The Panda Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 25 minutes ago, filmlover said: Plenty of snubs here. Vice, BlacKkKlansman, The Favourite, Widows. Also: Incredibles 2 for Animated Film and not Isle of Dogs. Had they even seen Vice yet? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 2 minutes ago, PANDA said: Had they even seen Vice yet? I’d be surprised if they haven’t. Movie’s been widely seen, just under embargo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That One Girl Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 Only films from this century to not get nominated after winning Best Film are A Most Violent Year and Quills, so this bodes pretty well for Green Book. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 32 minutes ago, filmlover said: Plenty of snubs here. Vice, BlacKkKlansman, The Favourite, Widows. Also: Incredibles 2 for Animated Film and not Isle of Dogs. Oh yeah and no First Man as well. Lots of snubs this year. But hey, at least there was no blind Eastwood love from them this year (since nobody has seen The Mule yet and The 15:17 to Paris was too embarrassing). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAM! Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 First Reformed has already received two important Screenplay wins (Gotham and NPR), so that bodes extremely well for its nomination. It seems like the critic circles have responded very well to it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 Also I’m thinking this is the start of what will likely end up being a J.K. Simmons-style clean sweep for Sam Elliott. It’s just one of those kinds of years for that category. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 thomasin mckenzie winning best breakthrough here and elsie fisher winning it at the gothams are both pretty cool! they won't get oscar nominations but they're probably my #1 and #2 in best actress right now. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 9 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said: thomasin mckenzie winning best breakthrough here and elsie fisher winning it at the gothams are both pretty cool! they won't get oscar nominations but they're probably my #1 and #2 in best actress right now. Haven’t seen Leave No Trace yet but Fisher is likely making my ballot at our awards (Gaga and Amandla Stenberg in The Hate U Give are the others that I’ve seen so far that are sure to make the cut). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 (edited) NBR matches with the Oscars over the decade 2017 Picture: Nod Top Films + Picture: 6/9 (Missed the winner) Director: Nod Actor: Missed Actress: Nod Supporting Actor: Nod Supp Actress: Won Ori Screenplay: Missed Ad Screenplay: Nod Animation: Won Doc: Missed Foreign: Missed 2016 Picture: Nod Top Films + Picture: 7/9 Director: Nod Actor: Won Actress: Missed Supp Actor: Nod Supp Actress: Nod OS: Won AS: Missed Animation: Nod Doc: Won Foreign: Won 2015 Picture: Nod Top Films + Picture: 5/8 Director: Missed Actor: Nod Actress: Won Supp Actor: Nod Supp Actress: Nod OS: Missed AS: Nod Animation: Won Doc: Won Foreign: Won 2014 Picture: Missed Top Films + Picture: 4/8 Director: Missed Actor: Tie: Missed/Nod Actress: Won Supp Actor: Nod Supp Actress: Missed OS: Missed AS: Nod Animated: Nod Doc: Missed Foreign: Nod 2013: Picture: Nod Top Films + Picture: 5/9 Director: Missed Actor: Nod Actress: Missed Supp Actor: Missed Supp Actress: Missed OS: Missed AS: Nod Animation: Nod Foreign: Missed Doc: Missed 2012: Picture: Nod Top Films + Picture: 7/9 Director: Missed Actor: Nod Actress: Nod Supp Actor: Missed Supp Actress: Missed OS: Missed AS: Nod Animation: Nod Foreign: Won Doc: Won 2011: Picture: Nod Top Films + Picture: 5/9 Director: Nod Actor: Nod Actress: Missed Supp Actor: Won Supp Actress: Missed OS: Missed AS: Won Animation: Won Foreign: Won Doc: Nod 2010: Picture: Nod Top Films + Picture: 7/10 Director: Nod Actor: Nod Actress: Missed Supp Actor: Won Supp Actress: Nod OS: Missed AS: Won Animation: Won Foreign: Missed Doc: Missed Overall: Picture: Nod 7/8, Win 0/8 Top Films + Picture: 42/71 Nods Director: 4/8 Nod, 0/8 Win Actor: Nod 7/9, Win 1/9 Actress: 4/8 Nod, 2/8 Win Supp Actor: 6/8 Nod, 2/8 Win Supp Actress: 3/8 Nod, 1/8 Win OS: 1/8 Nod, 1/8 Win AS: 7/8 Nod, 2/8 Win Animation: 8/8 Nod, 4/8 Win Foreign: 5/8 Nod, 4/8 Win Doc: 4/8 Nod, 3/8 Win If NBR was the only Metric: Picture: 87.5% Chance Green Book receives a nomination 0% Chance Green Book wins BP 55% Chance the following films receive a nomination (or about half of them will get a nod): The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, Black Panther, Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Eighth Grade, First Reformed, If Beale Street Could Talk, Mary Poppins Returns, A Quiet Place, Roma, A Star is Born Director: 50% Chance Bradley Cooper receives a nomination 0% Chance Bradley Cooper wins Best Director Actor: 77.8% Chance Viggo Mortensen receives a nomination 11.11% Chance Mortensen wins Best Actor (14.29% chance if Mortensen gets the nomination) Actress: 50% Chance Lady Gaga receives a nomination 25% Chance Lady Gaga wins Best Actress (50% chance if Lady Gaga gets the nomination) Supporting Actress: 37.5% Chance Regina King receives a nomination 12.5% chance King wins Best Supporting Actress (33.33% chance if King gets the nomination) Supporting Actor: 75% Chance Sam Elliott receives a nomination 25% Chance Elliott wins Best Supporting Actor (33.33% chance if Elliott get the nomination) Original Screenplay: 12.5% Chance First Reformed receives a nomination 12.5% Chance First Reformed Wins Original Screenplay (~100% if First Reformed gets the nomination, only one sample so lol at 100%) Adapted Screenplay: 87.5% Chance If Beale Street Could Talk receives a nomination 25% Chance If Beale Street Could Talk wins Adapted Screenplay (28.57% chance if Beale Street gets the nomination) Animation: 100% Chance Incredibles 2 receives a nomination 50% Chance Incredibles 2 wins Animated Feature Foreign: 62.5% Chance Cold War receives a nomination 50% Chance Cold War wins Best Foreign Feature (80% chance if Cold War gets the nomination) Documentary: 50% Chance RBG receives a nomination 37.5% Chance RBG wins Best Documentary Feature (75% chance if RBG gets nomination) Based on all of this: Bet on Incredibles 2 getting an Animated Feature nomination Bet on If Beale Street Could Talk getting a Screenplay nod Bet on Green Book and Mortensen getting a BP and Actor Nod (but don't bet on either of them being contenders to win) Edited November 27, 2018 by PANDA 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 44 minutes ago, Slambros said: First Reformed has already received two important Screenplay wins (Gotham and NPR), so that bodes extremely well for its nomination. It seems like the critic circles have responded very well to it. Oddly enough, getting an OS screenplay Nod from NBR seems to be a curse, because only one NPR winner for OS has gotten a nomination this decade. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 2 minutes ago, filmlover said: Haven’t seen Leave No Trace yet but Fisher is likely making my ballot at our awards (Gaga and Amandla Stenberg in The Hate U Give are the others that I’ve seen so far that are sure to make the cut). performance that definitely deserves to be in the conversation but won't be because it's almost a year old and it's in a broad comedy: Rachel McAdams in Game Night. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 1 minute ago, CoolioD1 said: performance that definitely deserves to be in the conversation but won't be because it's almost a year old and it's in a broad comedy: Rachel McAdams in Game Night. Game Night should be a nominee for SAG Ensemble tbh. Jesse Plemons might still be my favorite Supporting Actor performance from this year so far. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 20 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said: thomasin mckenzie winning best breakthrough here and elsie fisher winning it at the gothams are both pretty cool! they won't get oscar nominations but they're probably my #1 and #2 in best actress right now. Coolio gets it (tho I'd swap them around mostly bc I like Eighth Grade better) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 (edited) Also, I am going to be keeping tabs of each precursor. And I decided the most unbiased way to determine a precursors weight is how well they match with the Oscars for each individual category. So, every precursor will have potential for 10 points, but will only get a fraction based off how well that match (so if they match 2/8 times this decade, they get 2.5 points for that cat). I may potentially beef up the weight for the guilds, haven't fully decided if I will or not yet. This will certainly be a major step up from how I was weighting precursors last year. I should even be able to come up with nice probabilities in my nomination tables (and I'll throw in how confident I feel about each given probability as well). I may throw in a scandal weight as well. For example, Mortensen may have a high probability (as of now), but you could theoretically say his n-word scandal should weight that probability down a bit. Same with James Franco last year. Edited November 27, 2018 by PANDA 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 6 minutes ago, PANDA said: Also, I am going to be keeping tabs of each precursor. And I decided the most unbiased way to determine a precursors weight is how well they match with the Oscars for each individual category. So, every precursor will have potential for 10 points, but will only get a fraction based off how well that match (so if they match 2/8 times this decade, they get 2.5 points for that cat). I may potentially beef up the weight for the guilds, haven't fully decided if I will or not yet. This will certainly be a major step up from how I was weighting precursors last year. I should even be able to come up with nice probabilities in my nomination tables (and I'll throw in how confident I feel about each given probability as well). I may throw in a scandal weight as well. For example, Mortensen may have a high probability (as of now), but you could theoretically say his n-word scandal should weight that probability down a bit. Same with James Franco last year. I still don't buy this argument. Franco's case was dropped like three days before voting ending. He wasn't nominated because there were better performances Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 Yeah, Franco likely would’ve missed even without that 11th hour scandal. They probably just didn’t want to nominate a Tommy Wiseau impersonation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 I still forget that TDA was an actual movie. One of the biggest disappointments of the past few years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 1 hour ago, WrathOfHan said: I still don't buy this argument. Franco's case was dropped like three days before voting ending. He wasn't nominated because there were better performances Not saying he wouldn't have missed, but even just negative press could potentially have an impact on voting. Not to mention the case hadn't been dropped for a decent portion of time when voting was still open. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cmasterclay Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 (edited) My take on NBR nominations: Don't read too much into NBR nominations. The only take I have from any of the early awards is that Black Kklansman probably needs to start showing strength soon, and also confirmed my long-time thought that Ethan Hawke is a solid third in the Best Actor field with an outside chance to win it if everything breaks right (Cooper spread too thin in other categories and Vice is as divisive as people indicate). Edited November 27, 2018 by Cmasterclay 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 i was skimming the Oscar eligibility rules since someone in the lion king thread asked about them and apparently a Best Original Musical category exists but it has to be activated by the music branch executive if they feel like the year justifies the category. obviously not this year but since the genre seems to be making a comeback i wonder if we'll ever see that again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
