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Best Picture Predictions - 2018

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13 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

i was skimming the Oscar eligibility rules since someone in the lion king thread asked about them and apparently a Best Original Musical category exists but it has to be activated by the music branch executive if they feel like the year justifies the category. obviously not this year but since the genre seems to be making a comeback i wonder if we'll ever see that again.

 

I really hope so...

 

If they allow animations to be nominated in the category, I bet they'll have an easier time finding the year to launch it. They would definitely do a good thing by launching it again because it'd encourage more original musicals to get made!

 

Even A24's getting into original musicals (Waves, directed by Trey Edward Schults starring Lucas Hedges) so hopefully the day is coming soon!

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predicts in every category just before december and the ball really starts rolling

 

Spoiler

Picture:

1. A Star is Born

2. The Favourite

3. Roma

4. If Beale Street Could Talk

5. Blackkklansman

6. Mary Poppins Returns

7. Vice

8. Green Book

9. Black Panther

10. First Man

 

Director:

1. Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born

2. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma

3. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite

4. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk

5. Spike Lee, Blackkklansman

 

Actor:

1. Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born

2. Christian Bale, Vice

3. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody

4. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

5. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed

 

Actress:

1. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns

2. Olivia Colman, The Favourite

3. Lady Gaga, A Star is Born

4. Glenn Close, The Wife

5. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma

 

Supp. Actor

1. Sam Elliott, A Star is Born

2. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

3. Mahershala Ali, Green Book

4. Adam Driver, Blackkklansman

5. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther

 

Supp. Actress

1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk

2. Amy Adams, Vice

3. Emma Stone, The Favourite

4. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

5. Claire Foy, First Man

 

O. Screenplay

1. The Favourite

2. Roma

3. First Reformed

4. Vice

5. Eighth Grade

 

A. Screenplay

1. Blackkklansman

2. If Beale Street Could Talk

3. A Star is Born

4. Can You Ever Forgive Me?

5. Crazy Rich Asians

 

Animated:

1. Isle of Dogs

2. Incredibles 2

3. Ralph Breaks The Internet

4. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

5. Early Man

 

Foreign:

1. Roma

2. Shoplifters

3. Capernaum

4. Cold War

5. Burning

 

Documentary

1. Won't You Be My Neighbor?

2. Three Identical Strangers

3. Free Solo

4. RBG

5. Minding the Gap

 

Cinematography

1. Roma

2. If Beale Street Could Talk

3. The Favourite

4. A Star is Born

5. First Man

 

Costumes:

1. Mary Poppins Returns

2. The Favourite

3. Black Panther

4. Mary Queen of Scots

5. Crimes of Grindelwald

 

Editing:

1. First Man

2. Roma

3. A Star is Born

4. Black Panther

5. Mary Poppins Returns

 

Make-Up:

1. Vice

2. Black Panther

3. Mary Queen of Scots

 

Original Score:

1. If Beale Street Could Talk

2. Mary Poppins Returns

3. First Man

4. Black Panther

5. Blackkklansman

 

Original Song

1. A Star is Born

2. Mary Poppins Returns

3. Black Panther

4. Mary Poppins Returns

5. Vox Lux

 

Production Design:

1. Mary Poppins Returns

2. Black Panther

3. The Favourite

4. Crimes of Grindelwal

5. Roma

 

Sound Editing:

1. First Man

2. Incredibles 2

3. A Quiet Place

4. Mission: Impossible - Fallout

5. Mary Poppins Returns

 

Sound Mixing:

1. A Star is Born

2. Mary Poppins Returns

3. First Man

4. A Quiet Place

5. Mission: Impossible - Fallout

 

Visual Effects:

1. Avengers Infinity War

2. Mary Poppins Returns

3. First Man

4. Aquaman

5. Ready Player One

 

Edited by CoolioD1
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Okay. I tried to embed the tweet, but I got frustrated and gave up. Here's the message text, from awards enthusiast Will Mavity:

 

"Spoke to a representative from The Satellite Awards. They should expect tonight's nominations between 10 PM and Midnight."

 

(Edit: the organization is based in Los Angeles so it's a high likely hood that they are talking in terms of Pacific Standard Time.)

 

He also tweeted:

 

"The Academy has confirmed that the preliminary shortlist of Visual Effects contenders will be released next week (my guess would be Monday)."

Edited by Slambros
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1 hour ago, filmlover said:

I’ll be surprised if McCarthy misses at this point even if her film has unfortunately flown under the radar. It’s the kind of playing against type performance they like to recognize.

If the film had more buzz and/or bigger returns, she’d be in contention for the win. It’s an amazing performance (also way better than Gaga who was very good). If she won, she’d be the second best winner of the decade behind Portman imo

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IPA snubs Vice, just like NBR.  Gosling was also snubbed despite First Man getting a drama nom.

 

Satellite Award Nominations

 

Motion Picture, Drama (Major)
Black Panther Walt Disney
First Man Universal
Hereditary A24
If Beale Street Could Talk Annapurna Pictures
Mary Queen of Scots Focus Features
Widows Twentieth Century Fox

 

 

Motion Picture (Independent)
BlakKklansman Focus Features
Eighth Grade A24
First Reformed A24
Leave No Trace Bleecker Street Media
Private Life Netflix
Private War Aviron Pictures

 

Director
Bradley Cooper A Star is Born
Alfonso Cuaron Roma
Peter Farrelly Green Book
Barry Jenkins If Beale Street Could Talk
Yorgos Lanthimos The Favourite
Spike Lee BlackKklansman

 

 

Screenplay, Original
Bo Burnham Eighth Grade
Alfonso Cuaron Roma
Deborah Davis & Tony McNamara The Favourite
John Krasinski, Scott Beck, Bryan Woods A Quiet Place
Paul Schrader First Reformed
Nick Vallelonga, Brian Hayes Currie & Peter Farrelly Green Book

 

 

Screenplay, Adapted
Bradley Cooper, Eric Roth A Star is Born
Debra Granik, Anne Rosellini Leave No Trace
Nicole Holofcener, Jeff Whitty Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Barry Jenkins If Beale Street Could Talk
Armando Iannucci, David Schneider, Ian Martin, Peter Fellows The Death of Stalin
Spike Lee, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Wilmott, Charlie Wachtel BlackKklansman
Motion Picture, Comedy or Musical (Major, Independent or International)
Crazy Richard Asians Warner Bros
The Favourite Fox Searchlight Pictures
Green Book Universal Pictures
Mary Poppins Returns Walt Disney
Nico, 1988 Magnolia Pictures
A Star is Born

 

Actress in a Motion Picture, Drama (Major, Independent or International)
Yalitza Aparicio Roma
Glenn Close The Wife
Viola Davis Widows
Nicole Kidman Destroyer
Melissa McCarthy Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Rosamund Pike Private War

 

Actor in a Motion Picture, Drama (Major, Independent or International)
Willem Dafoe At Eternity’s Gate
Ben Foster Leave No Trace
Ryan Gosling First Man
Ethan Hawke First Reformed
Lucas Hedges Boy Erased
Robert Redford The Old Man & the Gun

 

Actress in Motion Picture, Comedy or Musical  (Major, Independent or International)
Emily Blunt Mary Poppins Returns
Olivia Colman The Favourite
Trine Dyrholm Nico, 1988
Elsie Fisher Eighth Grade
Lady Gaga A Star is Born
Constance Wu Crazy Rich Asians
Actor in Motion Picture, Comedy or Musical (Major, Independent or International)
Bradley Cooper A Star is Born
Rami Malek Bohemian Rhapsody
Lin-Manuel Miranda Mary Poppins Returns
Viggo Mortensen Green Book
Nick Robinson Love, Simon
John David Washington BlackKklansman

 

Actress in a Supporting Role (Major, Independent, Comedy & Musical or International)
Claire Foy First Man
Nicole Kidman Boy Erased
Regina King If Beale Street Could Talk
Margot Robbie Mary Queen of Scots
Emma Stone The Favourite
Rachel Weisz The Favourite

 

Actor in a Supporting Role (Major, Independent, Comedy & Musical or International)
Mahershala Ali Green Book
Timothée Chalamet Beautiful Boy
Russell Crowe Boy Erased
Adam Driver BlackKklansman
Sam Elliott A Star is Born
Richard Grant Can You Ever Forgive Me?

 

Motion Picture, International Film
Israel The Cakemaker
Poland Cold War
Denmark The Guilty
United Kingdom I Am Not A Witch
Mexico Roma
Japan Shoplifters

 

 

Motion Picture, Animated or Mixed Media
Incredibles 2 Pixar, Walt Disney
Isle of Dogs Fox Searchlight Pictures
Liz and the Blue Bird Eleven Arts
Mirai GKIDS Films
Ralph Breaks the Internet Walt Disney
Ruben Brandt, Collector Sony Pictures Classics

 

Original Score
Thomas Ades Colette
Terence Blanchard BlackKklansman
Nicholas Britell If Beale Street Could Talk
Alexandre Desplat The Sisters Brothers
Justin Hurwitz First Man
Hans Zimmer Widows
Original Song
“All The Stars” Black Panther
“Can You Imagine That?” Mary Poppins Returns
“Requiem for a Private War” Private War
“Revelation” Boy Erased
“The Shallow” A Star is Born
“Strawberries & Cigarettes” Love, Simon
Cinematography
Alfonso Cuaron Roma
James Laxton If Beale Street Could Talk
Matthew Libatique A Star is Born
Robbie Ryan The Favourite
Rachel Morrison Black Panther
Lukasz Zal Cold War

 

 

Visual Effects
Avengers: Infinity War Walt Disney
Black Panther Walt Disney
Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald Warner Bros
Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom Universal
Rampage Warner Bros
Ready Player One Warner Bros

 

 

Film Editing
Barry Alexander Brown BlackKklansman
Jay Cassidy A Star is Born
Tom Cross First Man
Alfonso Cuaron Roma
Joi McMillon, Nat Sanders If Beale Street Could Talk
Joe Walker Widows

 

 

Sound (Editing and Mixing)
Black Panther Walt Disney
First Man Universal
Mary Poppins Returns Walt Disney
A Quiet Place Paramount
Roma Netflix
A Star is Born Warner Bros

 

 

Art Direction and Production Design
Black Panther Walt Disney
Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald Warner Bros
The Favourite Fox Searchlight
First Man Universal
Mary Poppins Returns Walt Disney
Roma Magnolia Pictures

 

 

Costume Design
Colleen Atwood Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald
Erin Benach A Star is Born
Alexandra Byrne Mary Queen of Scots
Ruth E. Carter Black Panther
Andrea Flesch Colette
Sandy Powell The Favourite
Motion Picture, Documentary
Crime + Punishment Hulu
Free Solo National Geographic
Minding the Gap Hulu
RBG Magnolia Pictures
Three Identical Strangers Focus Features
Won’t You Be My Neighbor Focus Features

 

SPECIAL ACHIEVEMENT AWARD RECIPIENTS
Back to Top
Auteur Award Ryan Coogler
Best First Feature Rupert Everett, Happy Prince
Ensemble: Motion Picture The Favourite
Ensemble: Television The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story
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19 minutes ago, PANDA said:

IPA snubs Vice, just like NBR.  Gosling was also snubbed despite First Man getting a drama nom.

 

 

 

 

Actor in a Motion Picture, Drama (Major, Independent or International)
Willem Dafoe At Eternity’s Gate
Ben Foster Leave No Trace
Ryan Gosling First Man
Ethan Hawke First Reformed
Lucas Hedges Boy Erased
Robert Redford

The Old Man & the Gun

 

1*UDUtGU1NqByb_yZmnhNTPw.png

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Toni Colette was snubbed in spite of how easy it should've been to get this nomination, while the film itself was a best picture nominee, overtaking many other potential candidates. Maybe it's the competitive nature of the Actress categories this year, but I find that very strange.

 

This awards body also bothered to give Colette a few technical nominations without giving Keira Knightley an actress nomination, too.

 

And Vice wasn't the only movie that was completely snubbed; The Mule was snubbed from all categories, and Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse wasn't able to get an animated film nomination. You'd think that'd be because all those films haven't been seen by the majority of people at this time, that they were late to the game in terms of being seen in festivals. But that also applies to Mary Poppins Returns and Mary, Queen of Scots, films that were both able to get multiple nominations. Maybe it's still true that the majority of the voting body wasn't able to see the aforementioned three films... but these are still nominations that those films could've used.

 

This could've been a big moment for Can You Ever Forgive Me?'s progression towards a potential Best Picture nomination; the film has universal acclaim, that much is for sure. So it does feel a little strange that both Hereditary and Mary, Queen of Scots were able to overtake it in that 'major film' category.

 

And the screenplay nominations... I'm sure Paramount has realized by now that an Original Screenplay nomination for A Quiet Place is the only major category they even have the ability to reasonably pursue, so I'm sure they'll continue to campaign extremely hard, and I'm sure we'll continue to see A Quiet Place nominated in the category. First Reformed and Eighth Grade have definitely found their footing in the race... I'm sure the offices of A24 are buzzing, saying to themselves, "now we know it's worth the campaign money". Plus, in Adapted Screenplay, Leave No Trace and The Death of Stalin edging out other potential nominees such as Black Panther, Boy Erased, First Man, and Widows? That's nothing short of exciting.

 

I bet there's two film crews that are especially ecstatic after these nominations, regardless of the overall Oscar race: that of A Private War and that of Nico, 1988. Those two films are definitely on the outskirts, and I bet it feels really good to have a film like that quietly sneak into a list of buzzier films. To put this in perspective, something like Sorry To Bother You could've gotten in over A Private War, and something like Game Night or Blockers could've easily gotten in over Nico, 1988.

 

Lastly, those animation nominees. Take those six films. Throw in Spider-Man. Regard Early Man and Smallfoot as on the outside looking in. And boom. There's this year's animation race. The Pixar sequel, the Walt Disney sequel, the Wes Anderson film, the Lord & Miller film, the Mamoru Hosoda film, the eccentric European film that Sony Pictures Classics is bursting into the scene with, and an anime film that, for all intents and purposes, finds itself in the same position A Silent Voice was in last year. This all combines into what's the most open and exciting Animated Feature race since 2011 when Rango won.

 

All in all, this year's overall awards race is continuing to get more and more exciting with each passing day. That much is for certain.

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1 hour ago, MrPink said:

 

Actor in a Motion Picture, Drama (Major, Independent or International)
Willem Dafoe At Eternity’s Gate
Ben Foster Leave No Trace
Ryan Gosling First Man
Ethan Hawke First Reformed
Lucas Hedges Boy Erased
Robert Redford

The Old Man & the Gun

 

1*UDUtGU1NqByb_yZmnhNTPw.png

Looked over it oops

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NYFCC Roma wins it big

 

Best Film: Roma (Netflix)

Best Director: Alfonso Cuarón, Roma (Netflix)

Best First Film: Eighth Grade, dir. Bo Burnham (A24)

Best Actor: Ethan Hawke for First Reformed(A24)

Best Actress: Best Actress, Regina Hall, Support the Girls (Magnolia Pictures)

Best Supporting Actor: Richard E. Grant for Fox Searchlight’s Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Fox Searchlight)

Best Supporting Actress: Regina King for If Beale Street Could Talk (Annapurna)

Best Screenplay: First Reformed (Paul Schrader) (A24)

Best Cinematography: Roma, Alfonso Cuaron (Netflix)

Best Foreign Language Film: Cold War (dir. Pawel Pawlikowski) (Amazon)

Best Documentary: Minding the Gap (dir. Bing Liu)

Best Animated Film: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (dirs. Bob Persichetti, Peter Ramsey, Rodney Rothman)

Special Awards: David Schwartz, Chief Film Curator at Museum of the Moving Image (who will be stepping down after 33 years) and Kino Classics Box Set “Pioneers: First Women Filmmakers.

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Updated predict list of the main cats after the first round of precursors (not doing my confidence chance yet because still relatively too unconfident, however I will do rankings, movies that I see relatively equal chances will tie in ranking)

 

Best Picture

1. Roma

2. Green Book

3. A Star is Born

Black Panther

If Beale Street Could Talk

Mary Poppins Returns

The Favourite

8. First Reformed

Eighth Grade

BlacKkKlansman

Borderline: Vice, First Man, Widows, Crazy Rich Asians, Vice, Mary, Queen of Scots, A Quiet Place

 

Best Director

1. Alfonso Cuaron

2. Bradley Cooper

3. Yorgos Lanthimos

Barry Jenkins

5. Peter Farrelly

Borderline: Ryan Coogler, Spike Lee, Paul Schrader

 

Actress

1. Lady Gaga

2. Olivia Colman

3. Yalitza Aparicio

Emily Blunt

5. Viola Davis

Borderline: Elsie Fisher, Regina Hall, Glenn Close, Nicole Kidman, Melissa McCarthy

 

Actor

1. Ethan Hawke

2. Bradley Cooper

3. Viggo Mortensen

4. Christian Bale

Lin-Manuel Miranda

Bordernline: Rami Malek, Willem Dafoe, John David Washington, Robert Redford

 

Supporting Actress

1. Regina King

2. Emma Stone

3. Rachel Weisz

4. Margot Robbie

5. Amy Adams

Borderline: Claire Foy, 

 

Supporting Actor

1. Richard E. Grant

2. Sam Elliott

3. Mahershala Ali

4. Adam Driver

5. Michael B. Jordan

Borderline: Sam Rockwell, Stevel Carrell, Timothee Chalamet, Russell Crowe

 

Adapted Screenplay

1. If Beale Street Could Talk

2. A Star is Born

3. BlacKkKlansman

4. Can You Ever Forgive Me?

5. Black Panther

Borderline: Crazy Rich Asians, The Death of Stalin, Leave No Trace, Widows

 

Original Screenplay

1. First Reformed

2. Roma

3. The Favourite

4. Green Book

5. Eighth Grade

Borderline: Vice, A Quiet Place, Sorry to Bother You

 

Animated Feature

1. Incredibles 2

2. Spider-Man: Into the Spiderverse

3. Isle of Dogs

Mirai

Ralph Breaks the Internet

Borderline: Early Man, Liz and the Blue Bird, Ruben Brandt

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3 hours ago, CoolioD1 said:

wow didn't expect support the girls to get any love. great movie! 

 

You know what? I think it'd be cool to see Regina Hall nominated at the Golden Globes in Best Comedy/Musical Actress. Who else is really a sure bet besides Blunt, Colman, Fisher, and Wu? Hall is getting enough notices for me to say with certainty that if Magnolia Pictures wanted to go for it, they certainly could.

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2 minutes ago, Slambros said:

 

You know what? I think it'd be cool to see Regina Hall nominated at the Golden Globes in Best Comedy/Musical Actress. Who else is really a sure bet besides Blunt, Colman, Fisher, and Wu? Hall is getting enough notices for me to say with certainty that if Magnolia Pictures wanted to go for it, they certainly could.

maybe kathryn hahn for private life. she's been campaiging doing the roundtables and whatnot. unfortunately i don't think there's been any sort of push for regina hall and the globe nominations are under a week away it seems a little late.

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