baumer Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 3 hours ago, JonathanLB said: I'm certainly not trying to ruffle any feathers, but given the enormously small sample size of $150M+ openers in the holiday season, literally only the 3 Star Wars movies from Disney, I'm not sure that it's fair to assume the sky high multiples will always still apply. I guess what I'm saying is that it's certainly easier to achieve a 3.5 to 4.0 multiplier off a smaller weekend, that's all. The higher the OW, the more difficult it becomes, to the point where you can put up some still very nice numbers thereafter and fall short. Another way to put it is if TFA had opened to $295M and managed just a 2.9 multiple, plenty enough to beat Avatar easily, I would have been no less pleased with the result. I wouldn't have known any better, and it would have established the precedent that perhaps an enormous holiday opener cannot have those legs. TFA instead somehow managed what I assumed to be impossible before -- summer blockbuster opening (and a record one) with December legs. It's a fanboy's wet dream. It's like a Genie asked me, "What's your wish?" and I said, "For everyone to be as excited to see the new Star Wars as I am!" and wam, it happened. That's basically how the TFA box office run felt like. It was so good that if I had a dream about that box office run, I'd wake up blushing because of the greed of the dream. But it came true, in reality. I like your SW enthusiasm and I like the way you post, but with all due respect, I say this in a non confrontational way, I think you are moving the goal posts here. The fact is, TFA did have a 3.78 multiplier. The fact is the numbers have been soft so far. The fact is it had a horrible increase on Christmas Day when almost every other film in the top ten had almost a 100% increase. The fact is there is a very loud group of people who were disappointed in the film and I think we have enough data to support the notion that if the film was better received it would be doing better overall at this point. What we don't have is any real clue as to where it will end up when all is said and done. I admit that if it gets to 700, then the WOM is fine. And I hope it does because I love SW on a whole. The first week of January is going to be the deciding factor in where it ends up. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 3 hours ago, TommyA10 said: How many of these movies opened to 220m though? Could it simply be that more demand was burned off in the OW, leading to worse legs overall (plus the fact TLJ ain't getting your "once in a lifetime moviegoer" to see it in theater)... How many Star Wars films have opened in December, grossed 150 million or more and had a 3.3 multiplier? Every one of them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AN9815 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 I watched 'The Last Jedi' again in theaters and I absolutely loved it this time. Though it was a better movie than 'Force Awakens', I had issues on my first time but many of them were solved on this second viewing. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 I think SW 9 can easily "recover" and get back to 800 million. They just need to get some more "fan service" in the next trailer and hint at some of it in the plot and I think it will do well enough to get there. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FantasticBeasts Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 27 minutes ago, fmpro said: Yeah its a chinese livetracking site where you can follow a new update every 30 min. You can see the daily BO and usually 2 weeks ahead in presales. And this shows that SW8 is at around 1,6 mill yuan with 7 days to go Thor 3 was a little less and JL was around 1/2. Both movies made 100 mill+$ I dont expect SW8 to beat either in total but a few days ago a few here had the impression that this would do around 24 mill total in China. A 80% drop from the last one.. Im just stating that its impossible. How much its going to make will depend on WOM and competition in 2nd weekend. But my very early GUESS is 70-80 mill. Maybe more I am surprised that you are the first one telling that and even more surprise since only the day before yesterday people were telling that this was at half of Dunkirk's presales. Why such a sudden boom? I never believed that this would do $25m, but after asking some experts on chinrse BO here the range I was given was $40-70m and that is what I will keep in mind, which is pathetic for a holiwood blockbuster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 20 minutes ago, Christmas baumer said: Sorry, but I respectfully disagree. Films in December, especially ones released just before Christmas, typically have a multiplier of 3.5 or higher. This isn't a theory, it's a fact. December weekdays act like a weekend, for two weeks straight, so the multipliers are usually higher. Now, the wild card in all of this is that schools are still out until January the 8th, so the multiplier could very well pick up significantly. If this finishes with 725, then I will admit that I am wrong and that the word of mouth was good enough to get it to a 3.3. But right now, it looks like it's on pace to finish with either just under or just over a 3 and that indicates the kind of wom that has people divided. Here's just a few examples for you (multipliers for big tentpoles in December) Avatar: Forget Jake, it's Avatar Sherlock Holmes: 3.37 (and this opened CD) Tron Legacy: 3.9 Narnia 3: 4.3 Hobbit 1: 3.6 Hobbit 2: 3.5 Hobbit 3: 5.1 (if you take its first three days) TFA: 3.78 Rogue 1: 3.43 So as you can see, if it really does miss a 3X, it will be the first big movie released just before Christmas, to not have a three X, in almost a decade. And I just went back to 2009, I'm sure I could go further and the numbers would support me every year. I totally agree with you. The biggest film opening in December to ever miss a 3x multiplier opened in 2008 and it is The Day the Earth Stood Still opened with 30.5 Mio and finished with 79.4 for a 2.6x multiplier, every movie opening above that in December managed a 3x multiplier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hw64 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 4 minutes ago, EmpireCity said: If certain people are going to talk about Avatar over and over, then at least put it in full context when talking about those numbers and acknowledge that those international numbers count for about 25% of what the domestic numbers do. Nobody cares about studio profit except studios and shareholders. People want to know which movies were the most popular - that's why admissions tracking/estimating and adjusted grosses are so prevalent in box office discussions. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 3 hours ago, FantasticBeasts said: I am surprised that you are the first one telling that and even more surprise since only the day before yesterday people were telling that this was at half of Dunkirk's presales. Why such a sudden boom? I never believed that this would do $25m, but after asking some experts on chinrse BO here the range I was given was $40-70m and that is what I will keep in mind, which is pathetic for a holiwood blockbuster. No it's not. China has no history with SW, so they don't support it. SW never played in China. TFA was the first one to do so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hw64 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Just now, Christmas baumer said: No it's not. China has no history with SW, so they don't support it. SW never played in China. TFA was the first one to do so. That's factually wrong. All three of the prequels were released in China. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 3 hours ago, Taruseth said: I totally agree with you. The biggest film opening in December to ever miss a 3x multiplier opened in 2008 and it is The Day the Earth Stood Still opened with 30.5 Mio and finished with 79.4 for a 2.6x multiplier, every movie opening above that in December managed a 3x multiplier. To be fair, that doesn't really qualify as it opened on the 12th. The films I'm looking at are ones that opened the week before Christmas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 3 hours ago, hw64 said: Nobody cares about studio profit except studios and shareholders. People want to know which movies were the most popular - that's why admissions tracking/estimating and adjusted grosses are so prevalent in box office discussions. You're right. My apologies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grey ghost Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Avatar is OS king. Star Wars is DOM king. Avatar was king of everywhere until TFA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerPaw Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 (edited) 10 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said: I am surprised that you are the first one telling that and even more surprise since only the day before yesterday people were telling that this was at half of Dunkirk's presales. Why such a sudden boom? I never believed that this would do $25m, but after asking some experts on chinrse BO here the range I was given was $40-70m and that is what I will keep in mind, which is pathetic for a holiwood blockbuster. It has one week to itself. Before Jumanji explodes the next weekend. I have seen Jumanji and it feels like a Stephen Chow Comedy, i think Jumanji will gross more than 150m USD in China. Edited December 28, 2017 by TigerPaw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 6 minutes ago, Christmas baumer said: I think SW 9 can easily "recover" and get back to 800 million. They just need to get some more "fan service" in the next trailer and hint at some of it in the plot and I think it will do well enough to get there. I really hope it does that. I think that films first week will be half of it's final gross, unless it has amazing word of mouth and an empty January, Because 25th and 26th are Wednesday and Thursday in that week. But I hope they don't go over the top with the fan service, in the past (AotC) that didn't really work that well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmpireCity Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, hw64 said: Nobody cares about studio profit except studios and shareholders. People want to know which movies were the most popular - that's why admissions tracking/estimating and adjusted grosses are so prevalent in box office discussions. Adjusted grosses only work on a very basic level and you can't extrapolate them out over time. For example, something like Gone With the Wind gets trotted out over and over and it is a great movie and undoubtedly one of the most popular movies of all time, but the reality is it was released at a time when there were very limited entertainment options. Anything with mass appeal was going to put up absurd numbers because there wasn't much else grab those entertainment dollars. I hate when it gets trotted out for a lot of movies as a way to diminish newer movies. Well, yeah, that older movie did way more adjusted but a lot of it had to do with having no television and only a couple of radio stations to listen to. There wasn't 500+ cable channels, Netflix, Hulu, YouTube, Vudu, video games, online games, the internet, enhanced local entertainment, endless sporting events and about 50 other entertainment options to compete with. That movie theater also had often times the only air conditioning in the entire city on a hot summer day. 19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grey ghost Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 How much did ESB and AOTC drop from previous SW movies? I feel like expecting a 10-20% drop for TLJ was always a long shot because of how the second movie typically drops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmpireCity Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 4 minutes ago, Christmas baumer said: You're right. My apologies. Not your fault, most of us don't really count the prequels as Star Wars movies. 3 1 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grey ghost Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 A standard 725-750 m run with a 85+ audience RT score for TLJ would've been boring af. Bless Disney for keeping things interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Premium George Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Wait 3 more years iron jimbo. I hope this rebounds to 750m. Every new film is hitting my winter game hardest they can do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grey ghost Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 I underestimated The Rock/Kevin Hart and Pixar and my Winter Game paid dearly for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
