CoolioD1 Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 19 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said: I still have my same five in Supporting Actor with Jordan winning now instead of Ali. That said, the early rave reviews for Rockwell, Carell, and even Lin Manuel Miranda throw a wrench in that. Once full reviews drop I def might move one of them in. LMM is being campaigned in lead by disney. honestly even with that category looking kinda weak i'm tempted to even predict him there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 I’m close to putting Lin into my predicts as well. I can overcome my.... bias towards him. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 Also, going forward I have made some revisions to how I am going to compile the precursors to see if I can have a more accurate system this time. Currently thinking 15% weight to Critics Circles and Minor Awards overall 15% weight to Experts Ranking (based off of AwardsWatch and Goldderby) 15% weight to Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards 55% weight to Guilds and BAFTAs I'll then weight each individual circle I decide to factor into the model. I'll then weight the circles on each individual circle award based off of, how many of their nominees for a field end up with an Academy nomination, and how many of their wins end up with an academy nomination, based off the last 5 years (so they'll essentially be given a full set of 10 potential points, then based off of whatever percentage of nominations or wins that circle matches with will match their points. So if they match with the Academy 15% of the time, a nomination from that circle yields 1.5 points. Of course, the cumulative points from the circles will then be multiplied by 0.15, so their points will account for 15% of the total points. I'm hoping this method will end up yielding more accurate results. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 Also, I'm glad to see people are joining me on the MBJ Oscar Train Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 1 hour ago, PANDA said: Also, I'm glad to see people are joining me on the MBJ Oscar Train i've had him in my predictions for months but i've honestly been feeling to finally take him out now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aabattery Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 16 hours ago, CoolioD1 said: i've had him in my predictions for months but i've honestly been feeling to finally take him out now. That's when you tap him in for a lead actor nom for Creed II. Belieeeeeve. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 16 hours ago, aabattery said: That's when you tap him in for a lead actor nom for Creed II. Belieeeeeve. Not impossible given how weak that field looks. But I think Lin-Manuel Miranda pulls a nom, barring Poppins doesn’t flop. Id say Jordan is still in a very weak favorable position to win Supporting currently, given that field is practically empty. He has the showiest and most complete performance of the bunch (somehow), minus Ali and Rockwell who both recently won. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 New full predictions: Spoiler Picture: 1. Vice 2. A Star Is Born 3. The Favourite 4. Roma 5. Mary Poppins Returns 6. Black Panther 7. BlacKkKlansman 8. If Beale Street Could Talk 9. Widows --------------------- 10. Green Book Alt: First Man Director: 1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born 2. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite 3. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma 4. Adam McKay, Vice 5. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman Alt: Rob Marshall, Mary Poppins Returns Actor: 1. Christian Bale, Vice 2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born 3. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody 4. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book 5. Ryan Gosling, First Man Alt: Lin Manuel-Miranda, Mary Poppins Returns Actress: 1. Olivia Colman, The Favourite 2. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born 3. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns 4. Glenn Close, The Wife 5. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? Alt: Viola Davis, Widows Supporting Actor: 1. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? 2. Mahershala Ali, Green Book 3. Steve Carell, Vice 4. Sam Rockwell, Vice 5. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther Alt: Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born Supporting Actress: 1. Amy Adams, Vice 2. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk 3. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite 4. Emma Stone, The Favourite 5. Elizabeth Debicki, Widows Alt: Natalie Portman, Vox Lux Original Screenplay: 1. Vice 2. The Favourite 3. Roma 4. A Quiet Place 5. Eighth Grade Alt: First Reformed Adapted Screenplay: 1. BlacKkKlansman 2. If Beale Street Could Talk 3. A Star Is Born 4. Widows 5. Can You Ever Forgive Me? Alt: Black Panther Cinematography: 1. Roma 2. First Man 3. The Favourite 4. If Beale Street Could Talk 5. A Star Is Born Alt: Vice Editing: 1. Vice 2. Roma 3. A Star Is Born 4. The Favourite 5. Mary Poppins Returns Alt: BlacKkKlansman Animated: 1. Incredibles 2 2. Isle of Dogs 3. Ralph Breaks the Internet 4. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse 5. Mirai Alt: Early Man Documentary: 1. Three Identical Strangers 2. RBG 3. Won't You Be My Neighbor? 4. Free Solo 5. Minding the Gap Alt: On Her Shoulders Production Design: 1. The Favourite 2. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald 3. Mary Poppins Returns 4. Roma 5. Black Panther Alt: Mary Queen of Scots Costume Design: 1. The Favourite 2. Mary Queen of Scots 3. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald 4. Black Panther 5. Mary Poppins Returns Alt: Bohemian Rhapsody Makeup: 1. Vice 2. The Favourite 3. Black Panther Alt: Mary Queen of Scots Score: 1. If Beale Street Could Talk 2. Mary Poppins Returns 3. Mary Queen of Scots 4. Black Panther 5. Vice Alt: First Man Song: 1. Shallow, A Star Is Born 2. All the Stars, Black Panther 3. Trip a Little Light Fantastic, Mary Poppins Returns 4. I'll Fight, RBG 5. Sunflower, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse Alt: Here Comes the Change, On the Basis of Sex Visual Effects: 1. Mary Poppins Returns 2. Avengers: Infinity War 3. First Man 4. Black Panther 5. Solo: A Star Wars Story Alt: Bumblebee Sound Editing: 1. A Quiet Place 2. A Star Is Born 3. Black Panther 4. Widows 5. Roma Alt: Avengers: Infinity War Sound Mixing: 1. Mary Poppins Returns 2. A Quiet Place 3. A Star Is Born 4. First Man 5. Bohemian Rhapsody Alt: Roma Nomination counts: 11: The Favourite (Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actress x2, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Production Design, Costume Design, Makeup) 10: A Star Is Born (Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Song, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing) Vice (Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor x2, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Editing, Makeup, Score) 9: Mary Poppins Returns (Picture, Actress, Editing, Production Design, Costume Design, Song, Score, Visual Effects, Sound Mixing) 8: Black Panther (Picture, Supporting Actor, Production Design, Costume Design, Score, Song, Visual Effects, Sound Editing) Roma (Picture, Director, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Production Design, Sound Editing, Foreign Film) 5: If Beale Street Could Talk (Picture, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Score) 4: First Man (Actor, Cinematography, Visual Effects, Sound Mixing) Widows (Picture, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Sound Editing) 3: BlacKkKlansman (Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay) Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Actress, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay) A Quiet Place (Original Screenplay, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing) 2: Bohemian Rhapsody (Actor, Sound Mixing) Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (Production Design, Costume Design) Green Book (Actor, Supporting Actor) Mary Queen of Scots (Costume Design, Score) RBG (Documentary, Song) Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (Animated, Song) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 7 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said: New full predictions: Hide contents Picture: 1. Vice 2. A Star Is Born 3. The Favourite 4. Roma 5. Mary Poppins Returns 6. Black Panther 7. BlacKkKlansman 8. If Beale Street Could Talk 9. Widows --------------------- 10. Green Book Alt: First Man Director: 1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born 2. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite 3. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma 4. Adam McKay, Vice 5. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman Alt: Rob Marshall, Mary Poppins Returns Actor: 1. Christian Bale, Vice 2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born 3. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody 4. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book 5. Ryan Gosling, First Man Alt: Lin Manuel-Miranda, Mary Poppins Returns Actress: 1. Olivia Colman, The Favourite 2. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born 3. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns 4. Glenn Close, The Wife 5. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? Alt: Viola Davis, Widows Supporting Actor: 1. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? 2. Mahershala Ali, Green Book 3. Steve Carell, Vice 4. Sam Rockwell, Vice 5. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther Alt: Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born Supporting Actress: 1. Amy Adams, Vice 2. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk 3. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite 4. Emma Stone, The Favourite 5. Elizabeth Debicki, Widows Alt: Natalie Portman, Vox Lux Original Screenplay: 1. Vice 2. The Favourite 3. Roma 4. A Quiet Place 5. Eighth Grade Alt: First Reformed Adapted Screenplay: 1. BlacKkKlansman 2. If Beale Street Could Talk 3. A Star Is Born 4. Widows 5. Can You Ever Forgive Me? Alt: Black Panther Cinematography: 1. Roma 2. First Man 3. The Favourite 4. If Beale Street Could Talk 5. A Star Is Born Alt: Vice Editing: 1. Vice 2. Roma 3. A Star Is Born 4. The Favourite 5. Mary Poppins Returns Alt: BlacKkKlansman Animated: 1. Incredibles 2 2. Isle of Dogs 3. Ralph Breaks the Internet 4. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse 5. Mirai Alt: Early Man Documentary: 1. Three Identical Strangers 2. RBG 3. Won't You Be My Neighbor? 4. Free Solo 5. Minding the Gap Alt: On Her Shoulders Production Design: 1. The Favourite 2. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald 3. Mary Poppins Returns 4. Roma 5. Black Panther Alt: Mary Queen of Scots Costume Design: 1. The Favourite 2. Mary Queen of Scots 3. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald 4. Black Panther 5. Mary Poppins Returns Alt: Bohemian Rhapsody Makeup: 1. Vice 2. The Favourite 3. Black Panther Alt: Mary Queen of Scots Score: 1. If Beale Street Could Talk 2. Mary Poppins Returns 3. Mary Queen of Scots 4. Black Panther 5. Vice Alt: First Man Song: 1. Shallow, A Star Is Born 2. All the Stars, Black Panther 3. Trip a Little Light Fantastic, Mary Poppins Returns 4. I'll Fight, RBG 5. Sunflower, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse Alt: Here Comes the Change, On the Basis of Sex Visual Effects: 1. Mary Poppins Returns 2. Avengers: Infinity War 3. First Man 4. Black Panther 5. Solo: A Star Wars Story Alt: Bumblebee Sound Editing: 1. A Quiet Place 2. A Star Is Born 3. Black Panther 4. Widows 5. Roma Alt: Avengers: Infinity War Sound Mixing: 1. Mary Poppins Returns 2. A Quiet Place 3. A Star Is Born 4. First Man 5. Bohemian Rhapsody Alt: Roma Nomination counts: 11: The Favourite (Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actress x2, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Production Design, Costume Design, Makeup) 10: A Star Is Born (Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Song, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing) Vice (Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor x2, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Editing, Makeup, Score) 9: Mary Poppins Returns (Picture, Actress, Editing, Production Design, Costume Design, Song, Score, Visual Effects, Sound Mixing) 8: Black Panther (Picture, Supporting Actor, Production Design, Costume Design, Score, Song, Visual Effects, Sound Editing) Roma (Picture, Director, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Production Design, Sound Editing, Foreign Film) 5: If Beale Street Could Talk (Picture, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Score) 4: First Man (Actor, Cinematography, Visual Effects, Sound Mixing) Widows (Picture, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Sound Editing) 3: BlacKkKlansman (Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay) Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Actress, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay) A Quiet Place (Original Screenplay, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing) 2: Bohemian Rhapsody (Actor, Sound Mixing) Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (Production Design, Costume Design) Green Book (Actor, Supporting Actor) Mary Queen of Scots (Costume Design, Score) RBG (Documentary, Song) Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (Animated, Song) Seems about right but I highly doubt Mortensen’s getting a nod after dropping the n-word in an interview. Especially since his movie is about racial prejudice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 2 minutes ago, PANDA said: Seems about right but I highly doubt Mortensen’s getting a nod after dropping the n-word in an interview. Especially since his movie is about racial prejudice. I debated dropping him, but I'll keep him for now. Need to wait for Mary Poppins reviews before jumping all in on Lin. btw, I'm not entertaining the thought of an Eastwood nomination anymore because WB isn't doing any campaigning whatsoever. Even Ready Player One is being campaigned ffs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 sam elliott's more likely to win than not be nominated. i get you're not crazy about that performance but like... c'mon. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 (edited) 2 hours ago, CoolioD1 said: sam elliott's more likely to win than not be nominated. i get you're not crazy about that performance but like... c'mon. Idk. I feel like one of Grant, Ali, or Elliott will miss a nomination. I'll probably put him back in and take Ali (or Jordan) out in a couple weeks tbh Edited November 25, 2018 by WrathOfHan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 (edited) After seeing Grant, he’s definitely more likely to miss than Elliott. Good performance, but I don’t think he’d get a nomination in even an average year given the movie isn’t going to do much beyond two acting noms and maybe a screenplay nod, this is just a weak year for that cat. I do think either him or Ali are going to miss though. I also don’t think Grant’s performance is good enough to win, Elliott would be the better bet if Jordan is to crazy of a pick. Edited November 25, 2018 by PANDA 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Supporting Actor is too much of a mess for any of those three guys to miss. Two other spots are completely up for grabs. At least the precursors are coming up shortly so we'll have an idea of who's a strong contender and who isn't. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 (edited) My SAG predictions: Ensemble: 1. The Favourite 2. Widows 3. A Star Is Born 4. Roma 5. BlacKkKlansman Alt: Black Panther Actor: 1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born 2. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody 3. Ryan Gosling, First Man 4. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book 5. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed Alt: John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman Actress: 1. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born 2. Olivia Colman, The Favourite 3. Glenn Close, The Wife 4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? 5. Viola Davis, Widows Alt: Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots Supporting Actor: 1. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? 2. Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born 3. Mahershala Ali, Green Book 4. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther 5. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman Alt: Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite Supporting Actress: 1. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite 2. Emma Stone, The Favourite 3. Elizabeth Debicki, Widows 4. Claire Foy, First Man 5. Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place Alt: Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots Annapurna hasn't sent out screeners for any of their movies yet, and given that voting closes two weeks from today, there's no chance anyone from Vice or Beale Street gets in unless enough voters give namecheck nominations. FWIW Black Panther only just sent out screeners, but at the same time, everyone's seen the movie. Edited November 25, 2018 by WrathOfHan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 2 hours ago, WrathOfHan said: My SAG predictions: Ensemble: 1. The Favourite 2. Widows 3. A Star Is Born 4. Roma 5. BlacKkKlansman Alt: Black Panther Actor: 1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born 2. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody 3. Ryan Gosling, First Man 4. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book 5. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed Alt: John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman Actress: 1. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born 2. Olivia Colman, The Favourite 3. Glenn Close, The Wife 4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? 5. Viola Davis, Widows Alt: Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots Supporting Actor: 1. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? 2. Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born 3. Mahershala Ali, Green Book 4. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther 5. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman Alt: Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite Supporting Actress: 1. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite 2. Emma Stone, The Favourite 3. Elizabeth Debicki, Widows 4. Claire Foy, First Man 5. Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place Alt: Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots Annapurna hasn't sent out screeners for any of their movies yet, and given that voting closes two weeks from today, there's no chance anyone from Vice or Beale Street gets in unless enough voters give namecheck nominations. FWIW Black Panther only just sent out screeners, but at the same time, everyone's seen the movie. SAG votes way too early I don’t get why they do voting before everything in 2018 has even been seen. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 Christian Bale’s buzz seems like the kind that can get the performance into SAG based on buzz alone despite the late screener issues, which does happen from time to time (I think that was the case with Jessica Chastain in Zero Dark Thirty if I remember correctly). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 13 minutes ago, filmlover said: Christian Bale’s buzz seems like the kind that can get the performance into SAG based on buzz alone despite the late screener issues, which does happen from time to time (I think that was the case with Jessica Chastain in Zero Dark Thirty if I remember correctly). Also, if I’m an actual SAG voter id probably wait to watch Vice (and possibly Poppins if they’ll get an opportunity to watch it) before I went to vote. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eric Quinn Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 7 minutes ago, PANDA said: Also, if I’m an actual SAG voter id probably wait to watch Vice (and possibly Poppins if they’ll get an opportunity to watch it) before I went to vote. The nominations are announced before both Vice and Poppins come out, so that would make it quite difficult. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
titanic2187 Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 Just when you thought this is going to be a harsh year as all the recent past oscar winner are coming back in full force, the hype quickly turn cold after consecutive bomb at the box office, or even didn't get a proper theatrical run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...