Weekend Thread | Estimates per DHD (p.15): J 19.75M, 12S 15.3M, DoT 14.7M, TP 12.1M, TGS 11.1M, P2 8.3M, TC 6.8M, TLJ 6.5M, I:TLK 5.9M, FMG 4.3M

[WrathOfHan]

TGS is going to be #1 on my most epic BO run ballot for the BOFFYs. It went from bomb to huge hit over the course of a couple of weeks.

[La Binoche]

41 minutes ago, bladels said:

Kinda disappointed with Call Me By Your Name's number. It had such high theater average when it opened with 4 theaters

 

have you seen it? $20m was always going to be the absolute ceiling for this one. 

[Webslinger]

Jumanji posts another excellent hold. Even though the reason is perfectly clear, it's still kinda astonishing to see a movie sit at #1 for three weeks after spending the preceding two weeks in second. Like Guardians of the Galaxy - which opened at #1, then returned to #1 for three weekends beginning in its fourth weekend - it missed the chance at a pretty epic #1 run thanks to the strength of the schedule in its first few weeks. With holds like the ones it has posted through January thus far, surpassing $400 million is now a given.

 

Solid debut for 12 Strong. It didn't have the massive hype of other War on Terror January releases, so a debut in line with that of 13 Hours is a minor win. I could see it having fairly strong legs if it connects with its target audience.

 

Den of Thieves raced well ahead of my paltry expectations. The small Saturday bump could be a discouraging sign for its longevity, but it's already a bigger success than most people expected it would be.

 

The Post held up nicely. It's going to need some Best Picture love to keep its chances at hitting $100 million alive, though.

 

The Greatest Showman continues to rewrite the stars (sorry - I was going to say "defy gravity," but then I figured that the musical pun should come from the actual source material ). I'm still astonished that the film has taken off as much as it has, but it's clearly speaking to audiences in ways that no one anticipated. I don't quite see the bullish $200+ million final projections yet, but it's still headed toward a huge total. I was going to say that I never thought this could be the movie to potentially put Grease's long-standing musical gross record in jeopardy, but then I looked at the BOM genre chart and saw, ahem, another user-triggering 2017 release at the top.

 

Great hold for Paddington 2. I hope it sticks around for a while, weak opening be damned.

 

The Commuter took a hit in the face of the two new R-rated action flicks. The lean appearance of the release schedule for the next couple weeks could help it to some small extent, but it's still going to be the lowest-performing PG-13-rated entry in Neeson's post-Taken action movie output by a significant margin.

 

Star Wars finally held up respectably and surpassed $600 million.

 

Insidious continues to crumble, but it's been a big winner against its small budget ever since its opening day.

 

Decent debut for Forever My Girl, I guess.

[filmlover]

4 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

TGS is going to be #1 on my most epic BO run ballot for the BOFFYs. It went from bomb to huge hit over the course of a couple of weeks.

And probably Most Soul-Crushing lmao.

[CoolioD1]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

Thank the movie gods that I, Tonya didn't go to Netflix.

Disagree!

[a2k]

COCO had an 18.2m OS weekend, so should add 35m+ more from current OS markets.

Should add 5m+ Dom and 35m+ in Japan for 655+35+5+35 = 730 WW at least.

Wouldn't rule out 750m WW.

[filmlover]

Is anyone even aware that a new Maze Runner film comes out next weekend? I'm predicting $24M for it but man does it feel like a long time has passed between it and the second movie (which was already something of an underperformer).

Edited January 21, 2018 by filmlover

[John Marston]

1 minute ago, filmlover said:

Is anyone even aware that a new Maze Runner film comes out next weekend? I'm predicting $24M for it but man does it feel like a long time has passed between it and the second movie (which was already something of an underperformer).

 

 

Doesnt matter. It's the last one. International openings seem decent though. Australia apparently is on par with th last 

[WrathOfHan]

Demo breakdowns (Deadline says 3% of K-12 and 16% of colleges are still out):

 

12 Strong:

 

55/45 gender split in favor of males

79% of the audience is over 25

6% of the audience is under 18, who gave it an A+

57% of the audience is men over 25

32% of the audience is women over 25 (think Deadline might've gotten the over 25 split off by 10%)

81% of the audience is positive on the film

 

Den of Thieves:

 

25% of the audience is black

25% of the audience is Hispanic

43% of the audience is men over 25

31% of the audience is women over 25
 

Forever My Girl will be gaining 500 theaters next weekend too.

Edited January 21, 2018 by WrathOfHan

[MrFanaticGuy34]

Wow, wow, wow! 😄😄😄

 

Star Wars: The Last Jedi has finally beaten Frozen, in terms of WW-gross. 😎

 

 

[iceni]

26 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

It’s interesting to watch the award films during this time.

 

Lady Bird, Darkest Hour, Shape of Water and Three Billboards have already done great getting over $30m before the big nominations. I Tonya is already half way there. The Post was the most expensive I think and that’ll end up with a big total. 

 

Shame about CMBYN expansion. 

 

So, what's the ceiling for I, TONYA?   $30-40 million?  

[filmlover]

5 minutes ago, iceni said:

 

So, what's the ceiling for I, TONYA?   $30-40 million?  

With a Best Picture nomination, definitely. Won't hurt that Janney is likely winning the Oscar too (if she wins at SAG tonight then that seals it for her).

[MaxAggressor]

Deadline's revised weekend estimate http://deadline.com/2018/01/den-of-thieves-12-strong-jumanji-welcome-to-the-jungle-weekend-box-office-1202262795/

 

1.) Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle  (SONY), 3,704 theaters (-145) / $4.85M Fri. (-19%) / $9.5M Sat. (+96%) / $5.68M Sun. (-40%) / 3-day: $19.75M to $20M(-29%) / Total cume: $316.7M / Wk 5

2.) 12 Strong (WB/ALC), 3,002 theaters / $5.6M Fri. / $6.8M Sat. (+21%) / $3.75M Sun. (-45%) /  3-day: $16.2M / Wk 1

3.) Den of Thieves (STX), 2,432 theaters / $5.65M Fri. / $6M Sat. (+7%) / $2.5M to $3M Sun. (-42% to 50%) / 3-day: $14.7M to $15M+ / Wk 1

4.) The Post (FOX/DW), 2,851 theaters (+32) / $3.5M Fri. (-41%) / $5.5M Sat. (+59%) / $3M (-45%) / 3-day: $12.1M (-37%) / Total: $45.19M / Wk 5

5.) The Greatest Showman  (FOX), 2,823 theaters (-115) / $3M Fri. (-2%) / $4.9M (+66%$) / $2.9M (-40%) / 3-day: $10.9M (-12%) / Total: $113.39M / Wk 5

6.) Paddington 2 (WB), 3,702 theaters / $1.785M Fri. (-26%) / 3-day: $8.3M(-25%) / $3.9M Sat. (+122%) / $2.5M Sun. (35%) / Total: $25M / Wk 2

7.) The Commuter (LG), 2,892 theaters / $2M Fri. (-55%) / $3.1M Sat. (+59%) / $1.7M Sun. (-45%) / 3-day: $6.7M (-50%) / Total: $25.8M / Wk 2

8.) Star Wars: The Last Jedi (DIS), 2,456 theaters (-634) / $1.6M  Fri. (-38%) / $3.158M Sat. (+95%) / $1.7M Sun. (-45%) / 3-day: $6.6M (-45%) / Total: $604.25 M / Wk 6

9.) Insidious: The Last Key (UNI), 2,546 theaters (-604) / $1.8M Fri. (-48%) / $2.7M Sat. (+55%) / $1.39M Sun. (50%) / 3-day: $5.96M (-52%) / Total: $58.7M / Wk 3

10.) Forever My Girl (RSA), 1,115 theaters / $1.46M Fri. / $1.8M Sat. (+24%) / $1M Sun. (-40%) / 3-day: $4.29M to $4.38M / Wk 1

[Caladbolg]

1 hour ago, titanic2187 said:

why are all studio are projecting higher sun-drop? more than 40% drop on sunday?

There's 2 big NFL games today, maybe that's why.

[John Marston]

BoxOfficeReport.com

 

@BORReport

 

 

Maze Runner: The Death Cure grossed an estimated $15.22M internationally this weekend, including a $10.01M debut in South Korea. #MazeRunner #TheDeathCure #BoxOffice @20thcenturyfox @MazeRunnerMovie

[Joel M]

Is the Hostile theatre count and PTA a typo? Doesn't make sense that it a has higher PTA in 5th weekend on 49 theatres than its OW in only 3 theatres.

[iceni]

5 minutes ago, Joel M said:

Is the Hostile theatre count and PTA a typo? Doesn't make sense that it a has higher PTA in 5th weekend on 49 theatres than its OW in only 3 theatres.

I'm looking at Box Office Mojo, and hmmmmmm....

[RichWS]

Maybe it wouldn't have made a difference, but the rollout of CMBYN has been quite strange. You finally go wide six weeks after the buzz peaked? It's been bugging me why they would do it so slowly.

Edited January 21, 2018 by RichWS

[WrathOfHan]

1 minute ago, RichWS said:

Maybe it wouldn't have made a difference, but the rollout of CMBYN has been quite strange. You finally go wide six weeks after the buzz peaked? It's been bugging me why they would do it so slowly.

Seriously, it's been a REALLY strange rollout and hurt its Oscar momentum too.

[WrathOfHan]

http://deadline.com/2018/01/darkest-hour-the-shape-of-water-call-me-by-your-name-specialty-box-office-1202265201/

 

Darkest Hour is now the highest grossing specialty film of the year ahead of The Big Sick. Still waiting for the full article with potential TCs for next week.