Tuesday Numbers (Dec 26): TLJ 27.7, Jumanji: 17.1, PP3 7.4, TGS 5.1 (actuals/estimates)

[Brainbug]

It is fascinating how high the level of quality of the horror movies that Hollywood unleashes on the first weekend of January every year really is

 

 

Such art.

Edited December 27, 2017 by Brainbug

[Blaze Heatnix]

That's a decent number for TLJ, but such "220 million opening weekend flick" should be performing much better than that. Missing a 3x multiplier would be bad ( I think it would be the first time that a movie above 200 million opening weekend would miss that multiplier ).

 

A decent number, regardless. 

[FantasticBeasts]

15 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

The real important question about TLJ.

 

Will TLJ ww gross be < or > 0.5A

Most likely <

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, Brainbug said:

It is fascinating how high the level of quality of the horror movies that Hollywood unleashes on the first weekend of January every year really is

 

 

Such art.

10th anniversary of this masterpiece coming up.

 

[JonathanLB]

1 hour ago, estebanJ said:

Looks like TLJ will not join the list of films having a $30m DOM day after passing $250m DOM. Rogue 1 did it last year.

 

At this point, TLJ probably doesn't reach $600m DOM.

Hahaha again are you joking?! This is a box office forum, math is kind of assumed here. It will easily reach $600M!

[Mrwick]

Star wars is not under performing. TFA was just massive. Everyone and their mums went to see it, even my nan who never goes to the cinema and has alzheimer's went to see it knowing full well she would forget all about it 10 mins after leaving the cinema. TLJ was never coming close to it even if it was the best star wars ever.

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, Blaze Heatnix said:

That's a decent number for TLJ, but such "220 million opening weekend flick" should be performing much better than that. Missing a 3x multiplier would be bad ( I think it would be the first time that a movie above 200 million opening weekend would miss that multiplier ).

 

A decent number, regardless. 

 

Yes, since TA1 barely had a 3.0 multiplier. But heres the thing: It would have had to happen anyway. If you adjust the all-time OW's to todays prices you have (nearly) 200M openers who missed a 3 multi by a lot:

 

7	Spider-Man 3	Sony	$196,144,000	44.9%	4,252	$46,130	$436,804,600	5/4/2007
8	Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2	WB	$190,284,800	44.4%	4,375	$43,494	$428,549,900	7/15/2011
9	Iron Man 3	BV	$185,574,100	42.6%	4,253	$43,633	$435,858,600	5/3/2013

 

I dont mean that in relation to The Last Jedi, the fate of that films multiplier rests in this and next week. But it had to happen to a 200M opener someday. Id say, with OW's getting more and more frontloaded and the rush factor rising with every year, its probably reasonable to expect future 200M openers to miss the target.

 

Infinity War i can easily see opening to 200M+. But it wont come close to a 3 multi.

 

[Blaze Heatnix]

3 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

Yes, since TA1 barely had a 3.0 multiplier. But heres the thing: It would have had to happen anyway. If you adjust the all-time OW's to todays prices you have (nearly) 200M openers who missed a 3 multi by a lot:

 

7	Spider-Man 3	Sony	$196,144,000	44.9%	4,252	$46,130	$436,804,600	5/4/2007
8	Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2	WB	$190,284,800	44.4%	4,375	$43,494	$428,549,900	7/15/2011
9	Iron Man 3	BV	$185,574,100	42.6%	4,253	$43,633	$435,858,600	5/3/2013

 

I dont mean that in relation to The Last Jedi, the fate of that films multiplier rests in this and next week. But it had to happen to a 200M opener someday. Id say, with OW's getting more and more frontloaded and the rush factor rising with every year, its probably reasonable to expect future 200M openers to miss the target.

 

Infinity War i can easily see opening to 200M+. But it wont come close to a 3 multi.

 

 

I think Infinite War will have a massive weekend, massive. Then, it'll drop hard or perform like Civil War. I think this movie will be insanely frontloaded.

[Brainbug]

Just now, Blaze Heatnix said:

 

I think Infinite War will have a massive weekend, massive. Then, it'll drop hard or perform like Civil War. I think this movie will be insanely frontloaded.

 

 

In all seriousness, i think IW will dive like HP: DH2 in weekend 2 (-70%), regardless if its well received or not. The must-see-as-early-as-possible-factor will be out of this world.

[MCKillswitch123]

13 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

It is fascinating how high the level of quality of the horror movies that Hollywood unleashes on the first weekend of January every year really is

 

 

Such art.

Don't forget the masterpiece of masterpieces:

 

 

Spoiler

And an actually good movie, for once:

 

 

[KeithF1138]

5 hours ago, Mojoguy said:

TLJ isn't going to be developing "magic" legs. Mixed WOM at best right now.

I think the actual WOM is better then people think. I think the effort to bring the RT audience score has slowed its BO, but as more and more people actually see it and spread WOM at work, talking to family and friends the true WOM is positive.  Of all the people I have talked to only two are on the fence about TLJ. I know it is anecdotal, but it sure seems like everyone I talk to about TLJ liked it or loved it.

[That One Girl]

Can’t believe y’all forgetting the modern masterpiece Season of the Witch.

[Blaze Heatnix]

8 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

 

In all seriousness, i think IW will dive like HP: DH2 in weekend 2 (-70%), regardless if its well received or not. The must-see-as-early-as-possible-factor will be out of this world.

 

Lol, you got me!!! XD

 

I'm out of likes now, but you'll get one for sure as soon as possible!

[WrathOfHan]

4 hours ago, EmpireCity said:I simply don't see it for January 18.  Here are the releases.....

 

- Molly's Game (the current PTA in limited indicates zero chance of anything happening)

- The Post (the best chance to have a true break out with Spielberg and award's season

- Paddington 2 (second best chance due to Warner Bros. and reviews)

- 12 Strong (dead in the water)

- Proud Mary (third best chance for a break out, but that date has too many wide releases)

- The Commuter (Lol)

- Den of Thieves (Lol)

- Maze Runner: The Death Cure (might hit around $80m if reviews are good and people still remember these movies)

 

 

 

You've heard bad things about 12 Strong?  

1 hour ago, That One Guy said:

The only pieces of marketing I've seen for the Insidious movie that comes out in a week:

 

-Me voluntarily watching the trailer when it was released

-Getting the trailer in front of Happy Death Day

-An ad on IMDb

-Maybe I saw a poster at my theater?

 

I can't remember the last time a release from the big six had this little hype or marketing surrounding it.  Jesus Christ.

I've been getting a lot of ads on YouTube for it over the past few days.

[That One Girl]

good ending

 

[RandomCat]

Took a date to see Devil inside. She said she liked it.

 

Never spoke to her again.

[filmlover]

Audiences all over the country booing The Devil Inside actually made the local news back when it came out. 

[dxmatrixdt]

4 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Audiences all over the country booing The Devil Inside actually made the local news back when it came out. 

turned out to be one of the best found footage films tooo!

[RandomCat]

Devil Inside: we don't have an ending.

[FantasticBeasts]

Devil Inside made x100 it's budget..

Talk about success!