MovieMan89 Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 (edited) 32 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said: Finally more info on the subscribers... "Currently, 30% of all MoviePass subscribers are concentrated in San Francisco, Los Angeles and New York with 70% scattered across the nation." It's also got info on how folks use the program - crazy the 1st month, slower the 2nd, slower the 3rd, and back to about double their normal habit from month 4th on...so, when there are big subscriber bumps, they'll likely be bigger box office buffs... http://deadline.com/2018/01/moviepass-sundance-film-festival-mitch-lower-moviepass-ventures-independent-films-1202264623/ So it basically says right there that MP movie viewing habits only tend to be significantly above the consumer's normal in that first month. Hopefully now you realize why your argument about all these subscribers who turn up multiple times to the theater every weekend doesn't hold up. Edited January 23, 2018 by MovieMan89 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoMisfits Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 (edited) 7 hours ago, MovieMan89 said: So it basically says right there that MP movie viewing habits only tend to be significantly above the consumer's normal in that first month. Hopefully now you realize why your argument about all these subscribers who turn up multiple times to the theater every weekend doesn't hold up. Except we got a 1 million bump in subscribers from December to Jan - so that month was crazy for the 1M new holders (we only had 500K til Dec 9 and 1.5M from Jan 9)...so, no, my argument for the crazy Xmas bump holds:)... Plus, they still now go DOUBLE vs their old usage, so if you assume a LOW total of 1x/month before, now they go 2x/month and you have $21M of extra BO per month even when they settle down (and add no new folks, which is completely unlikely) - that's still a buff to the "low" and "middle" revenue movies...and the overall industry... Edited January 23, 2018 by TwoMisfits Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronJimbo Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 2 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said: Except we got a 1 million bump in subscribers from December to Jan - so that month was crazy for the 1M new holders (we only had 500K til Dec 9 and 1.5M from Jan 9)...so, no, my argument for the crazy Xmas bump holds:)... Plus, they still now go DOUBLE vs their old usage, so if you assume a LOW total of 1x/month before, now they go 2x/month and you have $21M of extra BO per month even when they settle down (and add no new folks) - that's a buff to the "low" and "middle" revenue movies... Misfits I like your posts but I have to be honest I have no idea what Movie Pass is! If possible could you give me a little breakdown of what it is and why it's important. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoMisfits Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 (edited) 9 minutes ago, IronJimbo said: Misfits I like your posts but I have to be honest I have no idea what Movie Pass is! If possible could you give me a little breakdown of what it is and why it's important. Short, short version... It's an "outside the industry" created subscription service which lets any US adult subscribe and partake of unlimited movies/month. It was around prior to Aug 2017, but at that point, it decided to drop its subscription price from $50/month to $10/month and it exploded, going from 50K subscribers to 1.5M in under 5 months (projections are it will be at 3-4M subscribers by end of 2018, but that's guesswork on analysts' part). Even though it's $10/month, it works by having the customer show up at the theater at least 30 minutes prior to show (and no earlier than same day) and purchasing a ticket on its app. Once purchased from Moviepass in reserved funds, you go to the actual theater ticket office or ticket machine and purchase the actual ticket with your Moviepass card funds. Moviepass reimburses the theater at full price to the theater. So, obviously for now, with the newness of the base, the company is bleeding cash, but it has a former Netflix head in charge, so this isn't a "fly by nighter" and Wall Street is supporting the cash bleed for now. They release info only sometimes, and never in full...I mean, again, we have guesswork on what "crazy 1st month" means, but it's probably folks going 6-12 times (if you assume it slows down each month to a 2x/month habit)... So, all in all, the customer makes out with cheap viewing...the theaters make out for now with full price tickets being bought to shows at the last minute that have open seats...the company says they make out, and if they are going the "gym" scenario route, maybe they will get there...but obviously not yet... Edited January 23, 2018 by TwoMisfits 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronJimbo Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 10 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said: Short, short version... It's an "outside the industry" created subscription service which lets any US adult subscribe and partake of unlimited movies/month. It was around prior to Aug 2017, but at that point, it decided to drop its subscription price from $50/month to $10/month and it exploded, going from 50K subscribers to 1.5M in under 5 months (projections are it will be at 3-4M subscribers by end of 2018, but that's guesswork on analysts' part). Even though it's $10/month, it works by having the customer show up at the theater at least 30 minutes prior to show (and no earlier than same day) and purchasing a ticket on its app. Once purchased from Moviepass in reserved funds, you go to the actual theater ticket office or ticket machine and purchase the actual ticket with your Moviepass card funds. Moviepass reimburses the theater at full price to the theater. So, obviously for now, with the newness of the base, the company is bleeding cash, but it has a former Netflix head in charge, so this isn't a "fly by nighter" and Wall Street is supporting the cash bleed for now. They release info only sometimes, and never in full...I mean, again, we have guesswork on what "crazy 1st month" means, but it's probably folks going 6-12 times (if you assume it slows down each month to a 2x/month habit)... So, all in all, the customer makes out with cheap viewing...the theaters make out for now with full price tickets being bought to shows at the last minute that have open seats...the company says they make out, and if they are going the "gym" scenario route, maybe they will get there...but obviously not yet... That's pretty cool. I know gyms rely on a large chunk of clients not showing up, otherwise there would be no room. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barnack Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 2 hours ago, TwoMisfits said: Plus, they still now go DOUBLE vs their old usage, so if you assume a LOW total of 1x/month before, now they go 2x/month and you have $21M of extra BO per month That is a 21$ average ticket if you go from 1x to 2x a month for 1 million user no ? probably meant 10.50M extra BO a month. Not nothing but the average month was getting close to 1 billion, so it is not far from a 1.2% or so boost (that will be a bit overweight over a certain type of movie) but it will be hard to see industry wide. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandomCat Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 (edited) On 1/20/2018 at 1:43 PM, Barnack said: Not at your deal price point obviously, moviepass existed for a while now, but it was $50 a month, at that price it was not devaluating anything, someone paying $50 a month for all you can see in theater will not be shock at a 4.99$ price for an HD rental or $14.50 Bluray or $17.50 a month HBO or Netflix. Someone growing up paying $10 a month for all you can see movies in theater (or the $8 a month for it + fandor streaming service type of deal), could find obscene paying almost half of that for a rental or more than that for a streaming service. To me, this doesn't scan right. I may be an odd one out about this, but my feelings towards rental and purchase prices are more tied to how much it costs for a streaming service, rather than the cost of seeing it in theaters. This is obviously just my personal experience, so take it with whatever grain of salt. But I don't think letting people see more movies, legally, is a bad thing. Edited January 23, 2018 by RandomYojimbo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoMisfits Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 (edited) 1 hour ago, Barnack said: That is a 21$ average ticket if you go from 1x to 2x a month for 1 million user no ? probably meant 10.50M extra BO a month. Not nothing but the average month was getting close to 1 billion, so it is not far from a 1.2% or so boost (that will be a bit overweight over a certain type of movie) but it will be hard to see industry wide. Since it's 30% NY/LA, we now know tickets are both weighted to more expensive showings in more expensive locations...so $14/ticket is probably right for now... For 1.5M folks, the normal "settled in" bump should be $21M/month. For mid-December to mid-January, 1M new 1st month subscribers going to 6 extra movies (the low end of what the guy talked about for "crazy" 1st month viewing) would bump the 4 week period by $126M...plus the 1/movie month bump up for the "old" 500K subscribers of $7M...so over a 4 week period (mid-Dec to mid-Jan), we probably saw an additional $133M to the market - that's kinda huge, especially for the Jan side...if you assume the 2 months (Dec/Jan) were $2B combined in Dec 2016/Jan 2017...so, $1B/month average, MP users would have brought 13% of the market for this stretch...and they wouldn't have given their dollars equally over all movies, but would probably have buffed some more and some less...and I think we see that in some movies (fun, Oscar related, adult-skewing) and not others (kid-focused, unrewatchable, not well received by audiences)... Edited January 23, 2018 by TwoMisfits 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barnack Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 2 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said: Since it's 30% NY/LA, we now know tickets are both waited to more expensive showings in more expensive locations...so $14/ticket is probably right for now... For 1.5M folks, the normal "settled in" bump should be $21M/month. Combined with less Tuesday rebate maybe, but it is also no 3D/special screen right ? Making the average MP ticket maybe a bit under the average ticket price by regions. 4 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said: additional $133M to the market - that's kinda huge, It would be yes, having a Canada/US split for more movie in recent year and this year would probably show a visible difference. It is more for say a year like membership, if growth settle down (because the craze is first months like gym membership), it it end up being a group of 2.5M going to the movie 30 times a year instead of 15 in average for around 270m at the box office in bonus, on a 11b market. A nice 2.5% boost, maybe bigger than the inflation factor (will probably be around 2.2% in 2018). If it end up snatching most regular movie goer and has 18m member doing that, that is a game changer (around 2B) 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barnack Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 (edited) 3 hours ago, RandomYojimbo said: To me, this doesn't scan right. I may be an odd one out about this, but my feelings towards rental and purchase prices are more tied to how much it costs for a streaming service, rather than the cost of seeing it in theaters. This is obviously just my personal experience, so take it with whatever grain of salt. You are right about that I think, the more similar the experience the more it influence the price. And it would probably go like this is monthly theater is $10 why Netflix or HBO want $17, they have to keep the price low, those low price make the price of a bluray or rental look too high, how a single movie is more than a complete month of all I can see Netflix (I am pretty confident the customer will not amortize how much of is Internet monthly bill is use on Netflix in that price, making look much cheaper than it really is, unless ISB start charging Netflix for traffic) 3 hours ago, RandomYojimbo said: But I don't think letting people see more movies, legally, is a bad thing. But it obviously depend of the price point no ? The studios could do like the music industry and put almost new movie for free on youtube and try to get a bit of YT ads money, would it not be a bad thing ? The price people are ready to pay for the latest movie is quite artificial and that fully made up rarity by the current system is in major part responsible for that. (thing about how fickle it is to be ready to pay more for a movie for the only very fact that it is new, even if a 2007 movie didn't do perish or lost any value) Edited January 23, 2018 by Barnack 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Claire of Themyscira Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 You mad, huh? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rumpot Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 HMNY/moviepass registering to sell up to $400million in shares and warrants. http://xml.10kwizard.com/filing_raw.php?repo=tenk&ipage=12000690&ds=2 400m would be multiples of what the stock market values the company at currently. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AniNate Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 On 1/23/2018 at 12:17 AM, TwoMisfits said: Finally more info on the subscribers... "Currently, 30% of all MoviePass subscribers are concentrated in San Francisco, Los Angeles and New York with 70% scattered across the nation." It's also got info on how folks use the program - crazy the 1st month, slower the 2nd, slower the 3rd, and back to about double their normal habit from month 4th on...so, when there are big subscriber bumps, they'll likely be bigger box office buffs... http://deadline.com/2018/01/moviepass-sundance-film-festival-mitch-lower-moviepass-ventures-independent-films-1202264623/ I think those trends are tied more to the movies coming out than intrinsic subscriber behavior. Right now is when all the Oscar bait is coming out so naturally everyone will be going to the movies more. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rumpot Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 Moviepass removing/blocking some theaters with high priced tickets - focus of article on a few AMCs including Empire being removed. http://deadline.com/2018/01/moviepass-lack-of-amc-theatres-coverage-1202269412/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AniNate Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 MoviePass no longer working at big market AMCs http://deadline.com/2018/01/moviepass-lack-of-amc-theatres-coverage-1202269412/ Yeah, they were probably bleeding money from those theaters. Long as it still works at the Regal Independence and Nightlight theater, though, I'm not complaining Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morieris Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 So the theaters aren't necessarily better, they're just in traffic-heavy or in the heart of metropolises? It wouldn't affect my podunk AMC - for now. I feel bad for the people who were probably saving 17$ a ticket in those theaters. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Reynolds Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 (edited) Beginning of the end RIP MOVIEPASS Edited January 25, 2018 by Ryan Reynolds 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AniNate Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 (edited) I think it would be in MoviePass' better interests to maintain the wide scope of the app's use. If this is coming from their end then it's only a matter of time before they pull the other NY/LA theaters costing them a ton of money too. I could see them maybe switching to a discount model rather than raising the subscription price where users link their own accounts to the app to pay off the difference and still use the Pass to get in. That way there could still be money saved while keeping MoviePass solvent. Edited January 25, 2018 by tribefan695 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
antovolk Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 Has anyone here brought up the systems that UK chains have? Because...it's surprising no US chain introduced these properly, and now this whole MoviePass mess will just discourage them as it'll be tough to match their price point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rumpot Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 My AMC - Tyson's Mclean was amongst the Moviepass casualties. Will be cancelling. This is a major change to start restricting users from the most popular theaters... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
