last Family film to be released. I'd expect Disney's full marketing effort to go to this one. Fast and Furious Spin-Off 55m OW 130m DOM 600m WW It'll be a Spin-Off, so given how those tend to perform I expect a hefty decline from F8. However, as long as The Rock is in it, it'll still have a solid enough audience to be a worldwide hit. August The SpongeBob Movie 40m OW 115m DOM 350m WW SpongeBob has a fanbase, but I think the desire for this movie will have been saturated a tad by this point. I still expect the lack of August competition will let it pull decent numbers though. Suicide Squad 2 (Untitled WB Event Film) 95m OW 228m DOM 700m WW The first one was liked more than people give it credit for, but I still expect a solid decrease from the first film, as I don't see the hype from the first being recreated. September It: Chapter 2 135m OW 330.5m DOM 760m WW It was a massive success, and I think this can build on the first's OW, while being a bit more frontloaded (leading to flatlined domestic total). Plus, this has the benefit of being a sequel planned from the beginning, so the people who saw IT this year will be invested in seeing how the story ends. The Angry Birds Movie 2 26m OW 85m DOM 250m WW September animations have been inconsistent in their performances, especially movies that didn't have much appeal to begin with (like this one). I fully expect a decrease from the first Angry Birds Movie, plus another animation opens the next week, Everest (2019) 34m OW 105m DOM 350m WW DreamWorks has definitely had a resurgence, so I could see this continuing their streak of strong original hits, however this one might lack the blatant child appeal that helped Boss Baby, Trolls and Home to breakout. November Wonder Woman 2 145m OW 400m DOM 950m WW Wonder Woman was a breakout sensation, and so a substantial OW increase, yet being much more frontloaded, seems like a decent bet for me. Even then, I still expect relatively strong comic book legs for this one due to the demographics it appeals to. Nicole 40m OW 175m DOM 385m WW It's been a while since there was a solid family Christmas hit, and this has the right elements to possibly be one (similar to something like Elf). It could definitely be a countermarket to the other releases around it, while also merging the family and female demographics with Kendrick in the lead role. Frozen 2 125m OW 456m DOM 1.4b WW I don't expect Frozen 2 to mimic the first's leggy run, nor explode to a ridiculous OW number, but I do see it having a pretty substantial increase from the first, if only due to a much larger OW and having the opportunity to avoid any competition until Star Wars comes out (and it'll be a countermarket option to that). December Masters of the Universe (2019) 20m OW 60m DOM 180m WW He-Man definitely isn't popular like it used to be, and while it has its fanbase, it's not an overly large market. It's also opening right before the climax of the new Star Wars trilogy, so I'd keep reserved expectations for it. Star Wars: Episode IX 250m OW 880m DOM 2.2b WW It'll be hard to know how this performs without seeing how the Last Jedi does this year, but I expect it to fall inbetween The Force Awakens and the Last Jedi, given that it'll be a conclusion to what is turning out to be a great set of Star Wars films from Disney. Wicked 65m OW 335m DOM 820m WW I'm mixed on how well this will open against Star Wars, but Wicked has a massive fanbase and despite a more mixed critical reception, has really broken out with the general audience. We've seen GA members become more receptive to musicals lately, and I think Wicked could be one to really breakthrough. Star Wars: Episode IX - 880m The Lion King - 666m Frozen 2 - 456m Aladdin - 406m Wonder Woman 2 - 400m Avengers: Infinity War Part 2 - 385m Wicked - 335m It: Chapter 2 - 330.5m Spider-Man: Homecoming 2 - 318.8m Toy Story 4 - 300m Captain Marvel - 280m The Secret Life of Pets 2 - 255m Shazam - 235m Suicide Squad 2 - 228m 23 Men in Black - 210m Gambit - 190m Nicole - 175m Spies in Disguise - 170m How to Train Your Dragon 3 - 170m The LEGO Movie 2 - 165m Godzilla 2 - 150m Cowboy Ninja Viking - 140m Untitled Jordan Peele Project - 140m Fast and Furious Spin-Off - 130m New X-Men - 125m Dumbo - 115m The SpongeBob Movie - 115m Glass - 115m Top Gun - 110m Isn't It Romantic - 110m Flarsky - 110m Amusement Park - 110m Everest - 105m Edited November 26, 2017 by The Panda 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 Glass's OW is going to increase from Splt methinks 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonwo Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 Bond 25 will probably do $60-65m/170-180m with $500-600m OS although I think they should move it to November 22nd. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YM! Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 39 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said: Glass's OW is going to increase from Splt methinks I’d argue Glass can go over $200M domestic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YM! Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 (edited) 2019 Box Office Predictions: 1.) IX $250M/$800M 2.) Lion King $265M/$700M 3.) IW2 $225M/$465M 4.) WW2 $160M/$425M 5.) Frozen 2 $150M (5 Day)/$415M 6.) Aladdin $145M (4 Day)/$400M 7.) Suicide Squad 2: $155M/$355M 8.) IT Chapter 2 $140M/$350M 9.) Toy Story 4 $90M/$335M 10.) Shazam $120M/$330M 11.) Homecoming 2 $120M/$310M 12.) Wicked $75M/$300M 13.) Pets 2 $90M/$285M 14.) Captain Marvel $95M/$270M 15.) X Force? $120M/$265M 16.) Godzilla 2 $90M/$230M 17.) Gambit $80M/$225M 18.) Dumbo $75M/$215M 19.) Glass $65M/$200M 20.) Lego 2 $60M/$200M 21.) Nicole $50M/$180M 22.) Spies In Disguise $50M/$175M 23.) Dragon 3 $50M/$160M 24.) Peele Project $35M/$150M 25.) Hobbs and Shaw Forever $65M/$150M 26.) Everest $35M/$120M 27.) Isn’t It Romantic $50M (4 Day)/$115M 28.) Spongebob $30M/$105M 29.) Flarsky $30M/$100M 30.) CNV $30M/$100M Edited November 14, 2017 by YourMother 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAM! Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 I think if the people behind AD Astra know what they are doing, they will open wide on that date, but give the film an Oscar qualifying limited release on, like, the last weekend of December. With James Gray, that'll be the area of its success. I'm worried for How To Train Your Dragon 3, but only to an extent; this series is undoubtedly popular with the millennial fanbases, and the series as a whole has a healthy stigma of quality. But the last one did disappoint... But hopefully this is the success Dreamworks needs to keep the ball rolling. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rebeccas Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 1 hour ago, Jonwo said: Bond 25 will probably do $60-65m/170-180m with $500-600m OS although I think they should move it to November 22nd. Depends on how badly Annapurna fucks up the release. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cannastop Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 2 hours ago, The Pumpkin Spice Panda said: The Lion King 215m OW 666m DOM 1.75b WW Beauty and the Beast was massive, so in the middle of the July, The Lion King should be able to pull off true zeitgeist numbers on the level of Jurassic World or The Avengers. The OW record could potentially be in play depending on how well this marketed, given its Summer release date. It should also have strong legs due to the deep summer weekdays and being the last Family film to be released. I'd expect Disney's full marketing effort to go to this one. The Lion King remake is the Antichrist? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted November 14, 2017 Author Share Posted November 14, 2017 16 minutes ago, cannastop said: The Lion King remake is the Antichrist? I'm sure @Squadron Leader Tele would agree 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PNF2187 Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 Top 15 2019 Predictions: 1) Star Wars 9 - $240M/$820M 2) The Lion King - $225M/$650M 3) Avengers 4 - $185M/$440M 4) Aladdin -$146M/$415M 5) Wonder Woman 2 - $145M/$390M 6) Frozen 2 - $85M(3-day)/$375M 7) It 2 - $140M/$350M 8) Toy Story 4 - $105M/$340M 9) Spider-Man: Homecoming 2 - $125M/$310M 10) Captain Marvel - $95M/$300M 11) Bond 25 - $95M/$265M 12) The Secret Life of Pets 2 - $75M/$255M 13) Shazam! - $90M/$250M 14) Dumbo - $75M/$245M 15) Wicked - $55M/$230M 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cookie Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 I think y'all vastly overestimate Gambit. Who's still asking for a Gambit movie? And don't go "but Verbinski!". His last two movies were critically savaged and bombed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aabattery Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 1 minute ago, cookie said: I think y'all vastly overestimate Gambit. Who's still asking for a Gambit movie? And don't go "but Verbinski!". His last two movies were critically savaged and bombed. Massive bombage is just part of the Verbinski charm. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YM! Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 8 hours ago, cannastop said: The Lion King remake is the Antichrist? @That One Guy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That One Girl Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 5 hours ago, cookie said: I think y'all vastly overestimate Gambit. Who's still asking for a Gambit movie? And don't go "but Verbinski!". His last two movies were critically savaged and bombed. ... ... ... but Verbinski Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted November 15, 2017 Author Share Posted November 15, 2017 On 11/14/2017 at 6:02 AM, That One Guy said: ... ... ... but Verbinski ^^ This Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 This will be the year Disney finally buys the world. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lothar Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 (edited) Star Wars: Episode IX - 650m The Lion King - 480m Wonder Woman 2 - 450-480m Avengers: Infinity War Part 2 - 440-450m Frozen 2 - 420m Aladdin - 412m Spider-Man: Homecoming 2 - 360m It: Chapter 2 - 350m Toy Story 4 - 350m Suicide Squad 2 - 350m Captain Marvel - 330m The Secret Life of Pets 2 - 320m Shazam - 320m Wicked - 300m Godzilla 2 - 300m The LEGO Movie 2 - 250m Fast and Furious Spin-Off - 230m Gambit - 190m Men in Black - 190 New X-Men - 180m How to Train Your Dragon 3 - 170m Cowboy Ninja Viking - 140m Untitled Jordan Peele Project - 140m Spies in Disguise - 140m Nicole - 140m Dumbo - 115m The SpongeBob Movie - 115m Glass - 115m Top Gun - 110m Isn't It Romantic - 110m Flarsky - 110m Amusement Park - 110m Everest - 105m Edited November 15, 2017 by Lothar 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eric Duncan Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 Great stuff. I don't really like predicting movies that are more than two years away, so I don't have anything to read, but I enjoyed your reasonings. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lordmandeep Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 Do people really think SW9 is going to decline from SW8? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PNF2187 Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 3 hours ago, Lordmandeep said: Do people really think SW9 is going to decline from SW8? I'm thinking $780-800M for SW8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
