Weekend Thread | 3-day estimates (per BOM): J 27M, TP 18.6M, TC 13.45M, I:TLK 12.14M, TGS 11.8M, TLJ 11.28M, P2 10.62M, PM 10M

[narniadis]

2 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

The Pixar brand name would honestly be in pretty sorry shape domestically right now if not for Dory. TGD, Cars 3, and now Coco are far and away their least attended films, and all 3 would have posted losses for them if not for Coco's OS breakout. Incredibles 2 and TS4 will do big numbers, but it's kind of disheartening to know that sequels to their classics will be the only reason they stay afloat as a big name in the animation world from 2016-2020. 

Ebb and Flow - I mean Disney had this happen more than once. Every studio eventually has a slump, some survive it and return to the top and others just kind of settle (DWA would be in this group). Hopefully after 2020 with fresh blood in the group we start to see a bit of a resurgence.

[meriodejaneiro]

 

6 hours ago, weresweresweres said:

6 hours ago, meriodejaneiro said:

279M by last sunday. In a couple of hours we'll know how much it's added in the last 7 days.

 

Only Japan in March.

News from yesterday:

Quote

It is near $400 million overseas, including a solid $26m Fri-Sat start in China

https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2018/01/13/box-office-star-wars-the-last-jedi-falls-to-7th-as-jumanji-tops-friday/#3bd58a9228a7

Hm... still at 383M. 

Has it been near $400M since friday? 

[Jonwo]

26 minutes ago, narniadis said:

Ebb and Flow - I mean Disney had this happen more than once. Every studio eventually has a slump, some survive it and return to the top and others just kind of settle (DWA would be in this group). Hopefully after 2020 with fresh blood in the group we start to see a bit of a resurgence.

Coco is going to eventually make $640-650m WW that's more than Brave and Wall-E. It's not Inside Out numbers but TBH I think Disney will be happy with it. 

 

I think Pixar just needs new blood, they used a lot of the same creatives and it would be nice if they were to have new directors direct and write the originals. I don't think Disney are going to slash the budgets for their films anytime soon nor is it in any danger like DWA was a few years back.

[Random2]

Goons, attack the Weekend thread city!

 

[KP1025]

12 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

Coco is going to eventually make $640-650m WW that's more than Brave and Wall-E. It's not Inside Out numbers but TBH I think Disney will be happy with it. 

 

 

Coco is going over $700 million and may even approach $800 million if it breaks out in Japan. It's already over $620 million, and it has just started (or about to start) in major markets like South Korea, UK, and finally Japan in March.

[Jandrew]

54 minutes ago, Harpospoke said:

 

The state of my underwear is fine.  Thanks for your concern fine citizen.

 

You said this:

First of all, your "Americans suck" tirade is political.   You singled out a particular country and assigned a broad negative description to them.   You are right that you have every right to do that...but others also have the right to notice you wedging politics into a discussion about the box office for a movie because you are upset that it "should be making more".   Naturally that means "Americans are dumb" in your mind.

 

And go ahead and tell me what this "current state" is?   Not political?   Maybe you were talking about the weather perhaps?  

 

So go ahead and find a way to make an effort to connect politics to you being upset about a movie's gross.   But don't pretend it didn't happen.

Edited January 14, 2018 by Jandrew

[MovieMan89]

19 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

Coco is going to eventually make $640-650m WW that's more than Brave and Wall-E. It's not Inside Out numbers but TBH I think Disney will be happy with it. 

 

I think Pixar just needs new blood, they used a lot of the same creatives and it would be nice if they were to have new directors direct and write the originals. I don't think Disney are going to slash the budgets for their films anytime soon nor is it in any danger like DWA was a few years back.

Disney is happy with it I'm sure, but Mexico and China basically saved it. Take out the massive over-performances there and I don't think Disney would be too thrilled with Coco's take being more like $550m WW, especially if it really cost $225m+ as rumored. 

Edited January 14, 2018 by MovieMan89

[KP1025]

Good analysis by @averagejoe about Coco's chances of hitting $800 million WW.

 

Quote

The possibility is very high indeed. It needs $180 million from where it is now to get there.

 

Apart from what you have listed, it will do at least $10 million more domestically and about $15 million in the nordic countries (Norway, Sweden, Denmark) and Turkey where it has yet to open.

 

Holdovers will do a lot more than $20 million, its opening in Argentina bids well for it and could do $10 million or even more from there alone. And if it continues to hold strong in other markets, the holdovers can go from $35 million - $40 million.

 

For South Korea, $40 million seems about right if it legs out well, but it could have an even massive breakout considering its success in China and WOM seems to be terrific in the country.

 

UK wise, I agree that $30 million is the floor since all Pixar original films (except TGD) has grossed more than $30 million there. Considering the critical acclaim Coco has garnered and its BAFTA nomination, Coco has a shot of getting boosted by the awards season buzz and could even go higher into the $40-$50 million plus range. But I will put UK at about $35 million for now.

 

Japan is a huge wild card, but how Coco played out in the rest of Asia certainly puts it in a good spot ahead of its Japanese bow in March. Given how Japanese enjoy quality and meaningful animated films, a massive breakout is not out of the question here. I would say $75 million will most likely happen and it certainly has the potential to go even higher than that.

7

 

Edited January 14, 2018 by KP1025

[MovieMan89]

Even if 800 happens (which is really making a big assumption that it's going to be massive in Japan), you have to factor in that if it had behaved like normal Pixar in China it would have probably done 25-30m and if it hadn't been an outright phenomenon in Mexico, it probably would have done around 30m (which is still massive there). So subtract nearly 200 off the gross. 550-600 wouldn't have been a disaster, but I don't think Disney would have been thrilled with the number either with a $225m budget. That's probably really pushing it for a profit when you factor in marketing. And Coco isn't some big merch seller either. So it got very lucky to have the Mexico and China performances. 

[Jonwo]

16 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Disney is happy with it I'm sure, but Mexico and China basically saved it. Take out the massive over-performances there and I don't think Disney would be too thrilled with Coco's take being more like $550m WW, especially if it really cost $225m+ as rumored. 

Pixar films have always been expensive apart from the early films but I somehow doubt Disney are going to start cost cutting anytime soon,

 

WDAS doesn't spend nearly as much, Zootopia and Moana cost $150m so I wonder if Pixar seem to able to command higher budgets because of their track record.

[MovieMan89]

1 minute ago, Jonwo said:

Pixar films have always been expensive apart from the early films but I somehow doubt Disney are going to start cost cutting anytime soon,

 

WDAS doesn't spend nearly as much, Zootopia and Moana cost $150m so I wonder if Pixar seem to able to command higher budgets because of their track record.

Yes but that track record is failing them. 2 of their last 4 releases took a loss and now Coco just managed to be profitable because it broke out beyond any reasonable expectation in two markets.

 

Of course, I2 and TS4 will course correct that track record, so you're right Disney probably isn't going to cut their budgets anytime soon. 

[meriodejaneiro]

13 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

Coco is going to eventually make $640-650m WW that's more than Brave and Wall-E. It's not Inside Out numbers but TBH I think Disney will be happy with it. 

 

I think Pixar just needs new blood, they used a lot of the same creatives and it would be nice if they were to have new directors direct and write the originals. I don't think Disney are going to slash the budgets for their films anytime soon nor is it in any danger like DWA was a few years back.

Too low.... way too low i'd say. 

It's at $621M today. And it's still to be shown at:

Czech Republic	18 January 2018
UK	19 January 2018
Ireland	19 January 2018
Turkey	19 January 2018
Norway	2 February 2018
Sweden	2 February 2018
Denmark	8 February 2018
Finland	16 February 2018
Japan	16 March 2018

 

And given it's broken out in China, it's had the 3rd biggest opening ever in South Korea for a Disney animated movie (so, good numbers too) ... we can expect Coco to make pretty good numbers in Japan, even close to 100M.

 

Before it's release, I was betting for Coco having IO numbers (356+501=857M) while almost everybody were tagging it as a failure.

 

IO made 80M in those countries + 32M in Japan (a very bad and rare bo for a Disney-Pixar film in Japan). 

 

Coco os is 425M. And I think it can still add some 170M (80M from Japan, 40M from UK, 20M from SK ...), for an aprox 600M os (Pixar's #2 os after TS3 652M). And that would put Coco on 800M, for Pixar #4 ww just behind IO 857M ww.

 

 

[ThomasNicole]

I honestly can't see Coco as a domestic disappointment , of course $ 205-210M isn't exceptional, but the expectations for this before the release are $ 140 - 160M, the movie have a big lack of buzz before the release, so for me is a success, especially considering the movie have a latin theme and characters.

 

And i don't think the $ 225M budget is true, i see a lot of articles saying $ 175M [which is in line with other original Pixar movies].

Edited January 14, 2018 by ThomasNicole

[tonga]

Coco is doing very very well. 

 

Thought it would be a Good Dinosaur! 

[meriodejaneiro]

35 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Disney is happy with it I'm sure, but Mexico and China basically saved it. Take out the massive over-performances there and I don't think Disney would be too thrilled with Coco's take being more like $550m WW, especially if it really cost $225m+ as rumored. 

I hope it's not from where the rumors of TLJ costing 800M came from. 

TheNumbers give Coco a price tag of 175M. 

 

26 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Even if 800 happens (which is really making a big assumption that it's going to be massive in Japan), you have to factor in that if it had behaved like normal Pixar in China it would have probably done 25-30m and if it hadn't been an outright phenomenon in Mexico, it probably would have done around 30m (which is still massive there). So subtract nearly 200 off the gross. 550-600 wouldn't have been a disaster, but I don't think Disney would have been thrilled with the number either with a $225m budget. That's probably really pushing it for a profit when you factor in marketing. And Coco isn't some big merch seller either. So it got very lucky to have the Mexico and China performances. 

So, for Disney the standards are as follow:

 

- If a Disney movie overperforms in China, it's BAD because you get few money back from China --> Coco

- If a Disney movie underperforms in China, it's BAD because they are missing the meant to-be-#1 market ww --> TLJ

 

So, whatever Disney makes, it's f**ked up according to some people here around. 

[filmlover]

1 hour ago, WrathOfHan said:

Just oversaw an ad on A&E for Phantom Thread that was really touting the hell out of Daniel Day Lewis  Focus has aired over 1k ads for it, so I'd be pretty surprised if it doesn't end up hitting 1k theaters post-Oscar nominations.

To be fair, they're most likely advertising it only in areas where it would do well (like mine). I doubt they're pushing it at all in places like Middle America.

[MovieMan89]

I'm not arguing Coco isn't a success, it absolutely is, I'm just saying it did get pretty fortunate to have a huge breakout in a few OS markets. The DOM performance is very underwhelming. Even if it beat expectations, the expectations were for it to bomb. The opening was high enough that WOM should have carried it to a much stronger total. Hard to imagine they could have made a better film. 

[filmlover]

Just now, MovieMan89 said:

I'm not arguing Coco isn't a success, it absolutely is, I'm just saying it did get pretty fortunate to have a huge breakout in a few OS markets. The DOM performance is very underwhelming. Even if it beat expectations, the expectations were for it to bomb. The opening was high enough that WOM should have carried it to a much stronger total. Hard to imagine they could have made a better film. 

For a film that a lot of people thought would be a Good Dinosaur-style flop before it opened, I'd say it did pretty damn awesome.

[JohnnyGossamer]

Coco breaking out in Mexico was probably expected. Maybe not as much so in China and South Korea, but that's good trend, no? Will likely finish with $750M+ WW. Not bad at all. And, isn't their next release Incredibles 2? That's gonna make a killing. Pretty much locked for $1B+ WW. I think they're alright.

[tonga]

20 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Coco breaking out in Mexico was probably expected. Maybe not as much so in China and South Korea, but that's good trend, no? Will likely finish with $750M+ WW. Not bad at all. And, isn't their next release Incredibles 2? That's gonna make a killing. Pretty much locked for $1B+ WW. I think they're alright.

Of course!

 

I2 can go all the way up to 1.1B if it really speicale