Best Picture Predictions - 2018

[Jake Gittes]

Currently thinking that best picture 

 

1. The Favourite

2. Roma

3. Black Klansman

(etc)

 

while best director

 

1. Spike Lee

2. Cuaron (these two are virtually tied for me though)

3. Lanthimos

4. Cooper

5. Chazelle

 

Beale Street and Backseat seem like the biggest unseen contenders that can throw a wrench into this. 

[Jake Gittes]

The most unexpected race of the season will def be in Actress if it really turns out to be Olivia Colman vs Lady Gaga. 

[Barnack]

Odds maker are still giving a lot for a The Favourite win (saw 14:1) could be good line to bet on right now.

 

Betters/odd maker still love first man

http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/e/12896970/Oscars - Best Picture.html

First man 4/1

Star is born 6/1

Roma 7/1

BlackKKlansman 8/1

Beautiful boy / Beale street / Front runner 10/1

Backseat / boy erased /widows 12/1

Black panther / favourite / Marwen / bernadette 14/1

 

 

[SLAM!]

The reactions posted on the Boy Erased thread have me thinking that it'll be skipping Best Picture as well. It'll definitely be in the conversation for acting, though! But as far as Picture and Director go, I think Focus Features is in the clear to put everything they've got behind BlacKkKlansman. 

 

Come on, Focus. Don't let what happened to Do The Right Thing happen to this one.

[filmlover]

3 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said:

The most unexpected race of the season will def be in Actress if it really turns out to be Olivia Colman vs Lady Gaga. 

Lady Gaga is gonna campaign like her life depends on it, that's for sure.

[filmlover]

Also gonna be funny when Gaga inevitably wins the Globe (assuming A Star is Born goes Musical/Comedy) considering what happened the last time she won there for that random season of American Horror Story:

 

Edited September 1, 2018 by filmlover

[MrPink]

4 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Lady Gaga is gonna campaign like her life depends on it, that's for sure.

 

Especially if she's on the edge....of glory. 😏

[WrathOfHan]

Destroyer probably depends on what Annapurna does with it. I'm not tossing Boy Erased out yet because Focus is strong at campaigning.

[The Panda]

I’m betting on Roma because Cuaron is coming for redemption after being denied BP despite winning everything else with Gravity

[CoolioD1]

19 minutes ago, PANDA said:

I’m betting on Roma because Cuaron is coming for redemption after being denied BP despite winning everything else with Gravity

meh didn't work for ang lee and you could make the same argument for chazelle.

[Joel M]

X director has multiple oscars but hasn't won Best Picture so he's gonna have a due narrative is a ridiculous argument all together. Cuaron has 2 personal oscars for just his last movie. He didn't win BP though that poor guy.

 

I'm sure people will still argue this next year with Tarantino, but it's just silly.

[CoolioD1]

i can call it 18 months in advance that the Tarantino won't win best picture. gotta be thinkpiece-proof to win today. shape of water, moonlight, spotlight, 12 years a slave all got helped because there was really nothing for journalists to write shitty hitpieces about in those.

[Barnack]

2 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

i can call it 18 months in advance that the Tarantino won't win best picture. gotta be thinkpiece-proof to win today. shape of water, moonlight, spotlight, 12 years a slave all got helped because there was really nothing for journalists to write shitty hitpieces about in those.

 

[CoolioD1]

birdman didn't have as much backlash at the time, a few critics didn't like it sure but that's not the same thing.

[Barnack]

14 minutes ago, Joel M said:

X director has multiple oscars but hasn't won Best Picture so he's gonna have a due narrative is a ridiculous argument all together

I don't know, I could someone making sense with that argument for a Scorsese for Departed type of situation. An aging legend with 7 noms can be helped by the never won narrative.

 

For a young multi winner like Cuaron and facing competition someone that also just lost BP, that become really weak.

[Barnack]

3 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

birdman didn't have as much backlash at the time, a few critics didn't like it sure but that's not the same thing.

I was just CAW! the absence in the list. It was also an pretty much 100% backlash free affair.

[Jake Gittes]

39 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

i can call it 18 months in advance that the Tarantino won't win best picture. gotta be thinkpiece-proof to win today. shape of water, moonlight, spotlight, 12 years a slave all got helped because there was really nothing for journalists to write shitty hitpieces about in those.

Sad but true. He might have lost whatever chances he still had of ever winning best picture and/or director after the recent string of controversies. 

[The Panda]

2 hours ago, CoolioD1 said:

meh didn't work for ang lee and you could make the same argument for chazelle.

Cuaron is on a higher level than those two though

[CoolioD1]

i dunno i'd agree about that. it seems like a pretty subjective "but i like him more". chazelle sure but i'd say cuaron and lee are pretty level in terms of respect even if cuaron has fewer duds.

[Cmasterclay]

4 hours ago, CoolioD1 said:

i'll stick with my five of bale, cooper, gosling, redford, malek (because early buzz is good but he looks shaky as hell to me in the trailers but we'll see) if the herd thins out enough i could even see john david washington getting a nomination even tho that's a lowkey performance for them. maybe ethan hawke in first reformed could come back around if the critics awards go for it.

Okay it's gonna sound mean and petty but I have to say it: Mr Robot's eyes weird me out and his weird eyes take me out of the trailer. Hard to disappear into the character with those eyes, all I see is him, not Mercury. But critics probably will not agree with this dumb superficial opinion.