Weekend Thread | Estimates per DHD (p.15): J 19.75M, 12S 15.3M, DoT 14.7M, TP 12.1M, TGS 11.1M, P2 8.3M, TC 6.8M, TLJ 6.5M, I:TLK 5.9M, FMG 4.3M

[vc2002]

Just now, That One Guy said:

 

If only it had opened $17M higher

 

Sexy legs are sexy. Doesn't matter if it's a 6 foot model or a 5 foot girl next door.

[That One Girl]

13 minutes ago, vc2002 said:

 

Sexy legs are sexy. Doesn't matter if it's a 6 foot model or a 5 foot girl next door.

 

If it opened that high though with the same legs, then it’d gross around the same as Titanic  

[a2k]

3 hours ago, Barnack said:

Will it end up above all of them except BvS 873m ? maybe even BvS ?

 

 

If it adds 58 more for 375 dom then that takes it to 825 ww. Needs just below 50m more OS for 873 after it had a 32.6 OS weekend. So over BVS is a lock imo.

[weresweresweres]

5 hours ago, Barnack said:

Will it end up above all of them except BvS 873m ? maybe even BvS ?

 

 

Jumanji had 32.6 mln international weekend, and it wasn't released in Japan yet, 900 mln is much more possible than below BvS. It needs 891 to be second best grossing Sony movie ever.

[IronJimbo]

7 hours ago, vc2002 said:

 

Sexy legs are sexy. Doesn't matter if it's a 6 foot model or a 5 foot girl next door.

or 10 foot

[a2k]

1 hour ago, IronJimbo said:

or 10 foot

with blue skin

[MaxAggressor]

 

 

[a2k]

7	(3)	The Commuter	Lionsgate	$6,603,842	-52%	2,892	$2,283	$25,627,371	2
8	(6)	Star Wars Ep. VIII: The Las…	Walt Disney	$6,555,435	-45%	2,456	$2,669	$604,273,911	6
9	(5)	Insidious: The Last Key	Universal	$5,874,055	-53%	2,546	$2,307	$58,658,320	3
10	new	Forever My Girl	Roadside Attractions	$4,245,490		1,114	$3,811	$4,245,490	1
11	(8)	Proud Mary	Sony Pictures	$3,650,000	-63%	2,125	$1,718	$16,931,604	2
12	(20)	Phantom Thread	Focus Features	$3,246,720	+183%	897	$3,620	$6,059,449	4
13	(13)	I, Tonya	Neon	$3,023,416	-10%	799	$3,784	$14,672,136	7
14	(9)	Pitch Perfect 3	Universal	$3,022,185	-50%	1,772	$1,706	$100,535,230	5
15	(10)	Darkest Hour	Focus Features	$2,729,810	-39%	1,340	$2,037	$40,792,987	9

Edited January 22, 2018 by a2knet

[MaxAggressor]

 

[Fancyarcher]

 

[a2k]

Jumanji is keeping pace with NATM over the weekends and with Disc Tuesday pushing the Mon-Thu up %-wise.

NATM fell 30% for 12m over the same period and added 46m more to it's run. That gives Jumanji 75m more for 391.5m.

Edited January 22, 2018 by a2knet

[MaxAggressor]

 

[Barnack]

That sound like really great hold, specially before any Oscar help.... Depending on how typical hold look like when you gain 50% theater at those theater count level.

 

 

[Harpospoke]

On 1/21/2018 at 12:47 PM, wildphantom said:

Just saw The Post. 

This movie should be doing well over $100 million in the states. It’s a rollicking good Spielberg film and couldn’t be much more cathartic for the shit going on right now. 

Here’s hoping it gets some big nods on Tuesday to convince people to get off their asses and see it. 

That's gotta be part of the problem.   Every person I've seen post about it here brings up something about how it's "important", "relevant to the times we live in", or some other politically motivated statement.

 

Not hard to see who it's made for and that cuts your audience in half.    At least half because a lot of people aren't interested in going to the movies for a political message even if they agree with it.   

 

Hard pass.

 

[MaxAggressor]

 

 

[CJohn]

@MCKillswitch123 THE COMMUTER

 

IT OUTOPENED DUNKIRK AND MURDER ON ORIENT EXPRESS (40.332 vs 40.448 vs 40.714 ). IT NEARLY DOUBLED NON-STOP's OPENING (24.636).

 

http://www.ica-ip.pt/fotos/downloads/ranking_fds_18_a_21_janeiro_2018_210515a65c52f6a196.pdf

[MCKillswitch123]

13 minutes ago, CJohn said:

@MCKillswitch123 THE COMMUTER

 

IT OUTOPENED DUNKIRK AND MURDER ON ORIENT EXPRESS (40.332 vs 40.448 vs 40.714 ). IR NEARLY DOUBLED NON-STOP's OPENING (24.636).

 

http://www.ica-ip.pt/fotos/downloads/ranking_fds_18_a_21_janeiro_2018_210515a65c52f6a196.pdf

Well, the massive marketing push that it got must've helped. I saw ads for it all the Goddamn time on TV, in almost every single channel. In any case, the Age of Neeson blooms upon us. Better times await, my friend.

 

Also, is it just me or did Pitch Perfect 3 bomb like no one's business?

[Chad Stevens]

Who really knows numbers around here? 

 

Can anyone tell me if Jumanji has a shot at passing TLJ OS?

 

What would have to happen and is it possible?

 

Thanks

[hw64]

4 minutes ago, Chad Stevens said:

Who really knows numbers around here? 

 

Can anyone tell me if Jumanji has a shot at passing TLJ OS?

 

What would have to happen and is it possible?

 

Thanks

Completely impossible. Would have to drop 20% week on week every single week for the rest of its run to even equal The Last Jedi's total, without Japan that is.

 

Without putting too much work into this, it's pretty clear that Jumanji's overseas total will be under $550m.

[Barnack]

44 minutes ago, Harpospoke said:

That's gotta be part of the problem.   Every person I've seen post about it here brings up something about how it's "important", "relevant to the times we live in", or some other politically motivated statement.

 

Not hard to see who it's made for and that cuts your audience in half.    At least half because a lot of people aren't interested in going to the movies for a political message even if they agree with it.   

 

Hard pass.

You could be right for a movie that target old white people, but in general that cutting in half your audience does not hold up that much.

 

Specially for a movie like The Post or All the president men, people are mostly for a solid and free press, Trumps supporter that would disagree on that question are bit on the extreme fringe and far from 50% of the US + Canada population. It is not really a hot issues that does not make overall consensus.

 

In the general case

 

Before Trump election, there was around 248m moviegoers in the domestic market, young, black, latinos are over represented in it, only 51% of the ticket are bought by white people.

https://www.mpaa.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/2016-Theatrical-Market-Statistics-Report-2.pdf

 

And Young are vastly over represented.

 

Ticket sold

white   : 51%

hispanic: 21%

black   : 14%

asians  : 14%

 

Ticket sold By age group:

18-24: 12%

25-39: 23%

40-49: 13%

50-59: 13%

60+  : 13%

 

Trump support by age group and ethnics group in the 2016 election:

 

18-24: 35%

25-29: 39%

30-39: 40%

40-49: 50%

50-64: 53%

65+  : 53%

 

White:   58%

Black :   8%

Hispanic:29%

Asian:   29%

 

Now if Canadians for the most part really do not care (only 13% of Canadian like Trump presidency and it is just a foreign country affair) and if they are around 10% of those 250m movie goers, that leave us 225m in the US and say around 10b.

 

Say if it we would have around 10b of domestic box office from the US was by age:

18-24: 1.2b around 0.42b from Trump supporter age pro-rata.

25-39: 2.3b around 0.92b from Trump supporter age pro-rata.

40-49: 1.3b around 0.65b from Trump supporter age pro-rata.

50+  : 2.6b around 1.378b from Trump supporter age pro-rata.

 

That is 3.388 billion from Trump supporters vs 4.012b among americans adult if we adjust by age or 46% not 50%.

 

Adjust by ethnicity of the tickey buyer.

 

That 7.4b box office was from:

white   : 3.774b that 2.18892b from Trump voters

hispanic: 1.554b that 0.45066b from trump voters

black   : 1.036b that 0.08288b from trump voters

asians  : 1.036b that 0.30044b from trump voters

 

So that 7.4b among american adult end up being

3.03b from trump voters vs 4.3771 for non Trump voters or just 41%.

 

Now if we add the 17 or less and Canadian, it probably get closer to 35% vs 65%

 

 

And that is using peak Trump + republican no matter what support, December 2017 Trump numbers were

 

Approve of Trump

18-34: 26%

35-49: 33%

50-64: 42%

65+  : 41%

 

Using those number instead of those who voted for the republican candidate, we would probably end up more 20-25% vs 75-80%

 

There is part of the reason I imagine we saw no down effect for the very openly and loudly anti-Trump Disney in general or MCU title and that movie like Patriot Day flopped, Trump strong base is not a big portion of the domestic box office and the vast majority of people probably do not follow or mind stuff like that thatmuch, the very vocal always triggered by cultural product Breitbart crowd is not necessarily representative.

Edited January 22, 2018 by Barnack