5-Day Weekend Thread | Saturday #s (Asgard p.109) - Coco 17.7, Justice League 15.7, Wonder 8.3, Thor: Ragnarok 6.4, Daddy's Home 2 5.3

[That One Girl]

1 minute ago, B D Joe said:

Good Dinosaur was one of the most boring movies I've seen in a theater.

 

Then you haven't seen that many movies in theaters.

[MovieMan89]

4 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

?

 

FB dropped 44.5% on Thanksgiving Sunday

Correct. That gives you 9.2 if the Saturday is 16.6. You gave it a mere 29.5% drop with your 11.7 number. Knew something was off in your calcs when you gave it a higher second weekend gross than FB in spite of the fact that it has a lower first Wednesday gross. 

Edited November 22, 2017 by MovieMan89

[ZeeSoh]

Just now, That One Guy said:

 

?

 

FB dropped 44.5% on Thanksgiving Sunday

Yes it did and the same fall would give JL a 9.2m Sunday as opposed to the 11.7m which you calculated

[DAJK]

Damn, nothing on MWIC? Damn Bleeker St... damn

[Webslinger]

Just now, Jake Gittes said:

A Descendants kind of expansion is likely I think. 

That's exactly the precedent I was thinking of. I'm still impressed that it ended up making over $80 million; even with Clooney and the Oscar hype, it's still a dramedy about death and infidelity.

[That One Girl]

Just now, MovieMan89 said:

Correct. That gives you 9.2 if the Saturday is 16.6. 

 

Ah yes.  My bad.

 

That puts JL at 63.07M 5-day, and 43.41M for the weekend (-53.7%)

[WrathOfHan]

1 minute ago, Webslinger said:

Unless there's some announcement saying otherwise that I just happen to have missed, I'd bet that Fox will hold Three Billboards back from a 2,000-theater release until Oscar nominations are announced in January.

The latest plan was 400-450 this weekend and 750-1,000 next weekend, but that obviously changed as it got 590 theaters this week. I'm expecting 1,200 minimum next weekend and could see them going all out with 2k next weekend or the 8th.

Roman Israel could get a couple hundred theaters, but the damage is done.
Lady Bird is a bit trickier to predict. It should hit 1k next weekend, but this isn't overly appealing to rural audiences similar to The Big Sick. It could get 1,500-2,000 based on how barren the market is. This is what my 12plex has:

 

JL x3

Coco x2

DH2 x2

Wonder

The Star
OE

Thor

Bad Moms

 

Daddy's Home sure as shit doesn't need two screens anymore, and three screens for JL is overkill. Midsize theaters have room to accommodate. 

[That One Girl]

3 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Correct. That gives you 9.2 if the Saturday is 16.6. You gave it a mere 29.5% drop with your 11.7 number. Knew something was off in your calcs when you gave it a higher second weekend gross than FB in spite of the fact that it has a lower first Wednesday gross. 

 

I think I typed out the percentage drop incorrectly, whoops  

[MovieMan89]

Just now, That One Guy said:

 

I think I typed out the percentage drop incorrectly, whoops  

I thought you were just casually tryin to add some m's to JL w/o anyone noticing ala a WB estimate for it. 

 

[meriodejaneiro]

I don't know if it's been told before but ... what are Thor 3 tuesday numbers? 

[Rumpot]

AMC Empire 8pm Spanish showing of Coco already has 91 seats filled - will likely sell out completely.  My Spanish is barely passable, but I would kinda love to be in that theater and see the reactions, etc 

[MovieMan89]

Could get 7 movies over 10m for the weekend which would be really nice to see. I don't even think that's happened one weekend this year. 

[Krissykins]

I actually forgot how much of an outright flop The Good Dinosaur was for Disney/Pixar. 

[mredman]

32 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Very good start for Coco.

LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL JUSTICE LEAGUE   I knew this would've been a victim of Discount Tuesday, but I didn't expect a decrease. Jesus.

Coco hurt Wonder and DH2 a little but, but that's still good for both.

Very good for Thor/OE

That's INSANE for Three Billboards  Good for Lady Bird too; hopefully both can get 2k theaters in early December

Whatever for Roman Israel.

There you go with an immature mocking again, how many posts has it now been 100 ? oh and you realize Deadline is lowballing again right. they did it only for JL on monday too with 6-7 million.

[Joel M]

4 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Could get 7 movies over 10m for the weekend which would be really nice to see. I don't even think that's happened one weekend this year. 

Coco, JL, Wonder, Thor, MOTOE, DH2 ...what's the 7th?

[MovieMan89]

1 minute ago, Joel M said:

Coco, JL, Wonder, Thor, MOTOE, DH2 ...what's the 7th?

The Star would have to have a mild increase, which I know is unlikely but maybe not impossible. 

[Krissykins]

2 hours ago, Jayhawk said:

Looks like Coco has another level of WOM, don't want to get my hopes up too much, but I'm starting to think it beating Moana's 5-day is a possibility. Box office really looking up the past few weeks, even with JL's underperformance. There's a lot of depth right now than we've had in awhile.

Wasn’t it’s preview to OD more frontloaded than Moana’s?

[Krissykins]

Moana did $15.5m after $2.6m previews.

 

Why is Coco only doing $12m despite previews of only $300k less? 

 

Edited November 22, 2017 by Krissykins

[Webslinger]

It bears repeating that it's still just 2:15 out west. There's still plenty of time for these numbers to fluctuate.

[Rumpot]

1 minute ago, Krissykins said:

Moana did $15.5m after $2.6m previews.

 

Why is Coco only doing $12m despite previews of only $300k less? 

 

Moana first update last year was for 13.5M.  Will have to see where Coco actually lands first