Best Picture Predictions - 2018

[WrathOfHan]

Green Book just got punched with two things against it:

 

1. The box office is very light, and the film won’t even hit 25M before Oscar noms are out

2. The movie is super inaccurate according to Don Shirley’s family

 

Obviously weak box office and historical inaccuracies don’t stop movies all the time, but this doesn’t feel like a safe nominee anymore. Honestly, everything that isn’t A Star Is Born, Vice, The Favourite, or Roma is vulnerable. 

[Eric Loves Rey]

Green Book definitely seems like a snub, apart from acting noms. The film's getting weaker and weaker reviews, it's box office is looking weak, and Don Shirley's family is already calling out the movie and its inaccuracies and racism.

 

EDIT: Guess Han already wrote what I said.

 

I guess something I'll add is that Black Panther and BlacKkKlansman are also movies that tackle race and are more commercially and critically successful. Also shows the new voters are really changing things around. That's a good thing.

Edited November 22, 2018 by CoolEric258

[WrathOfHan]

19 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Green Book definitely seems like a snub, apart from acting noms. The film's getting weaker and weaker reviews, it's box office is looking weak, and Don Shirley's family is already calling out the movie and its inaccuracies and racism.

 

EDIT: Guess Han already wrote what I said.

 

I guess something I'll add is that Black Panther and BlacKkKlansman are also movies that tackle race and are more commercially and critically successful. Also shows the new voters are really changing things around. That's a good thing.

Hell, Beale Street may outgross Green Book. Universal kind of fucked this one up big time.

[Eric Loves Rey]

Of course on the bright side, it only makes the path for a Poppins BP nom clearer

[filmlover]

Yeah, Green Book feels like it's dying before our eyes. From Movie Hero to Movie Zero within just two months. Won't be surprised if it's shut out completely at this point (which frees the Actor categories up even more than they already are).

[Eric Loves Rey]

15 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Yeah, Green Book feels like it's dying before our eyes. From Movie Hero to Movie Zero within just two months. Won't be surprised if it's shut out completely at this point (which frees the Actor categories up even more than they already are).

Ehh, I can see Ali finding his way in. From what I've seen, even people critical of the movie acknowledge him as a standout. And again, ultra-barren category. As for Mortensen...well, I'm not gonna say he's dunzo, but Hawke, Malek, and Gosling can breathe a little easy.

Edited November 22, 2018 by CoolEric258

[filmlover]

50 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Ehh, I can see Ali finding his way in. From what I've seen, even people critical of the movie acknowledge him as a standout. And again, ultra-barren category. As for Mortensen...well, I'm not gonna say he's dunzo, but Hawke, Malek, and Gosling can breathe a little easy.

Between the N word controversy and now these recent events, he's certainly got a lot to overcome now.

[That One Girl]

1. A Star is Born
2. Roma
3. If Beale Street Could Talk
4. The Favourite
5. Vice
6. Can You Ever Forgive Me?
7. Black Panther
8. First Man
9. Widows
10. BlacKkKlansman

[The Panda]

Alright, my final pre-precursor predictions!  Going wild on my takes with this one!

 

Best Picture (9 nominations)

BlacKkKlansman

Black Panther

Crazy Rich Asians

The Favourite (In Contention)

If Beale Street Could Talk

Mary Poppins Returns

Roma (In Contention)

A Star is Born (In Contention)

Vice (In Contention)

Alts: First Man, Widows, A Quiet Place, First Reformed

Dark Horse: Eighth Grade, Leave No Trace, Mary, Queen of Scots, The Hate U Give, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Dunzo: Green Book, Boy Erased, Beautiful Boy, The Mule

 

Best Director

Ryan Coogler, Black Panther

Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born

Alfonso Cuaron, Roma

Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite

Adam McKay, Vice (In Contention)

Alts: Barry Jenkins, Spike Lee, Rob Marshall

Dark Horse: Paul Schrader, Debra Granik, Marielle Heller

Dunzo: Steve McQueen, Damien Chazelle, Peter Farrelly

 

Best Actress

Yalitza Aparicio, Roma

Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (In Contention)

Olivia Colman, The Favourite (In Contention)

Viola Davis, Widows

Lady Gaga, A Star is Born

Alts: Glenn Close, Melissa McCarthy

Dark Horses: Saoirse Ronan, Kiki Layne, Elsie Fisher, Toni Colette, Nicole Kidman, Rosamund Pike, Amandla Stenberg, 

Dunzo: Nobody!

 

Best Actor

Christian Bale, Vice

Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born (In Contention)

Ethan Hawke, First Reformed

Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody

Lin-Manuel Miranda, Mary Poppins Returns

Alts: Ryan Gosling, Willem Dafoe

Dark Horse: John David Washington, Ben Foster, Robert Redford

Dunzo: Viggo Mortensen, Steve Carell, Clint Eastwood, Lucas Hedges

 

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams, Vice

Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (In Contention)

Emma Stone, The Favourite

Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians

Alts: Marina de Tavira, Claire Foy, Nicole Kidman

Dark Horse: Elizabeth Debicki, Natalie Portman, Margot Robbie, Thomas Harcourt McKenzie

Dunzo: Linda Cardellini

 

Best Supporting Actor

Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman

Sam Elliott, A Star is Born

Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (In Contention)

Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther

Sam Rockwell, Vice (In Contention)

Alts: Daniel Kaluuya, Mahershala Ali, Timothee Chalamet

Dark Horse: Steve Carell, Jonathan Pryce

Dunzo: Russell Crowe

 

Best Adapted Screenplay

BlacKkKlansman (In Contention)

Black Panther

Crazy Rich Asians

If Beale Street Could Talk

A Star is Born

Alts: Mary Poppins Returns, Widows, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Dark Horse: Leave No Trace, The Death of Stalin, The Hate U Give

Dunzo: First Man, Boy Erased, Beautiful Boy

 

Best Original Screenplay

Eighth Grade

The Favourite (In Contention)

First Reformed

Roma (In Contention)

Vice

Alts: A Quiet Place, Green Book

Dark Horse: Sorry to Bother You, At Eternity's Gate, Cold War

Dunzo: The Mule

 

Best Cinematography

Cold War

The Favourite

If Beale Street Could Talk

Roma

A Star is Born

Alts: First Man, Black Panther

Dark Horse: The Rider, At Eternity's Gate, Mary Poppins Returns

Dunzo: Widows, Green Book

 

Best Costume Design

Black Panther (In Contention)

Crazy Rich Asians

The Favourite (In Contention)

Mary Poppins Returns

Mary, Queen of Scots

Alts: Fantastic Beasts 2, A Star is Born

Dark Horse: Colette, Bohemian Rhapsody

Dunzo: Nutcracker and the Four Realms

 

Best Editing

Black Panther

The Favourite

Roma

A Star is Born (In Contention)

Vice

Alts: BlacKkKlansman, First Man, If Beale Street Could Talk

Dark Horses: Mary Poppins Returns, Mission: Impossible - Fallout

Dunzo: Widows, Green Book

 

Best Production Design

Black Panther

Crazy Rich Asians

The Favourite (In Contention)

Mary Poppins Returns (In Contention)

Roma

Alts: First Man, A Star is Born, Mary, Queen of Scots

Dark Horse: Isle of Dogs

Dunzo: Green Book, Fantastic Beasts 2, Nutcracker

 

Best Original Score

BlacKkKlansman

Black Panther

If Beale Street Could Talk (In Contention)

First Man

Mary Poppins Returns

Alts: Isle of Dogs, Widows, Incredibles 2, Vice

Dark Horse: Avengers: Infinity War, The Sister Brothers

Dunzo: Green Book, Fantastic Beasts 2

 

Best Original Song

"All the Stars", Black Panther

"Ashes", Deadpool 2

"The Place Where Lost Things Go", Mary Poppins Returns (In Contention)

"Trip a Little Light Fantastic", Mary Poppins Returns (In Contention)

"The Shallow", A Star is Born

Alts: "Gravity" Free Solo, "I'll Fight" RBG

Dark Horses: "Revelation" Boy Erased, "Girl in the Movies" Dumplin

Dunzo: Everything else from ASIB

 

Best Sound Editing

Black Panther

First Man

A Quiet Place

Roma

A Star is Born (In Contention)

Alts: Mary Poppins Returns, Bohemian Rhapsody

Dark Horse:  Avengers: Infinity War, Mission: Impossible - Fallout

Dunzo: Idk

 

Best Sound Mixing

Black Panther

Mary Poppins Returns

A Quiet Place (In Contention)

Roma

A Star is Born

Alts: First Man, Bohemian Rhapsody

Dark Horse: Avengers: Infinity War, Mission: Impossible - Fallout

 

Best Visual Effects

Avengers: Infinity War

Black Panther

Mary Poppins Returns

Mission: Impossible - Fallout

First Man

Alts: Ready Player One, Annihilation, Isle of Dogs

Dark Horse: Solo, Aquaman, Ant-Man and the Wasp, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom

Dunzo: Fantastic Beasts 2

 

Animated Feature

Incredibles 2

Isle of Dogs

Mirai

Ralph Breaks the Internet: Wreck-It Ralph 2

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Alts: Early Man

Dark Horse: The Grinch, Smallfoot

Dunzo: Idk

 

Foreign Feature

Roma

 

Count

Roma - 4 Wins,  10 Noms

Black Panther - 3 Wins, 12 Noms

A Star is Born - 3 Wins. 10 Noms

Vice - 3 Wins, 6 Noms

Mary Poppins Returns - 2 Wins, 10 Noms

If Beale Street Could Talk - 1 Win, 5 Noms

A Quiet Place - 1 Win, 2 Noms

Avengers: Infinity War - 1 Win, 1 Nom

Isle of Dogs - 1 Win, 1 Nom

The Favourite - 10 Noms

Crazy Rich Asians - 5 Noms

BlacKkKlansman - 4 Noms

First Man - 3 Noms

First Reformed - 2 Noms

Deadpool 2 - 1 Nom

Incredibles 2 - 1 Nom

Eighth Grade - 1 Nom

Bohemian Rhapsody - 1 Nom

Cold War - 1 Nom

Can You Ever Forgive Me? - 1 Nom

Mary, Queen of Scots - 1 Nom

Mission: Impossible - Fallout - 1 Nom

Widows - 1 Nom

Ralph Breaks the Internet: Wreck-It Ralph 2 - 1 Nom

Mirai - 1 Nom

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse - 1 Nom

[WrathOfHan]

I still think Ali will win supporting actor because that category is empty af in terms of potential winners. If CYEFM makes a strong resurgence in buzz, I’d go with Grant.

[filmlover]

8 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

I still think Ali will win supporting actor because that category is empty af in terms of potential winners. If CYEFM makes a strong resurgence in buzz, I’d go with Grant.

I highly doubt Ali is winning a second Oscar so soon for a film that's practically imploding (especially when he might end up the film's sole nomination). Grant's performance in CYEFM makes total sense as a winner even if the film gets just 3-4 nominations. His last scene could seal it for a lot of people.

 

Or who knows, maybe Elliott does win this after all. ASIB taking home two acting awards seems like a plausible scenario to begin with.

Edited November 22, 2018 by filmlover

[WrathOfHan]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

I highly doubt Ali is winning a second Oscar so soon for a film that's practically imploding (especially when he might end up the film's sole nomination). Grant's performance in CYEFM makes total sense as a winner even if the film gets just 3-4 nominations. His last scene could seal it for a lot of people.

 

Or who knows, maybe Elliott does win this after all. ASIB taking home two acting awards seems like a plausible scenario to begin with.

Elliott winning would be super conflicting. On the one hand, it’s Sam Elliott winning an Oscar, but he would probably be the weakest non-Leto winner of the category this decade. It’s a character that doesn’t have much meat to it.

[filmlover]

3 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Elliott winning would be super conflicting. On the one hand, it’s Sam Elliott winning an Oscar, but he would probably be the weakest non-Leto winner of the category this decade. It’s a character that doesn’t have much meat to it.

Ali won two years ago for a performance that wasn't traditionally "baity" at all in which he left the movie after the first third. If they like the performance and the actor, they'll go for it.

[WrathOfHan]

8 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Ali won two years ago for a performance that wasn't traditionally "baity" at all in which he left the movie after the first third. If they like the performance and the actor, they'll go for it.

Yeah, but Ali’s father figure in Moonlight was more interesting than Elliott’s father figure in ASIB. All Sam Elliott’s character does is tell Bradley Cooper to watch out in most of his scenes and gives a good monologue. He’s just not that interesting of a character! 

[The Panda]

3 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

I still think Ali will win supporting actor because that category is empty af in terms of potential winners. If CYEFM makes a strong resurgence in buzz, I’d go with Grant.

Given how badly Green Book is imploding idek if Ali is getting the nomination.

 

Supporting Actor is completely empty,  I’d say Rockwell would be the front runner but he just won.  Grant’s movie has no steam.  Adam Driver’s performance is to subtle to win.

 

I figure just go with the WTF win and say MBJ wins it.

[WrathOfHan]

7 minutes ago, PANDA said:

Given how badly Green Book is imploding idek if Ali is getting the nomination.

 

Supporting Actor is completely empty,  I’d say Rockwell would be the front runner but he just won.  Grant’s movie has no steam.  Adam Driver’s performance is to subtle to win.

 

I figure just go with the WTF win and say MBJ wins it.

Kind of at that point as well tbh, and I don't think he's ever been in my predictions (or if he was it was super early on). I can see Carell winning too even though his performance isn't as flashy as Rockwell; the industry loves him. However, I don't think Vice or ASIB can will all three acting categories they're nominated for (and Carell isn't even safe for a nomination)

Edited November 22, 2018 by WrathOfHan

[The Panda]

Just now, WrathOfHan said:

Kind of at that point as well tbh, and I don't think he's ever been in my predictions (or if he was it was super early on). I can see Carell winning too even though his performance isn't as flashy as Rockwell; the industry loves him.

I do think if Carell gets a nom he’s a default front runner to win, im

just not sure he’d get a nom over Rockwell, and I’m not sure AMPAS will go dual noms.

 

I’m starting to think this year is AMPAS goes populist.  The small BO high-brow stuff just doesn’t seem to be sticking beyond Roma, The Favourite, Vice (which this might actually turn into a hit! and kind of Beale Street.

 

Meanwhile, A Star is Born, Crazy Rich Asians, Mary Poppins Returns, Black Panther and A Quiet Place are all big hits with great reviews (okay MPR isn’t confirmed yet, but it’s all but looking like it), and not just “great for a blockbuster” type of reviews.

 

Remember in 2016 how AMPAS worked overboard to counter the #OscarsSoWhite controversy?  I think the voters might be feeling heat to nominate some populist stuff, and they’ve got a lot of options for them this year (meanwhile few options for ‘Oscar bait’).

 

I also think whether they go populist or not it’ll be the lowest rated awards show because the declining trend isn’t about what they’re nominating.  It’s that cable TV is declining, there’s no streaming option and people don’t want to sit through 3 hour awards shows.

[titanic2187]

The consecutive bomb of award-friendly bode well for Roma, a netflix's spanish film thanks to lighter competition

 

I hope to see another non-english language to enter best picture race since Amour!

 

While Oscar past winner did delivered well critically like first man and widows and green book, but they failed at box office. Ironically, all three films are studio film....

[Webslinger]

2 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

Yeah, but Ali’s father figure in Moonlight was more interesting than Elliott’s father figure in ASIB. All Sam Elliott’s character does is tell Bradley Cooper to watch out in most of his scenes and gives a good monologue. He’s just not that interesting of a character! 

To be fair, he nails every scene he's in and his performance is remarkably lived-in and nuanced despite having relatively little to work with; it feels like there's a whole complex history between him and Cooper's character that we only catch in glimpses. He's not in much of the movie, but his contributions linger; that could be enough to put him over the top for a win if either the film takes off as a Best Picture frontrunner or the industry decides it's time to throw him an underrated career honors Oscar.

Edited November 22, 2018 by Webslinger

[Cmasterclay]

I still have my same five in Supporting Actor with Jordan winning now instead of Ali. That said, the early rave reviews for Rockwell, Carell, and even Lin Manuel Miranda throw a wrench in that. Once full reviews drop I def might move one of them in.