New Year's Day Weekend Thread: Late Friday estimates (DHD) - TLJ 19.5M, Jumanji 17.5M, PP3 6.7M, TGS 5.3M

[EmpireCity]

2 minutes ago, boomboom234 said:

It it is not as that is not a random sample, the choice to answer is voluntary, the people it is polling, opening night are not representative of the general population, and so on and so forth you can poke so many holes in their methodology 

 

You guys are talking about CinemaScore which is mildly accurate and semi-scientific, but what he meant is ComScore which is much more accurate and scientific.  

[boomboom234]

Just now, NoLegMan said:

 

most polling is voluntary.

When in combination with a not representative population both in terms of being in cities and the audience who goes to a STAR WARS move opening night in tends to skew a poll. Most polling is voluntary but it is random this is not. 

[RyneOh1040]

6 minutes ago, NoLegMan said:

Thanks for just proving my fucking point, that it's a scientific poll with a pretty high accuracy rate.

5 cities to represent the entire US is fair sample size?

 

cool, cool.  also maybe try to play it a little cooler when responding to people???

Edited December 31, 2017 by RyneOh1040

[Brainbug]

The funny thing with TLJ's A CinemaScore is, that everyone keeps saying that hardcore fans are skewing that rating because they like everything SW. However, judging from the Internet, the biggest haters of TLJ are SW-hardcore fans (like anytime a new SW comes out)

[EmpireCity]

1 minute ago, boomboom234 said:

Are you really going to make me look through that thread again man, you dismiseed every audience ranking I recall mentioning RT, Reddit, the futurist's french website, metacritic, as potential evidence that WOM would be divisive you dismissed them all as brigaded and trolled and said WOM would be fantastic. Do you deny that 

Correct, I was arguing correctly that the audience ranking data was being manipulated and is highly anecdotal while the actual data showed the opposite.  

 

WOM is still fantastic for The Last Jedi by every actual scientific polling method.  Even the box office is still great.  There is still no actual data other than people pointing and screaming LOOK OVER THERE!! that the WOM is poor.  

[Rebeccas]

I mean Age of Ultron is a pretty apt comparison. Also A cinemascore. Not a great reputation among fans.

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, Rebeccas said:

I mean Age of Ultron is a pretty apt comparison. Also A cinemascore. Not a great reputation among fans.

Funny I just watched that on tv, it was pretty lame I must say.

[MovieMan89]

Pretty irked JL is going to beat Logan DOM by so little. Logan was a hard R and JL was DCEU's 4 quad Avengers. Logan absolutely deserved to win given how close it was and Logan will surely be the admissions champ with no 3D. 

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, EmpireCity said:

Correct, I was arguing correctly that the audience ranking data was being manipulated and is highly anecdotal while the actual data showed the opposite.  

 

WOM is still fantastic for The Last Jedi by every actual scientific polling method.  Even the box office is still great.  There is still no actual data other than people pointing and screaming LOOK OVER THERE!! that the WOM is poor.  

 

Huh? I thought it crossing 500M DOM just 1 day faster than the non-event JW just underlines TLJ's floppage?

[EmpireCity]

If anyone has any question of how even a 15 minute longer running time hurts, if you have 5 shows per day on a screen, that means you have to account for an extra 1 hour and 15 minutes during the day.  

 

Rogue One and The Force Awakens were able to have better start times for their early and late shows.  The Last Jedi is having to start earlier and later to keep the same amount of sessions.  

 

It has a real effect on a film.  How much is not entirely known, but if your early start time is 9:15am instead of 10:00am and your late show has to start at 11:15pm and ends at 2:00am instead of 10:30pm and ending at 1:15am, it causes people to not attend those shows.  

[RyneOh1040]

5 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

Correct, I was arguing correctly that the audience ranking data was being manipulated and is highly anecdotal while the actual data showed the opposite.  

 

WOM is still fantastic for The Last Jedi by every actual scientific polling method.  Even the box office is still great.  There is still no actual data other than people pointing and screaming LOOK OVER THERE!! that the WOM is poor.  

yeah this makes no sense to me.  i honestly had never even heard of ComScore and i'd love to know more but I'm confused why multiple users here who have posted for years are just being dismissed when they say WOM is mixed, when that's their experience.  i mean, what would it take to make you think WOM isn't fantastic?

 

run time shouldn't be the issue it's being made out to be, and Jumanji and this should easily be able to coexist.

Edited December 31, 2017 by RyneOh1040

[boomboom234]

2 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

Correct, I was arguing correctly that the audience ranking data was being manipulated and is highly anecdotal while the actual data showed the opposite.  

 

WOM is still fantastic for The Last Jedi by every actual scientific polling method.  Even the box office is still great.  There is still no actual data other than people pointing and screaming LOOK OVER THERE!! that the WOM is poor.  

The box office is great in a vacuum,  but it's holds have not been and it might not pass JW or even win the year WW, whatever the polls there was clearly at least some form of a backlash. I hope we can agree that general audience reaction has not been as great as those polls nor as poor as RT audience poll, a middle ground

[RyneOh1040]

1 minute ago, boomboom234 said:

The box office is great in a vacuum,  but it's holds have not been and it might not pass JW or even win the year WW, whatever the polls there was clearly at least some form of a backlash. I hope we can agree that general audience reaction has not been as great as those polls nor as poor as RT audience poll, a middle ground

hear, hear!

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, EmpireCity said:

If anyone has any question of how even a 15 minute longer running time hurts, if you have 5 shows per day on a screen, that means you have to account for an extra 1 hour and 15 minutes during the day.  

 

Rogue One and The Force Awakens were able to have better start times for their early and late shows.  The Last Jedi is having to start earlier and later to keep the same amount of sessions.  

 

It has a real effect on a film.  How much is not entirely known, but if your early start time is 9:15am instead of 10:00am and your late show has to start at 11:15pm and ends at 2:00am instead of 10:30pm and ending at 1:15am, it causes people to not attend those shows.  

 

Just another way Jim breaks every convention known to man.

 

Titanic 3h 15m, most tickets sold in any single theatrical release domestically.

Avatar 2h 42m.

 

How does the madman do it?!

[The Futurist]

So 2018 will start with a bang with a Sony Pictures press release which will be about :

 

Release dates for Jumanji 2,3,4 (5,6 & 7 & beyond probably already scheduled)

Spin-offs and possible JCU.

Video Games.

The "Jumanji Brand".

[boomboom234]

1 minute ago, IronJimbo said:

 

Just another way Jim breaks every convention known to man.

 

Titanic 3h 15m, most tickets sold in any single theatrical release domestically.

Avatar 2h 42m.

 

How does the madman do it?!

That's why I think runtime, like release date is overrated if you build it they will come. TLJ just isn't at that level

[Brainbug]

Just now, IronJimbo said:

 

Just another way Jim breaks every convention known to man.

 

Titanic 3h 15m, most tickets sold in any single theatrical release domestically.

Avatar 2h 42m.

 

How does the madman do it?!

 

Titanic and Avatar were gigantic not because they broke daily record grosses but because of them having incredible legs. But i think you know that already^^

[MovieMan89]

Just now, EmpireCity said:

If anyone has any question of how even a 15 minute longer running time hurts, if you have 5 shows per day on a screen, that means you have to account for an extra 1 hour and 15 minutes during the day.  

 

Rogue One and The Force Awakens were able to have better start times for their early and late shows.  The Last Jedi is having to start earlier and later to keep the same amount of sessions.  

 

It has a real effect on a film.  How much is not entirely known, but if your early start time is 9:15am instead of 10:00am and your late show has to start at 11:15pm and ends at 2:00am instead of 10:30pm and ending at 1:15am, it causes people to not attend those shows.  

That's true, I've always maintained that the LOTR trilogy, Avatar, and Titanic could have actually had leggy runs if you chopped a solid 80 mins off of them. So much money lost. 

[AndyChrono]

6 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

Multipliers arent a holy grail of wisdom when it comes to a movies reception. Other factors like insane fan-frontloading can have big effects on it.

Struggling for a 3x multi during the Christmas season is pretty bad though. Only 12 major releases in December have ever failed to get a 3x. Pitch Perfect 3 is going to get it easily, so that basically leaves TLJ as potentially the 13th. The frontloading excuse does not really fly IMO, since there are actually movies in the same franchise - TFA and RO - that easily cleared a 3x in the same release schedule despite opening huge.

 

 

[Porthos]

13 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

The two things most hurting The Last Jedi are running time and a certified $300m+ breakout of another shorter crowd pleasing family choice.  It was evident on Christmas Day and is now evident this weekend.  Jumanji has broken through to mini-phenomenon level and is simply sucking up all the late breaking family business on the Holiday and the weekend.  

 

 

It's been an open question over the last couple of years whether or not two 300m+ films would hurt each other in the holiday season (just going by your estimation of Jumanji).

 

I think it's less of a question now, though it isn't entirely settled.  Of course, how much of TLJ's drop off is due to other factors, such as mixed WOM, is still an open question.  And whether or not Disney really cares all that much for that matter (I tend to think Sony is over the moon).

 

Where this might matter in the future is where more and more studios try to cram blockbusters in the holiday timeframe and they all hurt each other in the process.  A May/June crunch on steroids, as it were.