Wednesday Numbers(27/12/17):TLJ $22m

[somebody85]

TLJ seems to be doing fine. Those are great numbers for weekdays. It's not bombing or anything, it's just not TFA....which everyone said was a once in a decade phenomenon as it was happening.

Jumanji holding up much stronger than I thought.

On the topic of SW scores, I remember many here saying TFA score was underwhelming but as time went on, it really grew on them. That could be the same with TLJ.

[Brainbug]

4 minutes ago, a2knet said:

If JUMANJI averages 15 over Thu-Mon (which is possible as Fri, Sat and Mon should be 15+ while Thu, Sun 15-), then it will be on ~180 dom after a 60+ 4-day.  So need to add 2x the 4-day to get to 300 dom.

 

RO added 1.38x the 4-day. For JUMANJI to do at least 1.5x seems like a safe bet for 180 + 90 = 270 dom, same as SING.

 

We have seen some cases where legs haven't held up after we got excited - WONDER and COCO for eg - so 300 still very tough. But 260-270 seems realistic at least.

 

If it gets about the 270 of Sing, it will be the highest-grossing movie to never hit No. 1 if TLJ doesnt collapse after the holidays.

[estebanJ]

1 minute ago, somebody85 said:

TLJ seems to be doing fine. Those are great numbers for weekdays. It's not bombing or anything, it's just not TFA....which everyone said was a once in a decade phenomenon as it was happening.

Jumanji holding up much stronger than I thought.

On the topic of SW scores, I remember many here saying TFA score was underwhelming but as time went on, it really grew on them. That could be the same with TLJ.

 

TLJ wasn't as good as its 93% tomato rating implies, but it was a good movie, a lot of fun.

 

If Star Wars releases in the near future drop off in box office, it will be from fatigue, and because you can only say goodbye to Carrier Fisher once, not because this film left a bad taste that carries over to the next release. There just wasn't anything bad-tasting about it.

[somebody85]

Had TLJ OW been on the high range (like it was estimated Saturday afternoon) it really had a shot at JL DOM looking at those numbers unless that gets another breath of life. It looks like it could have been close because it's not that far off right now.

[Taruseth]

4 hours ago, Brainbug said:

So i saw TLJ for the 3rd time today and i somehow convinced my parents to go with me.

 

My father is somewhat critical of big franchises. He hates Marvel, laughs at DC and mostly watches smaller movies, for example, his favourite movie of 2016 was Hell or High Water. Now, hes seen all the SW movies and likes the OT (with ESB as his favourite) and finds the PT unwatchable. He found TFA to be entertaining, but somewhat lacking in originality and found Rogue One to be boring. My mother is a longtime SW-Fan.

 

TLJ is now their favourite movie of the saga. Both loved it to pieces. Which makes me happy, since the 3rd time today finally convinced me, that it is indeed the best SW movie. After we watched it, i told them about the controversy and they found all of it to be completely ridiculous and out of proportion. I love my parents.

 

Thanks Disney and Rian Johnson for TLJ. Hopefully Disney realizes that they should completely ignore any loud voices from the Internet. I trust J.J to make a satiesfying finale.

I totally agree with you on that,

4 hours ago, Brainbug said:

Oh, and after beeing bombarded with the JW2 trailer, whoever made the editing in that should be fired. Horrible, horrible editing and pacing. Makes it kinda unwatchable without cringing.

 

Still excited as fuck of course, but im a Dino-Nerd, so i was going to see it anyway. But that terrible trailer could make a lot of the GA very worried.

I again agree with you, to be honest that trailer really makes me want to just ignore that film. I hope the final trailer is better.

 

3 hours ago, JonathanLB said:

So BoxOffice.com thinks 20% decline? Seems very pessimistic. That’s 21-21-14 for the three days. Why would it increase 0% on Friday and 0% Saturday? I would have it at 23-26-17 personally. Small 15% increase or so both Friday and Saturday. 

 

Bottom line I see 5-10% decline this weekend not 20%.

We don't know the Thursday number yet if that would drop more than most here expect it would need better increases and they are estimating the 4 day drop and that most likely will be higher, because NYD is weaker than X-Mas Day. So a 20% 4-day weekend Drop might mean something like a 15% 3-Day Weekend drop.

2 hours ago, Brainbug said:

Off-topic maybe, but im listening to some Prequel music and i remember why i think John Williams deserves some sort of statue or monument.

 

Duel of the Fates. Across the Stars. Battle of the Heroes. Anakins Betrayal. March on the Jedi Temple.

 

Perfection. I often shit on the prequels, but the music is just absolutely phenomenal.

Again I totally agree.

I love the music.

 

 

[estebanJ]

4 minutes ago, somebody85 said:

TLJ seems to be doing fine. Those are great numbers for weekdays. It's not bombing or anything, it's just not TFA....which everyone said was a once in a decade phenomenon as it was happening.

Jumanji holding up much stronger than I thought.

 

For a lot of 30-ish sorts, Jumanji is a fond-childhood-memory movie that gives them an incentive to watch this new version.

 

I'm 50-ish, and liked the original Jumanji as well, so am going to give this film a look-see in the next few days.

[somebody85]

I would love to see The Shape Of Water but the one theater in this area that's playing it is 40+ minutes away. Still going to try and make it over the next few days. Had to do the same thing for A Ghost Story.

Sure wish one of my closer theaters would drop a few showings of Pitch Garbage 3 or Daddys Trash 2 to play it. One of them got Darkest Hour and Molly's Game but not that.

[somebody85]

4 minutes ago, estebanJ said:

 

For a lot of 30-ish sorts, Jumanji is a fond-childhood-memory movie that gives them an incentive to watch this new version.

 

I'm 50-ish, and liked the original Jumanji as well, so am going to give this film a look-see in the next few days.

Oh I know. I saw the original in theaters in 1994-1995 (I forgot what year it was) but I like 9 or 10. I really have no interest in seeing this one in theaters. I know what it's going to be and have had enough of those types of films this year.

[JonathanLB]

My local recliner theater, which I go to for the movies I care less about than the big ones (their sound is inconsistent, comfortable seating experience but movies are often too quiet), is almost sold out of the 7:40 Jumanji. We went with MoviePass around 2:45 and ended up getting tickets to the 2nd row, at least they're in the center, but that blows. Ever since they went with recliners, sure it's a great seating experience, but on a day like today they'll literally sell out almost every movie they're playing. People were consistently buying tickets (we had issues with the MoviePass app so were standing there for a while) to movies hours out because everything was selling out. 

 

I'm not sure why some people were so surprised about Jumanji doing well, like don't get me wrong if it finishes with $275M or something, no, I didn't see that coming, but with the holidays and all I would have been shocked if it didn't come close to $200M anyway. It's a good fun family movie (I'm assuming) and as was mentioned many people my age grew up watching the original. I can't say the original was a favorite of mine, I mean it wasn't Goonies or something, but it was definitely a movie I remember fondly enough to want to see the next iteration. Plus, I think The Rock is a huge draw as he does a great job on promoting himself and his movies. He has many fans. I count myself among them. I'll watch just about anything he's in actually, not always in theaters, but I will check it out (like San Andreas I didn't catch until home video).

[John Marston]

1 hour ago, Brainbug said:

 

Its hold will be a good indicator for how it will be playing into the most barren January in years. Seriously, this January is the definition of wasteland. I think it will boost all the holdovers.

 

 

It will still drop hard on the first weekend of January despite nothing much opening 

[RyneOh1040]

Give Jack Black the Best Supporting Actor for his HARROWING portrayal of Bethany in Jumanji.  Had me in tears.

 

Also finalllllyyyyy saw Three Billboards today and I THINK it might be my favorite film of the year.

[That One Girl]

4 hours ago, Brainbug said:

 

What is this 69 joke that is floating around here? Did i miss something?

 

It’s being blown out of proportion

[Brainbug]

2 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

 

It will still drop hard on the first weekend of January despite nothing much opening 

 

I dont think so. The 3-day drop will be softened because of New Years Eve falling on this Sunday. An under 45% drop on the 1st weekend of January woundt surprise me.

[WrathOfHan]

> NEW RELEASES
8	9	All the Money in the World	TriStar	2,074	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
16	23	Molly's Game	STX Entertainment	271	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
25	-	Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool	Sony Classics	4	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
26	47	Phantom Thread	Focus Features	4	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
> EXPANDING
3	4	Pitch Perfect 3	Universal	3,468	+21	+0.6%	-	-	-	-	2
5	5	The Greatest Showman	Fox	3,315	+309	+10.3%	-	-	-	-	2
9	14	Darkest Hour	Focus Features	943	+137	+17.0%	-	-	-	-	6
11	15	The Shape of Water	Fox Searchlight	756	+30	+4.1%	-	-	-	-	5
18	25	Call Me by Your Name	Sony Classics	115	+1	+0.9%	-	-	-	-	6
24	51	Hostiles	Entertainment Studios	5	+2	+66.7%	-	-	-	-	2
> NO CHANGE
1	1	Star Wars: The Last Jedi	Buena Vista	4,232	-	-	-	-	-	-	3
2	2	Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle	Sony / Columbia	3,765	-	-	-	-	-	-	2
22	40	The Post	Fox	9	-	-	-	-	-	-	2
27	50	Happy End	Sony Classics	3	-	-	-	-	-	-	2
> DECLINING
4	3	Ferdinand	Fox	3,337	-293	-8.1%	-	-	-	-	3
6	7	Downsizing	Paramount	2,664	-4	-0.1%	-	-	-	-	2
7	8	Coco	Buena Vista	2,104	-7	-0.3%	-	-	-	-	6
10	13	Daddy's Home 2	Paramount	770	-303	-28.2%	-	-	-	-	8
12	16	Thor: Ragnarok	Buena Vista	540	-161	-23.0%	-	-	-	-	9
13	17	The Disaster Artist	A24	507	-10	-1.9%	-	-	-	-	5
14	19	Lady Bird	A24	392	-10	-2.5%	-	-	-	-	9
15	18	Murder on the Orient Express (2017)	Fox	391	-56	-12.5%	-	-	-	-	8
17	20	Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri	Fox Searchlight	266	-41	-13.4%	-	-	-	-	8
19	29	Marshall	Open Road Films	50	-8	-13.8%	-	-	-	-	12
20	32	The Florida Project	A24	33	-10	-23.3%	-	-	-	-	13
21	35	Victoria and Abdul	Focus Features	23	-1	-4.2%	-	-	-	-	15
23	42	The Killing of a Sacred Deer	A24	7	-1	-12.5%	-	-	-	-	11

[Mojoguy]

I'm shocked Jumanji isn't getting more theaters this weekend.

[JonathanLB]

9 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

 

It will still drop hard on the first weekend of January despite nothing much opening 

Not as hard as you might think, I expect. Remember two factors: 1) The holidays aren't over for many many schools because break started late, so this is the FIRST week of break, NOT the second like it was for TFA. That means next Friday will be stronger than a typical January Friday. Most people with kids I know have their kids off until after the second weekend of January, they're not going back on the 2nd. They just got off on the 22nd, some of them, so they're at least off for two weeks. Even the ones who got off around here on the 15th were often off longer. 2) The Sunday to Sunday will help the weekend drop, because remember it's NYE this Sunday to a regular Sunday the next Sunday. I don't expect to see a "harsh" drop, I mean I still expect to see a 40-50% drop but nothing like 55-60%.

Edited December 29, 2017 by JonathanLB

[John Marston]

8 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

I dont think so. The 3-day drop will be softened because of New Years Eve falling on this Sunday. An under 45% drop on the 1st weekend of January woundt surprise me.

 

 

NEw Years Eve won't drop as hard as Christmas Eve and then Monday will absorb business 

[John Marston]

8 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

I dont think so. The 3-day drop will be softened because of New Years Eve falling on this Sunday. An under 45% drop on the 1st weekend of January woundt surprise me.

 

 

NEw Years Eve won't drop as hard as Christmas Eve and then Monday will absorb business 

[John Marston]

1 hour ago, a2knet said:

SW8 has a shot at 560 by New Years Monday. Needs 105 over next 5 days:

 

20.0 (-8.5%)

21.5 (+7.5%)

25.0 (+16%)

17.5 (-30%)

21.0 (+20%) // 85 4-day

560 cume

 

RO had a 66 4-day and added 91 more. That gives SW8 118 more for 560 + 118 = 678 dom

 

Within a couple of days 640-660 is changing to 660-680. Going as low as TA was always silly talk and seems even sillier now.

 

 

Don't know why people did and didn't take into account New Years weekend where films will have minuscule drops 

[JonathanLB]

Is there something I am not seeing waiting in the wings in January? How come the especially horrible movie slate this year? Either it’ll help holdovers a bit or it’ll just be a really crappy start of the year for moviegoing. Or both lol.

 

I mean I’ll watch The Commuter but I cannot see that movie breaking more than $15M OW, and probably more like $12M.