Tuesday Numbers (Dec 26): TLJ 27.7, Jumanji: 17.1, PP3 7.4, TGS 5.1 (actuals/estimates)

[KP1025]

I don't think IW is getting anywhere near $2 billion. I think $1.5-1.6 billion is a good range for it.

[redfirebird2008]

15 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Now you see, I'm not THAT sure we SHOULD think that.  The higher the OW the less the multiplier we should expect, no matter what the season.  

 

Take Return of the King. It had a five day opening bow, so that messes with things more than a little bit.  But if we take its 5day as an indication of its OW it got a 3.03x multiplier.  Adj it comes out to around a 183m 5day OW (Dec 17 - Dec 21).  Final total is around 549.5 adj.

 

If people squawk at that, whatever.  Bump up the multi slightly, I don't care.  Fact is it made "only" 253m after its opening weekend (366m adj).

 

This is one of THE most beloved epics of all freaking time.  And, yes, I remember people being disappointed with its holiday run as well at the time.  

 

Now I already hear the complaints about five day versus three day.  Well, I heard them last year too and I still don't buy the counter arguments. 

 

In a way, it shows how utterly bonkers TFA really was that it was burning demand all the way up to Christmas Fucking Day.

 

And this is why I think it is more than a little ridiculous to look at a film that opens at 155 OW (R1) and one that opens at 220 OW (TLJ) and expect them to get the same multiplier.  We wouldn't in the summer time, so why should we in the holiday season?

 

None of this is to say that TLJ shouldn't have gotten a 3x.  It probably should.  I'm just talking purely about how a very large OW should temper expectations for the multiplier, unless there is extreme circumstances.

 

====

 

One thing that these current blockbusters in the winter time MIGHT be doing is giving us actual data sets for films that earn more than 150m OW during this holiday season.  Before we had imperfect comparisons with things like 5 days and 3 days and three plus hour films. And so on and so on and so on.  There was plenty of theorycrafting going on, is more or less what I am saying.

 

Well actual hard data trumps theorycrafting.  And the more data we get the better we should be able to predict the future blockbusters that are coming to the holiday frame.

 

Like say those Avatar films people keep wondering about.

 

You should not assume Return of the King’s 5-day gross would be equal to a hypothetical 3-day gross with a Friday opening. More accurate approach is to average the 5-day and 3-day grosses.

 

Gonna get ugly if we take the 5-day multiplier for Last Jedi and compare it with that 5-day multi you mentioned for ROTK. Would require a $796m gross to pull a 3.04 multiplier from the 5-day opening. 

Edited December 27, 2017 by redfirebird2008

[cannastop]

4 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

Hahahagahaga

 

2.08b might be possible? You're jokinh right...

So you'd have a meltdown if it missed that mark? Good to know.

[NoLegMan]

I think since Spiderman, and Guardians are involved, and Dr. Strange. this film could perform better than expected.

[IronJimbo]

2 minutes ago, NoLegMan said:

if Avatar 2 makes 1.3B it's a flop /s

"/s" ruins the post.

[LinksterAC]

3 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

A1&A2 over sws7,8,9 is locked for worldwide.

Good God no it isn't.

[aabattery]

I would also be genuinely shocked if IW made 2B. Almost 0% chance that happens, IMO.

 

It would need to increase by at least 50% OS to do that. I can't really see any way of that happening.

 

[Lordmandeep]

I wonder if IW will be the first comic book movie to break a billion overseas? 

 

 

[FantasticBeasts]

Just started a club

 

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, cannastop said:

So you'd have a meltdown if it missed that mark? Good to know.

No point in wasting memory space with that, a2 is making 3b.

[RandomCat]

Avatar 2 < 1b ww.

[cannastop]

1 minute ago, Lordmandeep said:

I wonder if IW will be the first comic book movie to break a billion overseas? 

 

 

With exchange rates they are, I doubt it.

[LinksterAC]

1 minute ago, Sand-omJC said:

Avatar 2 < 1b ww.

Come on, man.

[Elessar]

14 minutes ago, NoLegMan said:

  I wouldn't even say IW will pass Avatar.

"Even"? It won't pass Avengers, let alone Avatar.

[RandomCat]

1 minute ago, LinksterAC said:

Come on, man.

Not the dumbest thing I've seen in this thread.

[Porthos]

6 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

You should not assume Return of the King’s 5-day gross would be equal to a hypothetical 3-day gross with a Friday opening. More accurate approach is to average the 5-day and 3-day grosses.

Which is why I noted how much money RotK did Dec 22nd on.

 

Of course, RotK is imperfect comparison for another reason:  3:30 is longer than 2:30, last time I checked.  But one would think that would help the legs due to less showtimes per day.

 

All I is really saying is that we are now, finally, getting real hard data for honest to goodness blockbusters in the Xmas season.  Before there were all sorts of mitigating factors making comparisons very hard (and debatable).  And the more data we get for this time frame the better our predictions and expectations should be.

 

No more, no less.

[cannastop]

We finally have Jumanji numbers! 10% drop! Crumbing!

 

TUESDAY BOX OFFICE

1.	Star Wars: The Last Jedi	$27,734,356
2.	Jumanji (2017)	$17,100,000

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, Sand-omJC said:

Not the dumbest thing I've seen in this thread.

Considering we had the poster who is convinced Disney is cooking the books in regards to TLJ post earlier here: low bar is low.

 

[LinksterAC]

9 minutes ago, cannastop said:

With exchange rates they are, I doubt it.

People really should not disregard exchange rates.  In that respect, Avatar released in just about the perfect climate. 

The dollar was incredibly weak in early 2010.

Edited December 27, 2017 by LinksterAC

[Porthos]

4 minutes ago, cannastop said:

We finally have Jumanji numbers! 10% drop! Crumbing!

 

TUESDAY BOX OFFICE

1.	Star Wars: The Last Jedi	$27,734,356
2.	Jumanji (2017)	$17,100,000

More BOM numbers, mixture of estimates and actuals:

 

<< PREVIOUS	Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Rank* Title Monday 12/25 Tuesday 12/26 Wednesday 12/27 Thursday 12/28 1 STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI Buena Vista 4,232 $27,459,557 +55.8% / $6,489 $395,627,411 / 11 $27,734,356 +1% / $6,553 $423,361,767 / 12 N/A N/A 2 JUMANJI: WELCOME TO THE JUNGLE Sony / Columbia 3,765 $19,000,000 (estimate) +109.7% / $5,046 $72,005,967 / 6 $17,100,000 (estimate) -10% / $4,542 $89,105,967 / 7 N/A N/A 3 PITCH PERFECT 3 Universal 3,447 $6,496,365 +146.7% / $1,885 $26,424,890 / 4 $7,445,505 +14.6% / $2,160 $33,870,395 / 5 N/A N/A 4 THE GREATEST SHOWMAN Fox 3,006 $5,604,273 +161.8% / $1,864 $19,008,847 / 6 $5,138,347 -8.3% / $1,709 $24,147,194 / 7 N/A N/A 5 FERDINAND Fox 3,630 $2,801,780 +83.7% / $772 $29,601,410 / 11 $4,000,815 +42.8% / $1,102 $33,602,225 / 12 N/A N/A 6 COCO Buena Vista 2,111 $2,805,466 +112.6% / $1,329 $164,307,743 / 34 $2,746,967 -2.1% / $1,301 $167,054,710 / 35 N/A N/A 7 DOWNSIZING Paramount 2,668 $2,715,843 +135% / $1,018 $7,670,130 / 4 $1,926,413 -29.1% / $722 $9,596,543 / 5 N/A N/A 8 ALL THE MONEY IN THE WORLD TriStar 2,068 $2,600,000 (estimate) -- / $1,257 $2,600,000 / 1 $1,760,000 (estimate) -32.3% / $851 $4,360,000 / 2 N/A N/A 9 DARKEST HOUR Focus Features 806 $1,622,510 +73% / $2,013 $8,367,532 / 34 $1,518,300 -6.4% / $1,884 $9,885,832 / 35 N/A N/A 10 FATHER FIGURES Warner Bros. 2,902 $2,200,000 (estimate) +201.4% / $758 $5,480,000 / 4 $1,445,000 (estimate) -34.3% / $498 $6,925,000 / 5 N/A N/A 11 THE SHAPE OF WATER Fox Searchlight 730 $1,419,891 +95.4% / $1,945 $8,986,046 / 25 $1,140,599 -19.7% / $1,562 $10,126,645 / 26 N/A N/A 12 WONDER Lionsgate 794 $710,214 +76.6% / $894 $115,654,826 / 39 $880,000 (estimate) +23.9% / $1,108 $116,534,826 / 40 N/A N/A - MOLLY'S GAME STX Entertainment 271 $1,042,075 -- / $3,845 $1,042,075 / 1 $668,250 -35.9% / $2,466 $1,710,325 / 2 N/A N/A - JUSTICE LEAGUE Warner Bros. 1,101 $450,000 (estimate) +83.7% / $409 $223,133,455 / 39 $440,000 (estimate) -2.2% / $400 $223,573,455 / 40 N/A N/A - DADDY'S HOME 2 Paramount 1,073 $544,612 +149.5% / $508 $99,751,582 / 46 $433,169 -20.5% / $404 $100,184,751 / 47 N/A N/A - LADY BIRD A24 372 $415,989 +60.4% / $1,118 $28,715,314 / 53 $428,468 +3% / $1,152 $29,143,782 / 54 N/A N/A - THOR: RAGNAROK Buena Vista 701 $329,457 +64.3% / $470 $309,454,093 / 53 $330,578 +0.3% / $472 $309,784,671 / 54 N/A N/A - THE DISASTER ARTIST A24 488 $325,057 +77.2% / $666 $16,020,034 / 25 $315,305 -3% / $646 $16,335,339 / 26 N/A N/A - MURDER ON THE ORIENT EXPRESS (2017) Fox 361 $203,411 +58.3% / $563 $99,444,878 / 46 $195,017 -4.1% / $540 $99,639,895 / 47 N/A N/A - THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI Fox Searchlight 264 $207,975 +42.5% / $788 $22,949,085 / 46 $187,107 -10% / $709 $23,136,192 / 47 N/A N/A - THE POST Fox 9 $236,046 +35.2% / $26,227 $762,057 / 4 $156,610 -33.7% / $17,401 $918,667 / 5 N/A N/A - PHANTOM THREAD Focus Features 4 $127,272 -- / $31,818 $127,272 / 1 $66,733 -47.6% / $16,683 $194,005 / 2 N/A N/A - A BAD MOMS CHRISTMAS STX Entertainment 275 $60,302 +121.9% / $219 $71,571,546 / 55 $57,638 -4.4% / $210 $71,629,184 / 56 N/A N/A - THE FLORIDA PROJECT A24 43 $9,430 +45.9% / $219 $5,204,890 / 81 $13,108 +39% / $305 $5,217,998 / 82 N/A N/A - HOSTILES Entertainment Studios 3 $9,606 +64.5% / $3,202 $32,455 / 4 $4,834 -49.7% / $1,611 $37,289 / 5 N/A N/A - VICTORIA AND ABDUL Focus Features 24 $2,840 +114.3% / $118 $22,205,730 / 95 $4,405 +55.1% / $184 $22,210,135 / 96 N/A N/A - MARSHALL Open Road Films 58 $1,937 +82.9% / $33 $9,450,507 / 74 $2,532 +30.7% / $44 $9,453,039 / 75 N/A N/A - THE KILLING OF A SACRED DEER A24 8 $602 +3.4% / $75 $2,289,085 / 67 $1,008 +67.4% / $126 $2,290,093 / 68 N/A N/A - LET THERE BE LIGHT Atlas Distribution 8 $736 +1.1% / $92 $7,203,504 / 60 $304 -58.7% / $38 $7,203,808 / 61 N/A N/A