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Daily Numbers | Thursday 4th Jan | J 6, TLJ 4.4

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Ever since New Year’s Day, Jumanji has been whipping Last Jedi* on a daily basis. That was the same case on Thursday with Jumanji making an estimated $6M and Last Jedi $4.4M. 

http://deadline.com/2018/01/insidious-the-last-key-last-jedi-jumanji-weekend-box-office-1202236009/

 

*:rofl:

Edited by a2knet
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Jumanji

$9.1 million 

$14.2 million

$9.3 million 

 

$32.6 million ($240.9 million)

 

$21 million/$28 million ($276 million)

$11 million ($289 million)

$8 million ($300 million)

$4 million ($306 million)

$2 million ($309 million)

$1 million/$1.5 million ($311 million)

$313-315 million DOM 

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TLJ still on track to finish at around 630-635M.  The Friday jump will really tell the story of the rest of its run.  R1 jumped 56% while TFA jumped 80% - TFA also had a stronger Saturday jump compared to R1 which I believe is explained by the calendar as TFA had a weak Wed-Thurs in week 3. 

 

R1 made roughly 60% of TFA in its first 3 weeks, then crashed to about 45% for the rest of its run. 

TLJ has made 75% in week 1, 64% in week 2 and 71% in week 3.  It needs to stay above 45% in week 4 and forward to finish above The Avengers and it need to stay above 61% to beat JW and 65% for Titanic. 

I believe TLJ will manage 50% of TFA for the rest of its run and finish at 635M. 

 

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1 minute ago, langer said:

TLJ still on track to finish at around 630-635M.  The Friday jump will really tell the story of the rest of its run.  R1 jumped 56% while TFA jumped 80% - TFA also had a stronger Saturday jump compared to R1 which I believe is explained by the calendar as TFA had a weak Wed-Thurs in week 3. 

 

Yeah, with more kids out this week compared to last 2 years I think the Fri bump could be about 45%.

6.4 (+45.5%)

9.7 (+51.5%)

6.5 (-33.0%)

= 22.6 (-57%)

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4 minutes ago, langer said:

TLJ still on track to finish at around 630-635M.  The Friday jump will really tell the story of the rest of its run.  R1 jumped 56% while TFA jumped 80% - TFA also had a stronger Saturday jump compared to R1 which I believe is explained by the calendar as TFA had a weak Wed-Thurs in week 3. 

 

R1 made roughly 60% of TFA in its first 3 weeks, then crashed to about 45% for the rest of its run. 

TLJ has made 75% in week 1, 64% in week 2 and 71% in week 3.  It needs to stay above 45% in week 4 and forward to finish above The Avengers and it need to stay above 61% to beat JW and 65% for Titanic. 

I believe TLJ will manage 50% of TFA for the rest of its run and finish at 635M. 

 

 

That would be a good result at this point. It was boosted this week by having more kids out of school than either TFA or Rogue One. The holiday boost ends after this weekend. I am not sure it will go much higher than Avengers.

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Ever since New Year’s Day, Jumanji has been whipping Last Jedi on a daily basis. That was the same case on Thursday with Jumanji making an estimated $6M and Last Jedi $4.4M. Jumanji stands at over $208M stateside while Last Jedi is now 29% behind Star Wars: The Force Awakens just prior to its fourth weekend. Rival distributors believe that Last Jedi‘s end game is now in the mid $600M range versus the $700M initially projected. Currently the Rian Johnson-directed movie is the sixth highest on the all-time domestic list, just under Disney’s Marvel’s The Avenger which made $623.3M.

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3 minutes ago, MaxAggressor said:

So TLJ dropped around 15.79%. R1 dropped 8.1% on the same day (21st day) and TLJ is ahead of R1 by 13.02%.

 

The Thu-Thu drop for TLJ is 77.42%. while R1 dropped 76.72%. Also Jumanji dropped just 4.6%. That's extremely good, right??

dropped about 13.3% from 6.92 Wed, which is still a good number considering Wed was stronger than expected due to extended holidays I guess.

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One thing is for certain, the calendar has not benefited movies this week.  These drops are normal drops instead of being somewhat softer like I thought they would be.

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3 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

If the number is $6m, that's a 13.3% drop from $6.92m Wednesday.

Dang. I read the figure wrong. I only had a quick glance at the title and I read Jumanji's Thursday at 6.6 million. Thanks for the clarification. :) :D

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10 minutes ago, baumer said:

One thing is for certain, the calendar has not benefited movies this week.  These drops are normal drops instead of being somewhat softer like I thought they would be.

 

The calendar has benefited them. They increased on Monday whereas normally you would be seeing 70-80% drops on Monday. Look at the weekly drops. TLJ is the only one that looks bad. Rest of them look better than we saw for the 2015 or 2016 movies during this same week.

 

Example: Jumanji has been compared to Sing due to similar release date. Sing was down 79% from Thursday to Thursday. Jumanji was down about 60% from Thursday to Thursday.

Edited by redfirebird2008
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8 minutes ago, Darth Boh-ne'er said:

Yup.  It's hilarious, Disney is laughing all the way to the bank!

While it will not get to 700m, it will be around 630m. Let's see how many mega hits even come close to TLJ gross over the next few years. 

 

Personally, my most anticipated movie for this year IW. I would be very happy if it clears 500m. 

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4 minutes ago, a2knet said:

dropped about 13.3% from 6.92 Wed, which is still a good number considering Wed was stronger than expected due to extended holidays I guess.

Just realized my mistake. I thought the number was 6.6 million. My bad.

 

So we expect a more muted Friday for most movies to compensate for the good weekday numbers??

 

Also iirc, you early prediction for TLJ after Tuesday was 4.7m (Wed), 4.3m (Thu), 6m (Fri), 9.6m (Sat) & 6.4m (Sun) [22 million 4th Weekend]. So TLJ did recover nicely what with the Wed. & Thu. numbers coming above your predictions.

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9 minutes ago, Darth Boh-ne'er said:

Yup.  It's hilarious, Disney is laughing all the way to the bank!

Are you sure about that?

 

Everyone else is managing to get their movies to work in China, and Disney can't get their biggest, flagship brand to be anything but a flop over there? 

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