Tuesday Numbers (Dec 26): TLJ 27.7, Jumanji: 17.1, PP3 7.4, TGS 5.1 (actuals/estimates)

[JonathanLB]

It’s “too late” for TLJ to hit 3x multiple?! Hahaha yeah if your math fucking sucks. It has plenty of chance for that still, actually.

[Mojoguy]

TLJ isn't going to be developing "magic" legs. Mixed WOM at best right now.

[Porthos]

8 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

Jan. 2018 doesn't look to have anything unless The Post is huge, but that is trending more towards Bridge of Spies than it is Lincoln when it comes to tracking.  Paddington 2 might get over $100m, but they have a lot of work to do.  Proud Mary could shock I guess, but overall the slate is much more desolate.  The Last Jedi will at a minimum have more opportunity to put up some better grosses than it would have the last 2 years.  

The problem with this is, I heard the exact same song and dance in Dec 15 and Dec 16 about how barren January looked in their respective upcoming years.

 

People underestimated the slates that were coming in both cases.

 

Now past performance and future returns and all that.  But, well, twice bitten and all that in return.

 

Maybe you're right.  But I'll be slightly pessimistic for once and believe the weak January when I see it.

[Porthos]

As for today, I'm expecting a pretty harsh drop.

 

Rogue One's Dec 27th fell nearly 30 percent with at least a partial Discount Tuesday to help buffet it.

Rogue One's Second Wednesday fell another 20 percent on top of the Dec 27 drop.

 

Could be an ugly number if we're not ready for it.  Unless someone can give me a good reason to be more optimistic, I think anything from a 20 to 25 percent drop should be looked at as good/expected.  Maybe even a larger drop, for that matter.

 

A 25% drop still gives a 21m+ day, for what it's worth.   

Edited December 27, 2017 by Porthos

[BadAtGender]

Jumanji's going to come out of the holidays with something like $180m or so. It stands a chance of cracking the top 10 for the year. (Assuming that no awards-bait releases go absolutely bonkers.)

[Mojoguy]

Logically TLJ is going to be a bit more frontloaded than TFA because it is a sequel. Sequels tend to be.

[TheForceuser707]

Let me know when the figures presented are actual final figures.

 

And less of those daft gif responses and self congratulations please. Thanks

[aabattery]

2 minutes ago, DameronRoc said:

Jumanji's going to come out of the holidays with something like $180m or so. It stands a chance of cracking the top 10 for the year. (Assuming that no awards-bait releases go absolutely bonkers.)

 

Totally getting ahead of myself here, but I wouldn't be shocked if it got up to #8 or something. Despicable Me 3's number doesn't seem out of reach to me (domestically, anyway). If it can hold super duper well it might even pass Thor but the petty soul inside me would prefer it if that didn't happen .

[EmpireCity]

8 minutes ago, Porthos said:

The problem with this is, I heard the exact same song and dance in Dec 15 and Dec 16 about how barren January looked in their respective upcoming years.

 

People underestimated the slates that were coming in both cases.

 

Now past performance and future returns and all that.  But, well, twice bitten and all that in return.

 

Maybe you're right.  But I'll be slightly pessimistic for once and believe the weak January when I see it.

I simply don't see it for January 18.  Here are the releases.....

 

- Molly's Game (the current PTA in limited indicates zero chance of anything happening)

- The Post (the best chance to have a true break out with Spielberg and award's season

- Paddington 2 (second best chance due to Warner Bros. and reviews)

- 12 Strong (dead in the water)

- Proud Mary (third best chance for a break out, but that date has too many wide releases)

- The Commuter (Lol)

- Den of Thieves (Lol)

- Maze Runner: The Death Cure (might hit around $80m if reviews are good and people still remember these movies)

 

 

 

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, Mojoguy said:

Logically TLJ is going to be a bit more frontloaded than TFA because it is a sequel. Sequels tend to be.

While I fully admit that WOM is a factor, this is also one reason why I personally am not freaking out about the multiplier.  Disappointed?  Yeah, I'd say so. Freaking out? Nah. Not a bit.

 

I might just be the most multiplier skeptical person on this entire board, of course (and this is NOT a new development for Yours Truly, as my arguing during CA:CW showed).  So this stance isn't too surprising for me.  But TLJ being frontloaded to at least some degree absolutely should be expected.  I expected it for Rogue One and I'm fully expecting it for Solo as well.  Just part and parcel of the current movie going environment.

[DeeCee]

48 minutes ago, ReyReyBattery said:

 

Nice.

I was watching the Big Bash last night. They give out large cards with a 6 on them to wave if someone hits a 6. One guy had two of them. He put them next to each other, and here’s the twist you’ll love.  The first one was the right way up but the second one was upside down. 

 

I immediately thought. That’s @ReyReyBatterylevel of cleverness. 

[Fancyarcher]

Good for Jedi that it increased.

51 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Said it before, and I'll say it again.  The box office run of TLJ is many things, but 'boring' is not one of them. 

Regardless of the outcome it's exciting to follow. It's a real roller coaster of a box office run.

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, ReyReyBattery said:

 

Totally getting ahead of myself here, but I wouldn't be shocked if it got up to #8 or something. Despicable Me 3's number doesn't seem out of reach to me (domestically, anyway). If it can hold super duper well it might even pass Thor but the petty soul inside me would prefer it if that didn't happen .

Out of curiosity, just how badly are the twin hits of TLJ and Jumanji fucking with everyone in regards to the Winter Game?

 

Got to be lots of carnage over there from these two releases. 

[aabattery]

Just now, DeeReyEgonnnnn said:

I was watching the Big Bash last night. They give out large cards with a 6 on them to wave if someone hits a 6. One guy had two of them. He put them next to each other, and here’s the twist you’ll love.  The first one was the right way up but the second one was upside down. 

 

I immediately thought. That’s @ReyReyBatterylevel of cleverness. 

 

 

I am proud of that man.

[aabattery]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

Out of curiosity, just how badly are the twin hits of TLJ and Jumanji fucking with everyone in regards to the Winter Game?

 

Got to be lots of carnage over there from these two releases. 

 

Just had a look at what my predictions were.

 

In summary:

 

[TheForceuser707]

11 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

Logically TLJ is going to be a bit more frontloaded than TFA because it is a sequel. Sequels tend to be.

Really?

 

Then why is TLJ the only Star Wars sequel to make LESS on its OW than its predecessor?

[AndyLL]

3 minutes ago, TheForceuser707 said:

Really?

 

Then why is TLJ the only Star Wars sequel to make LESS on its OW than its predecessor?

Do not start this again.  It's been beaten to death

[Mojoguy]

Then why is TLJ the only Star Wars sequel to make LESS on its OW than its predecessor?

ESB had a bigger OW than ANH for obvious reasons, because no one knew what the hell SW was at the time.
TPM opened on a Wednesday, AOTC opened on a Thursday so no real comparisons here
No one was seriously thinking TLJ was going to have a bigger opening that TFA, I was more talking about legs here.

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, TheForceuser707 said:

Really?

 

Then why is TLJ the only Star Wars sequel to make LESS on its OW than its predecessor?

Because the 80s aren't useful for any sort of comparison.

 

Because TPM had 15 years of ticket inflation.

Because AoTC had a 4 day opening frame instead of TPM's 5 day opening frame

Because RotS was The Last Star Wars EVER

Because TFA had 13 months worth of hype AND 10 years of ticket inflation.

 

Annnnnd because TLJ had none of the above and was the third SW film in 25 months.

 

But you'll ignore all of this just like you ignored it the other half dozen times it was said to you.  But I thought a summary was in order.

[dxmatrixdt]

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Edited December 27, 2017 by Matrix4You