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The Avengers OS Thread (Crosses 800M!)

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Comparing TF2 -> TF3 and IM2 -> Avengers

I'm excluding China for a moment here since that always screws up comparisons. :)

- TF2 made 370M in 2009. TF3 made 595M with 2 years gap and 3D.

- Avengers has 3D and 2 year gap from IM2 as well.

- IM2 made 286M. If Avengers has the same jump, it will make 460M.

Why this is the worst case scenario

- Avengers is not IM3 but bigger than that.

- IM2 had much better WOM than TF2. Avengers looks to have better WOM than TF3 as well.

- Domestically, TF3 decreased from TF2 by a significant amount, while Avengers should in all likelihood increase by a healthy sum. So it follows that the overseas change should be better.

- TF3 had to compete with DH2. Avengers basically has open field.

How much China should make?

- If it has the same increase from IM2 as TF2->TF3, it should make 70-75M.

- Performance of other sequels also suggest that 60M should be the worst case scenario.

- 'Avengers is not IM3' is valid here as well.

So worst case scenario = 460M + 60M = 520M.

I am really thinking 600M may be possible here.

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Comparing TF2 -> TF3 and IM2 -> Avengers

I'm excluding China for a moment here since that always screws up comparisons. :)

- TF2 made 370M in 2009. TF3 made 595M with 2 years gap and 3D.

- Avengers has 3D and 2 year gap from IM2 as well.

- IM2 made 286M. If Avengers has the same jump, it will make 460M.

Why this is the worst case scenario

- Avengers is not IM3 but bigger than that.

- IM2 had much better WOM than TF2. Avengers looks to have better WOM than TF3 as well.

- Domestically, TF3 decreased from TF2 by a significant amount, while Avengers should in all likelihood increase by a healthy sum. So it follows that the overseas change should be better.

- TF3 had to compete with DH2. Avengers basically has open field.

How much China should make?

- If it has the same increase from IM2 as TF2->TF3, it should make 70-75M.

- Performance of other sequels also suggest that 60M should be the worst case scenario.

- 'Avengers is not IM3' is valid here as well.

So worst case scenario = 460M + 60M = 520M.

I am really thinking 600M may be possible here.

great analysis.
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Comparing TF2 -> TF3 and IM2 -> Avengers

I'm excluding China for a moment here since that always screws up comparisons. :)

- TF2 made 370M in 2009. TF3 made 595M with 2 years gap and 3D.

- Avengers has 3D and 2 year gap from IM2 as well.

- IM2 made 286M. If Avengers has the same jump, it will make 460M.

Why this is the worst case scenario

- Avengers is not IM3 but bigger than that.

- IM2 had much better WOM than TF2. Avengers looks to have better WOM than TF3 as well.

- Domestically, TF3 decreased from TF2 by a significant amount, while Avengers should in all likelihood increase by a healthy sum. So it follows that the overseas change should be better.

- TF3 had to compete with DH2. Avengers basically has open field.

How much China should make?

- If it has the same increase from IM2 as TF2->TF3, it should make 70-75M.

- Performance of other sequels also suggest that 60M should be the worst case scenario.

- 'Avengers is not IM3' is valid here as well.

So worst case scenario = 460M + 60M = 520M.

I am really thinking 600M may be possible here.

I like your math :P :P

But i doubt yout worst case though -_-

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Fake, How big will it be in India? Some of my friends in Delhi and Jalandhar (Punjab) are going on the 27th to see it.

10M should be possible.It is opening against 'Tezz' so that might hurt it a bit. If it wasn't opening against a major film, 10M would have been locked.
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I should have said I know why they changed the title. The vast bulk of their target audience have probably never seen the TV show nor that flop of a movie from 14 years ago. I just looked at some of the reviews for the 1998 remake of the TV show. I'd forgotten how bad that movie was. From the wiki article-Further adding to the confusion, after test screenings, the 115-minute film was cut to 87 minutes, sacrificing much coherence and continuity in the process. The New York Times's Janet Maslin noted "At a pared-down, barely rational 90 minutes, "The Avengers" is short but not short enough."[3]

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