Weekend Thread | 3-day estimates (per BOM): J 27M, TP 18.6M, TC 13.45M, I:TLK 12.14M, TGS 11.8M, TLJ 11.28M, P2 10.62M, PM 10M

[Barnack]

12 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

So getting close or past it isn't that bad...it's unprecedented for a direct sequel.

 

The second biggest direct sequel is TDK with 534 m DOM.

 

3rd is Finding Dory with 486 m.

Even adjusted not many of them above Avengers

 

Empire Strike Back/Return of the Jedi, Dark Knight and Thunderball were close and Shrek 2 in the same ball park, pretty much it.

[narniadis]

@hw64 the Dollar theater boost you are looking for is sometimes obscured by other things. Films are constantly adding and dropping theaters through out their entire run - Some films will add dollar theaters early on (This happened with several November films this past year due to the glut of new films at Christmas) and as such didn't really see much in the way of "boosts" because it wasn't noticeable. Some films get way down in theater counts before they ever get their 2nd run and it does become noticeable - Disney is pretty regular about that around the 12-13 week mark depending on the film and how quickly it dropped theaters. Then you have the Marvel / Pixar 2nd spins that happen on a slightly bigger scale than others which are even more pronounced. Most films don't add more than a mil or two from when the boost starts so R1 wasn't abnormal at all. TLJ may or may not get the same, WOM isn't exactly begging for a 2nd/3rd/4th outing even at the dollar theater.

[meriodejaneiro]

1 hour ago, That One Guy said:

Let's say that Jumanji adds another $125M to its run and gets to $410M and lowball all the Disney releases and highball all the Sony releases.

 

Sony:

 

Jumanji - $201M

Proud Mary - $35M

Peter Rabbit - $150M

Paul, Apostle of Christ - $70M

Slenderman - $60M

Sicario 2: Soldado - $85M

Hotel Transylvania 3 - $180M

The Equalizer 2 - $100M

Barbie - $150M

Cadaver - $50M

Alpha - $60M

Venom - $250M

Goosebumps 2 - $80M

The Girl in the Spider's Web - $95M

Holmes & Watson - $155M

Spider-Verse - $230M

 

Total - $1,951M

 

Disney:

 

Star Wars - $80M

Coco - $25M

Black Panther - $200M

A Wrinkle in Time - $50M

Infinity War - $380M

Solo - $280M

Incredibles 2 - $240M

Ant-Man - $150M

Christopher Robin - $50M

Nutcracker - $55M

Wreck-it Ralph - $100M

Mary Poppins - $90M

 

Total - $1,700M

 

 

You mean Disney ow releases, right?

[narniadis]

Also going back to the CMBYN discussion - disagree with @JonathanLB all you want but his comment wasn't derogatory, he expressed why he didn't care for it and labeled it for what it would be in any other situation - a romance film, which typically only appeal to a smaller subset of the population. Making it about two men only shrinks the pool of upfront interest. I will also insert that (without seeing it for myself) the couple of people I know that have seen it had similar complaints in that outside of good performances the film is boring (they had the same complaint about Boyhood which I liked...) a rather not uncommon complaint about a lot of award films by the general audience. Also he isn't wrong in that the film won't really succeed in fly-over country outside of the bigger cities, it is what it is and there isn't anything wrong in acknowledging that - no different than how most sports films don't perform as well on the coasts - or what happened with American Sniper where it blasted off in the middle while only being ok on the Coasts.

[narniadis]

Considering the subject matter and the current social climate I think CMBYN has done as well as it could have to date given it's release pattern.

[MovieMan89]

2 hours ago, That One Guy said:

Let's say that Jumanji adds another $125M to its run and gets to $410M and lowball all the Disney releases and highball all the Sony releases.

 

Sony:

 

Jumanji - $201M

Proud Mary - $35M

Peter Rabbit - $150M

Paul, Apostle of Christ - $70M

Slenderman - $60M

Sicario 2: Soldado - $85M

Hotel Transylvania 3 - $180M

The Equalizer 2 - $100M

Barbie - $150M

Cadaver - $50M

Alpha - $60M

Venom - $250M

Goosebumps 2 - $80M

The Girl in the Spider's Web - $95M

Holmes & Watson - $155M

Spider-Verse - $230M

 

Total - $1,951M

 

Disney:

 

Star Wars - $80M

Coco - $25M

Black Panther - $200M

A Wrinkle in Time - $50M

Infinity War - $380M

Solo - $280M

Incredibles 2 - $240M

Ant-Man - $150M

Christopher Robin - $50M

Nutcracker - $55M

Wreck-it Ralph - $100M

Mary Poppins - $90M

 

Total - $1,700M

 

 

There's a far better chance of the world ending than pretty much any of those Disney predicts coming true.

[redfirebird2008]

58 minutes ago, hw64 said:

Not exactly unprecendented if The Dark Knight with no 3D adjusts to far more with The Last Jedi's average ticket price than The Last Jedi itself has made.

 

The Dark Knight sold 74.3m tickets using the average ticket price of 2008. The Last Jedi will probably sell between 60m and 65m ticket by the end of its run.

 

TDK made $50m in IMAX, so I have it estimated around 70-72m tickets.

[hw64]

2 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

TDK made $50m in IMAX, so I have it estimated around 70-72m tickets.

Fair point.

[MovieMan89]

6 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

TDK made $50m in IMAX, so I have it estimated around 70-72m tickets.

What do you have Avengers at?

[redfirebird2008]

2 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

What do you have Avengers at?

 

Very similar range. Spidey 1 also similar.

 

We can never get an exact one since all movies behave different. It became really screwed up once 3D and theater PLF and the expansion of IMAX came into play. At least with TDK we know it was $50m IMAX, no 3D, and no PLF (didn't exist until 2010 and has expanded an insane amount since then).

 

With Spidey 1 we know it had no IMAX, no 3D, no PLF...but we also know Spidey skews more towards kids. Which is why I think that one might be over 70 million admissions despite the BOM counter saying 69.5 million.

[MovieMan89]

14 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

Very similar range. Spidey 1 also similar.

 

We can never get an exact one since all movies behave different. It became really screwed up once 3D and theater PLF and the expansion of IMAX came into play. At least with TDK we know it was $50m IMAX, no 3D, and no PLF (didn't exist until 2010 and has expanded an insane amount since then).

 

With Spidey 1 we know it had no IMAX, no 3D, no PLF...but we also know Spidey skews more towards kids. Which is why I think that one might be over 70 million admissions despite the BOM counter saying 69.5 million.

Its always seemed to me TA should be slightly ahead b/c adjusted it has a decent $22m lead over TDK and IMAX was nowhere near as big of a thing for TA as TDK, and IMAX adds the most inflation. Of course TA has 3d, but I wonder how big of a share it really had? I don't remember it being a "see it in 3d" movie with anyone. 

[redfirebird2008]

4 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Its always seemed to me TA should be slightly ahead b/c adjusted it has a decent $22m lead over TDK and IMAX was nowhere near as big of a thing for TA as TDK, and IMAX adds the most inflation. Of course TA has 3d, but I wonder how big of a share it really had? I don't remember it being a "see it in 3d" movie with anyone. 

 

50% of the opening weekend was 3D and I would guess a healthy amount of the remaining gross was 3D too. PLF was also a factor in 2012 (compared to zilch in 2008), though not as strong as now.

[Barnack]

40 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Its always seemed to me TA should be slightly ahead b/c adjusted it has a decent $22m lead over TDK and IMAX was nowhere near as big of a thing for TA as TDK, and IMAX adds the most inflation. Of course TA has 3d, but I wonder how big of a share it really had? I don't remember it being a "see it in 3d" movie with anyone. 

Pre-sales was quite heavy on the special screen for the avengers:

 

http://screencrush.com/avengers-ticket-sales/

 

56 percent of sales are for 3D showings, while 37 percent of the tickets purchased are for IMAX 3D.

 

Not that different than the opening weekend apparently:

 

If so, that "best debut ever" honor would still belong to Disney and Marvel’s “The Avengers,” which bowed to $207 million in the first week in May. About 52 percent of that total came from premium –aka more expensive– 3D tickets.

 

https://www.thewrap.com/dark-knight-rises-vs-avengers-lack-3d-will-cut-batman-box-office-48026/

 

2012 was still in the post 2009 3D craze, even if the Avengers was not particularly seen as one the format was really popular in general.

Edited January 15, 2018 by Barnack

[redfirebird2008]

@MovieMan89

 

Another thing I remember about Avengers at my theater. They were still in the phase of cramming 3D down the public's throat. My theater has 14 screens total. Avengers was playing on a tiny screen in 2D while another 4 screens (the biggest in the building) were all 3D.

 

So of course the 2D show is a small auditorium and sells out immediately for shows. People are desperate enough to see that kind of hyped movie, so they can force the 3D ratio to be a lot higher than it would be in a free market. Just offer 90% of your showtimes in 3D. Boom.

 

[MovieMan89]

3 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

50% of the opening weekend was 3D and I would guess a healthy amount of the remaining gross was 3D too. PLF was also a factor in 2012 (compared to zilch in 2008), though not as strong as now.

Movies lose 3d screens quickly though, especially back in 2012 when many blockbusters were being released in 3d. If it was 50% of OW, I have a hard time believing it was much more than 30% total. 

[redfirebird2008]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

Movies lose 3d screens quickly though, especially back in 2012 when many blockbusters were being released in 3d. If it was 50% of OW, I have a hard time believing it was much more than 30% total. 

 

This was not the case at my theater. You're talking about a movie that still grossed over $100m in the 2nd weekend and had pretty weak competition. It was still playing on plenty of 3D screens even after opening weekend.

[MovieMan89]

3 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

This was not the case at my theater. You're talking about a movie that still grossed over $100m in the 2nd weekend and had pretty weak competition. It was still playing on plenty of 3D screens even after opening weekend.

Did Dark Shadows, Battleship, and/or MIB 3 have 3d? None of them did very well, but they would have taken 3D screens if they had it. 

[redfirebird2008]

I don't think Dark Shadows had 3D. Funny thing is that one was scheduled for IMAX, but they ended up sharing showtimes with Avengers.

[Taruseth]

3 hours ago, That One Guy said:

Let's say that Jumanji adds another $125M to its run and gets to $410M and lowball all the Disney releases and highball all the Sony releases.

 

Sony:

 

Jumanji - $201M

Proud Mary - $35M

Peter Rabbit - $150M

Paul, Apostle of Christ - $70M

Slenderman - $60M

Sicario 2: Soldado - $85M

Hotel Transylvania 3 - $180M

The Equalizer 2 - $100M

Barbie - $150M

Cadaver - $50M

Alpha - $60M

Venom - $250M

Goosebumps 2 - $80M

The Girl in the Spider's Web - $95M

Holmes & Watson - $155M

Spider-Verse - $230M

 

Total - $1,951M

 

Disney:

 

Star Wars - $80M

Coco - $25M

Black Panther - $200M

A Wrinkle in Time - $50M

Infinity War - $380M

Solo - $280M

Incredibles 2 - $240M

Ant-Man - $150M

Christopher Robin - $50M

Nutcracker - $55M

Wreck-it Ralph - $100M

Mary Poppins - $90M

 

Total - $1,700M

 

 

What do you want to tell us with that?

 

Sony won't win the Year, Disney, WB or Universal will.

I doubt FOX has a Chance same for Sony and Lionsgate and Paramount well they will probably gross less than half of #1, I think Paramount might gross just 1/3 of the #1 gross (Grosses less than a third of Uni and Disney in 2015, Disney in 2016, Disney and WB in 2017) So Chances are high it will happen again.

[JonathanLB]

3 hours ago, Chad Stevens said:

"This comment is totally inappropriate and offensive"

 

Is there a MOD here?

 

 

 

 

If YOU are offended by someone's else's opinion, that's your personal problem. You're an adult. Managing your emotions is your own job, not someone else's. I'm offended that you'd be offended by someone else having an opinion, frankly. Do you think the world should police opinions different from your own?

 

The movie is about a gay romance, is it wrong to call it a "gay movie"? I am not using the term in an offensive way, it's literally about a gay romance. That subject matter is not going to be everyone's cup of tea. To be honest, though, that wasn't the issue with the film for me at all. It certainly makes it something not in my wheelhouse, but it would have made no difference ultimately whether it was a straight romance or a gay one because the film bored me to tears. There is a solid HOUR of the movie before a single gay act (just a kiss), and I was so bored by that point I already hated the movie. It was a lot of pretentious conversation and drab dialogue. Sure, the acting was good, it was a nice pretty setting as well, but the movie did nothing for me personally. Other people clearly really enjoyed it, but chalk it up to "not my type of movie" that's all.