Best Picture Predictions - 2018

[CoolioD1]

19 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I still have my same five in Supporting Actor with Jordan winning now instead of Ali. That said, the early rave reviews for Rockwell, Carell, and even Lin Manuel Miranda throw a wrench in that. Once full reviews drop I def might move one of them in.

LMM is being campaigned in lead by disney. honestly even with that category looking kinda weak i'm tempted to even predict him there.

[WrathOfHan]

I’m close to putting Lin into my predicts as well. I can overcome my.... bias towards him.

[The Panda]

Also, going forward I have made some revisions to how I am going to compile the precursors to see if I can have a more accurate system this time.

 

Currently thinking

15% weight to Critics Circles and Minor Awards overall

15% weight to Experts Ranking (based off of AwardsWatch and Goldderby)

15% weight to Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards

55% weight to Guilds and BAFTAs

 

I'll then weight each individual circle I decide to factor into the model.

 

I'll then weight the circles on each individual circle award based off of, how many of their nominees for a field end up with an Academy nomination, and how many of their wins end up with an academy nomination, based off the last 5 years (so they'll essentially be given a full set of 10 potential points, then based off of whatever percentage of nominations or wins that circle matches with will match their points.  So if they match with the Academy 15% of the time, a nomination from that circle yields 1.5 points.  

 

Of course, the cumulative points from the circles will then be multiplied by 0.15, so their points will account for 15% of the total points.

 

I'm hoping this method will end up yielding more accurate results.

[The Panda]

Also, I'm glad to see people are joining me on the MBJ Oscar Train 

[CoolioD1]

1 hour ago, PANDA said:

Also, I'm glad to see people are joining me on the MBJ Oscar Train 

i've had him in my predictions for months but i've honestly been feeling to finally take him out now.

[aabattery]

16 hours ago, CoolioD1 said:

i've had him in my predictions for months but i've honestly been feeling to finally take him out now.

 

That's when you tap him in for a lead actor nom for Creed II. 

 

Belieeeeeve.

[The Panda]

16 hours ago, aabattery said:

 

That's when you tap him in for a lead actor nom for Creed II. 

 

Belieeeeeve.

Not impossible given how weak that field looks.  But I think Lin-Manuel Miranda pulls a nom, barring Poppins doesn’t flop.

 

Id say Jordan is still in a very weak favorable position to win Supporting currently, given that field is practically empty.  He has the showiest and most complete performance of the bunch (somehow), minus Ali and Rockwell who both recently won.

[WrathOfHan]

New full predictions:

 

Spoiler

 

Picture:
 

1. Vice

2. A Star Is Born

3. The Favourite

4. Roma

5. Mary Poppins Returns

6. Black Panther

7. BlacKkKlansman

8. If Beale Street Could Talk

9. Widows

---------------------

10. Green Book

Alt: First Man

 

Director:

 

1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born

2. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite

3. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma

4. Adam McKay, Vice

5. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman

Alt: Rob Marshall, Mary Poppins Returns

 

Actor:

 

1. Christian Bale, Vice

2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born

3. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody

4. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

5. Ryan Gosling, First Man

Alt: Lin Manuel-Miranda, Mary Poppins Returns

 

Actress:

 

1. Olivia Colman, The Favourite

2. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born

3. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns

4. Glenn Close, The Wife

5. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Alt: Viola Davis, Widows

 

Supporting Actor:

 

1. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

2. Mahershala Ali, Green Book

3. Steve Carell, Vice

4. Sam Rockwell, Vice

5. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther

Alt: Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born

 

Supporting Actress:

 

1. Amy Adams, Vice

2. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk

3. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

4. Emma Stone, The Favourite

5. Elizabeth Debicki, Widows

Alt: Natalie Portman, Vox Lux

 

Original Screenplay:

 

1. Vice

2. The Favourite

3. Roma

4. A Quiet Place

5. Eighth Grade

Alt: First Reformed

 

Adapted Screenplay:

 

1. BlacKkKlansman

2. If Beale Street Could Talk

3. A Star Is Born

4. Widows

5. Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Alt: Black Panther

 

Cinematography:

 

1. Roma

2. First Man

3. The Favourite

4. If Beale Street Could Talk

5. A Star Is Born

Alt: Vice

 

Editing:

 

1. Vice

2. Roma

3. A Star Is Born

4. The Favourite

5. Mary Poppins Returns

Alt: BlacKkKlansman

 

Animated:

 

1. Incredibles 2

2. Isle of Dogs

3. Ralph Breaks the Internet

4. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

5. Mirai

Alt: Early Man

 

Documentary:

 

1. Three Identical Strangers

2. RBG

3. Won't You Be My Neighbor?

4. Free Solo

5. Minding the Gap

Alt: On Her Shoulders

 

Production Design:

 

1. The Favourite

2. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald

3. Mary Poppins Returns

4. Roma

5. Black Panther

Alt: Mary Queen of Scots

 

Costume Design:

 

1. The Favourite

2. Mary Queen of Scots

3. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald

4. Black Panther

5. Mary Poppins Returns

Alt: Bohemian Rhapsody

 

Makeup:

 

1. Vice

2. The Favourite

3. Black Panther

Alt: Mary Queen of Scots

 

Score:

 

1. If Beale Street Could Talk

2. Mary Poppins Returns

3. Mary Queen of Scots

4. Black Panther

5. Vice

Alt: First Man

 

Song:

 

1. Shallow, A Star Is Born

2. All the Stars, Black Panther

3. Trip a Little Light Fantastic, Mary Poppins Returns

4. I'll Fight, RBG

5. Sunflower, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Alt: Here Comes the Change, On the Basis of Sex

 

Visual Effects:

 

1. Mary Poppins Returns

2. Avengers: Infinity War

3. First Man

4. Black Panther

5. Solo: A Star Wars Story

Alt: Bumblebee

 

Sound Editing:

 

1. A Quiet Place

2. A Star Is Born

3. Black Panther

4. Widows

5. Roma

Alt: Avengers: Infinity War

 

Sound Mixing:

 

1. Mary Poppins Returns

2. A Quiet Place

3. A Star Is Born

4. First Man

5. Bohemian Rhapsody

Alt: Roma

 

 

Nomination counts:

 

11:

The Favourite (Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actress x2, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Production Design, Costume Design, Makeup)

 

10:

A Star Is Born (Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Song, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing)

Vice (Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor x2, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Editing, Makeup, Score)

 

9:

Mary Poppins Returns (Picture, Actress, Editing, Production Design, Costume Design, Song, Score, Visual Effects, Sound Mixing)

 

8:

Black Panther (Picture, Supporting Actor, Production Design, Costume Design, Score, Song, Visual Effects, Sound Editing)

Roma (Picture, Director, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Production Design, Sound Editing, Foreign Film)

 

5:

If Beale Street Could Talk (Picture, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Score)

 

4:

First Man (Actor, Cinematography, Visual Effects, Sound Mixing)

Widows (Picture, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Sound Editing)

 

3:

BlacKkKlansman (Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay)

Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Actress, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay)

A Quiet Place (Original Screenplay, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing)

 

2:

Bohemian Rhapsody (Actor, Sound Mixing)

Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (Production Design, Costume Design)

Green Book (Actor, Supporting Actor)

Mary Queen of Scots (Costume Design, Score)

RBG (Documentary, Song)

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (Animated, Song)

[The Panda]

7 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

New full predictions:

 

  Hide contents

 

Picture:
 

1. Vice

2. A Star Is Born

3. The Favourite

4. Roma

5. Mary Poppins Returns

6. Black Panther

7. BlacKkKlansman

8. If Beale Street Could Talk

9. Widows

---------------------

10. Green Book

Alt: First Man

 

Director:

 

1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born

2. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite

3. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma

4. Adam McKay, Vice

5. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman

Alt: Rob Marshall, Mary Poppins Returns

 

Actor:

 

1. Christian Bale, Vice

2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born

3. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody

4. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

5. Ryan Gosling, First Man

Alt: Lin Manuel-Miranda, Mary Poppins Returns

 

Actress:

 

1. Olivia Colman, The Favourite

2. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born

3. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns

4. Glenn Close, The Wife

5. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Alt: Viola Davis, Widows

 

Supporting Actor:

 

1. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

2. Mahershala Ali, Green Book

3. Steve Carell, Vice

4. Sam Rockwell, Vice

5. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther

Alt: Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born

 

Supporting Actress:

 

1. Amy Adams, Vice

2. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk

3. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

4. Emma Stone, The Favourite

5. Elizabeth Debicki, Widows

Alt: Natalie Portman, Vox Lux

 

Original Screenplay:

 

1. Vice

2. The Favourite

3. Roma

4. A Quiet Place

5. Eighth Grade

Alt: First Reformed

 

Adapted Screenplay:

 

1. BlacKkKlansman

2. If Beale Street Could Talk

3. A Star Is Born

4. Widows

5. Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Alt: Black Panther

 

Cinematography:

 

1. Roma

2. First Man

3. The Favourite

4. If Beale Street Could Talk

5. A Star Is Born

Alt: Vice

 

Editing:

 

1. Vice

2. Roma

3. A Star Is Born

4. The Favourite

5. Mary Poppins Returns

Alt: BlacKkKlansman

 

Animated:

 

1. Incredibles 2

2. Isle of Dogs

3. Ralph Breaks the Internet

4. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

5. Mirai

Alt: Early Man

 

Documentary:

 

1. Three Identical Strangers

2. RBG

3. Won't You Be My Neighbor?

4. Free Solo

5. Minding the Gap

Alt: On Her Shoulders

 

Production Design:

 

1. The Favourite

2. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald

3. Mary Poppins Returns

4. Roma

5. Black Panther

Alt: Mary Queen of Scots

 

Costume Design:

 

1. The Favourite

2. Mary Queen of Scots

3. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald

4. Black Panther

5. Mary Poppins Returns

Alt: Bohemian Rhapsody

 

Makeup:

 

1. Vice

2. The Favourite

3. Black Panther

Alt: Mary Queen of Scots

 

Score:

 

1. If Beale Street Could Talk

2. Mary Poppins Returns

3. Mary Queen of Scots

4. Black Panther

5. Vice

Alt: First Man

 

Song:

 

1. Shallow, A Star Is Born

2. All the Stars, Black Panther

3. Trip a Little Light Fantastic, Mary Poppins Returns

4. I'll Fight, RBG

5. Sunflower, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Alt: Here Comes the Change, On the Basis of Sex

 

Visual Effects:

 

1. Mary Poppins Returns

2. Avengers: Infinity War

3. First Man

4. Black Panther

5. Solo: A Star Wars Story

Alt: Bumblebee

 

Sound Editing:

 

1. A Quiet Place

2. A Star Is Born

3. Black Panther

4. Widows

5. Roma

Alt: Avengers: Infinity War

 

Sound Mixing:

 

1. Mary Poppins Returns

2. A Quiet Place

3. A Star Is Born

4. First Man

5. Bohemian Rhapsody

Alt: Roma

 

 

Nomination counts:

 

11:

The Favourite (Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actress x2, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Production Design, Costume Design, Makeup)

 

10:

A Star Is Born (Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Song, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing)

Vice (Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor x2, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Editing, Makeup, Score)

 

9:

Mary Poppins Returns (Picture, Actress, Editing, Production Design, Costume Design, Song, Score, Visual Effects, Sound Mixing)

 

8:

Black Panther (Picture, Supporting Actor, Production Design, Costume Design, Score, Song, Visual Effects, Sound Editing)

Roma (Picture, Director, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Production Design, Sound Editing, Foreign Film)

 

5:

If Beale Street Could Talk (Picture, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Score)

 

4:

First Man (Actor, Cinematography, Visual Effects, Sound Mixing)

Widows (Picture, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Sound Editing)

 

3:

BlacKkKlansman (Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay)

Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Actress, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay)

A Quiet Place (Original Screenplay, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing)

 

2:

Bohemian Rhapsody (Actor, Sound Mixing)

Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (Production Design, Costume Design)

Green Book (Actor, Supporting Actor)

Mary Queen of Scots (Costume Design, Score)

RBG (Documentary, Song)

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (Animated, Song)

Seems about right but I highly doubt Mortensen’s getting a nod after dropping the n-word in an interview.  Especially since his movie is about racial prejudice.

[WrathOfHan]

2 minutes ago, PANDA said:

Seems about right but I highly doubt Mortensen’s getting a nod after dropping the n-word in an interview.  Especially since his movie is about racial prejudice.

I debated dropping him, but I'll keep him for now. Need to wait for Mary Poppins reviews before jumping all in on Lin.

 

btw, I'm not entertaining the thought of an Eastwood nomination anymore because WB isn't doing any campaigning whatsoever. Even Ready Player One is being campaigned ffs  

[CoolioD1]

sam elliott's more likely to win than not be nominated. i get you're not crazy about that performance but like... c'mon.

[WrathOfHan]

2 hours ago, CoolioD1 said:

sam elliott's more likely to win than not be nominated. i get you're not crazy about that performance but like... c'mon.

Idk. I feel like one of Grant, Ali, or Elliott will miss a nomination. I'll probably put him back in and take Ali (or Jordan) out in a couple weeks tbh

Edited November 25, 2018 by WrathOfHan

[The Panda]

After seeing Grant, he’s definitely more likely to miss than Elliott.  Good performance, but I don’t think he’d get a nomination in even an average year given the movie isn’t going to do much beyond two acting noms and maybe a screenplay nod, this is just a weak year for that cat.

 

I do think either him or Ali are going to miss though.  I also don’t think Grant’s performance is good enough to win, Elliott would be the better bet if Jordan is to crazy of a pick.

Edited November 25, 2018 by PANDA

[filmlover]

Supporting Actor is too much of a mess for any of those three guys to miss. Two other spots are completely up for grabs. At least the precursors are coming up shortly so we'll have an idea of who's a strong contender and who isn't.

[WrathOfHan]

My SAG predictions:

 

Ensemble:

 

1. The Favourite

2. Widows

3. A Star Is Born

4. Roma

5. BlacKkKlansman

Alt: Black Panther

 

Actor:
 

1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born

2. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody

3. Ryan Gosling, First Man

4. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

5. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed

Alt: John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman

 

Actress:

 

1. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born

2. Olivia Colman, The Favourite

3. Glenn Close, The Wife

4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

5. Viola Davis, Widows

Alt: Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots

 

Supporting Actor:

 

1. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

2. Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born

3. Mahershala Ali, Green Book

4. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther

5. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman

Alt: Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite

 

Supporting Actress:

 

1. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

2. Emma Stone, The Favourite

3. Elizabeth Debicki, Widows

4. Claire Foy, First Man

5. Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place

Alt: Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots

 

Annapurna hasn't sent out screeners for any of their movies yet, and given that voting closes two weeks from today, there's no chance anyone from Vice or Beale Street gets in unless enough voters give namecheck nominations. FWIW Black Panther only just sent out screeners, but at the same time, everyone's seen the movie.

Edited November 25, 2018 by WrathOfHan

[The Panda]

2 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

My SAG predictions:

 

Ensemble:

 

1. The Favourite

2. Widows

3. A Star Is Born

4. Roma

5. BlacKkKlansman

Alt: Black Panther

 

Actor:
 

1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born

2. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody

3. Ryan Gosling, First Man

4. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

5. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed

Alt: John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman

 

Actress:

 

1. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born

2. Olivia Colman, The Favourite

3. Glenn Close, The Wife

4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

5. Viola Davis, Widows

Alt: Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots

 

Supporting Actor:

 

1. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

2. Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born

3. Mahershala Ali, Green Book

4. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther

5. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman

Alt: Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite

 

Supporting Actress:

 

1. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

2. Emma Stone, The Favourite

3. Elizabeth Debicki, Widows

4. Claire Foy, First Man

5. Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place

Alt: Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots

 

Annapurna hasn't sent out screeners for any of their movies yet, and given that voting closes two weeks from today, there's no chance anyone from Vice or Beale Street gets in unless enough voters give namecheck nominations. FWIW Black Panther only just sent out screeners, but at the same time, everyone's seen the movie.

SAG votes way too early

 

I don’t get why they do voting before everything in 2018 has even been seen.

[filmlover]

Christian Bale’s buzz seems like the kind that can get the performance into SAG based on buzz alone despite the late screener issues, which does happen from time to time (I think that was the case with Jessica Chastain in Zero Dark Thirty if I remember correctly).

[The Panda]

13 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Christian Bale’s buzz seems like the kind that can get the performance into SAG based on buzz alone despite the late screener issues, which does happen from time to time (I think that was the case with Jessica Chastain in Zero Dark Thirty if I remember correctly).

Also, if I’m an actual SAG voter id probably wait to watch Vice (and possibly Poppins if they’ll get an opportunity to watch it) before I went to vote.

[Eric Loves Rey]

7 minutes ago, PANDA said:

Also, if I’m an actual SAG voter id probably wait to watch Vice (and possibly Poppins if they’ll get an opportunity to watch it) before I went to vote.

The nominations are announced before both Vice and Poppins come out, so that would make it quite difficult.

[titanic2187]

Just when you thought this is going to be a harsh year as all the recent past oscar winner are coming back in full force, the hype quickly turn cold after consecutive bomb at the box office, or even didn't get a proper theatrical run.