Weekend Estimates (Page 16 if you care): Jumanji 10.9M | Maze Runner 10.5M | Winchester 9.3M | Showman 7.7M | The Post 5.3M | Hostiles 5.2M

[AniNate]

I'm not real high on either of them right now. Certainly doesn't look like anything will be able to compete with the inexplicable popularity of BATB last year. 

 

 

Edited February 3, 2018 by tribefan695

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

WiT and maybe RPO have potential. Eveything else is going to be pretty unexciting. 

Love Simon is coming for that next Wonder-esque feel-good crowd-pleasing hit! And Red Sparrow could very well be JLaw's Salt or Lucy (though it'll probably settle for numbers in the $80-90M range).

[WrathOfHan]

Fox wouldn't be lifting Red Sparrow's embargo two weeks before release and giving it a Superbowl spot if they thought it was shit. It's going to breakout.

Edited February 3, 2018 by WrathOfHan

[Johnny Tran]

I've been away. What is the latest BP tracking?  I saw a headline stating it's killing in presales

[WrathOfHan]

I think Red Sparrow will win its OW. This is what I have Black Panther's first three weekends doing:

 

150M (180M 4 day)

54M (-64% from 3 day/-70% from 4 day)

27M (-50%)

 

Black Panther is going to be huge, but let's not forget that it's an MCU movie opening on a holiday weekend. I don't think it's likely for the second weekend to fall below 60% (SMH dropped over 62% back in the summer with great WOM). Plus, Game Night is tracking at 15-20M right now, and if WB's early screenings on Wednesday go well, I see it passing 20M with ease. The comedy marketing is fucking STARVING right now. Annihilation is also tracking in the low-teens. This won't have the market to itself for three weeks like Deadpool did. The absolute worst I see Red Sparrow opening is 20M, and that's if reviews are lukewarm. If they're strong (certified fresh level), I think 25M is the floor with a good shot at 30M.

Edited February 3, 2018 by WrathOfHan

[DAJK]

About to see 12 Strong. Would check out Hostiles, but it starts too late and I work in the morning. Plus my mum kinda likes Hemsworth and my friends are outta town

[MrGlass2]

14 minutes ago, Johnny Tran said:

I've been away. What is the latest BP tracking?  I saw a headline stating it's killing in presales

$150M, highest superhero presales ever.

[La Binoche]

I expected a lower Cinemascore than B- for Winchester. 
That's decent for a horror movie. 

[Eric the Minion]

Never doubt the Powah of the Gays. They're gonna turn Love, Simon into a WOM sensation, and I'll be proud to say I was the first to call it...

 

Spoiler

Also, join my club.

 

 

[WrathOfHan]

Trailer stalkers @Poe Blankeron

 

7:

Annihilation (Blade Runner, The Foreigner, Happy Death Day, All the Money in the World, Downsizing, Molly’s Game, The Commuter)

 

6:

Red Sparrow (Kingsman: The Golden Circle, Blade Runner 2049, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, The Commuter, I, Tonya, The Post)

 

5:

Fifty Shades Freed (Murder on the Orient Express, Lady Bird, All the Money in the World, Molly’s Game, I, Tonya)

 

4:

The 15:17 to Paris (Molly’s Game, The Commuter, I, Tonya, The Post)

Alpha (Hitman’s Bodyguard, Geostorm, Thor: Ragnarok, Downsizing)

Black Panther (Valerian, The Dark Tower, Thor: Ragnarok, All the Money in the World)

Death Wish (Detroit, It, American Assassin, The Commuter)

Pacific Rim: Uprising (Blade Runner, Geostorm, Thank You for Your Service, Thor: Ragnarok)

Ready Player One (It, Blade Runner 2049, Justice League, Star Wars: The Last Jedi)

 

3:

Early Man (Coco, Wonder, The Greatest Showman)

Sherlock Gnomes (Coco, Wonder, The Greatest Showman)

Sicario 2: Soldado (All the Money in the World, Molly’s Game, The Commuter)

Winchester (Suburbicon, Molly’s Game, The Commuter)

A Wrinkle in Time (Valerian, Murder on the Orient Express, Coco)

 

2:

Avengers: Infinity War (Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Downsizing)

Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool (All the Money in the World, Darkest Hour)

Game Night (Downsizing, I, Tonya)

Gringo (Molly’s Game, The Commuter)

Incredibles 2 (Coco, Star Wars: The Last Jedi)

Isle of Dogs (Ninjago, Downsizing)

Love, Simon (The Greatest Showman, The Post)

Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again (The Greatest Showman, The Post)

Peter Rabbit (Coco, The Greatest Showman)

Polaroid (Wind River, mother!)

A Quiet Place (Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Downsizing)

Tomb Raider (Geostorm, Justice League)

Untitled Deadpool Sequel (Justice League, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

 

1:

Spoiler

 

7 Days in Entebbe (Darkest Hour)

Acrimony (The Commuter)

Alita: Battle Angel (Star Wars: The Last Jedi)

Blockers (Downsizing)

The Current War (Wind River)

Duck Duck Goose (Ninjago)

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (Star Wars: The Last Jedi)

Mortal Engines (The Commuter)

The New Mutants (Thor: Ragnarok)

The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (The Greatest Showman)

Ocean’s 8 (The Greatest Showman)

The Party (Lady Bird)

Sgt. Stubby: An American Hero (Wonder)

Smallfoot (Coco)

Super Troopers 2 (Kingsman)

Tully (The Post)

 

 

[tonytr87]

1 hour ago, WrathOfHan said:

Fox wouldn't be lifting Red Sparrow's embargo two weeks before release and giving it a Superbowl spot if they thought it was shit. It's going to breakout.

Francis Lawrence is underrated. It'll probably be decent at least

[tonytr87]

2 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

Kind of a moot point to speculate since it never stood any chance at all at a BP nom, unless it were a different film. In which case it wouldn't be doing what it is at the box office.

 

That's not entirely true. If it were a better movie that delved deeper into the reality of P.T. Barnum's life it could have been in the running. There was definitely room to make a cheerful musical while also presenting Barnum as a flawed character. Don't forget friggin Extreme Loud and Incredibly Close was nominated. 

 

Regardless, Barnum isn't the reason it's not in the conversation. It's a mess of a movie. 

[filmlover]

30 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Trailer stalkers @Poe Blankeron

 

7:

Annihilation (Blade Runner, The Foreigner, Happy Death Day, All the Money in the World, Downsizing, Molly’s Game, The Commuter)

 

6:

Red Sparrow (Kingsman: The Golden Circle, Blade Runner 2049, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, The Commuter, I, Tonya, The Post)

 

5:

Fifty Shades Freed (Murder on the Orient Express, Lady Bird, All the Money in the World, Molly’s Game, I, Tonya)

 

4:

The 15:17 to Paris (Molly’s Game, The Commuter, I, Tonya, The Post)

Alpha (Hitman’s Bodyguard, Geostorm, Thor: Ragnarok, Downsizing)

Black Panther (Valerian, The Dark Tower, Thor: Ragnarok, All the Money in the World)

Death Wish (Detroit, It, American Assassin, The Commuter)

Pacific Rim: Uprising (Blade Runner, Geostorm, Thank You for Your Service, Thor: Ragnarok)

Ready Player One (It, Blade Runner 2049, Justice League, Star Wars: The Last Jedi)

 

3:

Early Man (Coco, Wonder, The Greatest Showman)

Sherlock Gnomes (Coco, Wonder, The Greatest Showman)

Sicario 2: Soldado (All the Money in the World, Molly’s Game, The Commuter)

Winchester (Suburbicon, Molly’s Game, The Commuter)

A Wrinkle in Time (Valerian, Murder on the Orient Express, Coco)

 

2:

Avengers: Infinity War (Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Downsizing)

Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool (All the Money in the World, Darkest Hour)

Game Night (Downsizing, I, Tonya)

Gringo (Molly’s Game, The Commuter)

Incredibles 2 (Coco, Star Wars: The Last Jedi)

Isle of Dogs (Ninjago, Downsizing)

Love, Simon (The Greatest Showman, The Post)

Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again (The Greatest Showman, The Post)

Peter Rabbit (Coco, The Greatest Showman)

Polaroid (Wind River, mother!)

A Quiet Place (Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Downsizing)

Tomb Raider (Geostorm, Justice League)

Untitled Deadpool Sequel (Justice League, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

 

1:

  Reveal hidden contents

 

7 Days in Entebbe (Darkest Hour)

Acrimony (The Commuter)

Alita: Battle Angel (Star Wars: The Last Jedi)

Blockers (Downsizing)

The Current War (Wind River)

Duck Duck Goose (Ninjago)

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (Star Wars: The Last Jedi)

Mortal Engines (The Commuter)

The New Mutants (Thor: Ragnarok)

The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (The Greatest Showman)

Ocean’s 8 (The Greatest Showman)

The Party (Lady Bird)

Sgt. Stubby: An American Hero (Wonder)

Smallfoot (Coco)

Super Troopers 2 (Kingsman)

Tully (The Post)

 

 

Be blessed you've only gotten Fifty Shades Freed 5 times. I've gotten it at least twice as much by now.

[filmlover]

Anyway, predictions for next week:

 

Fifty Shades Freed: $36M

Peter Rabbit: $29M

The 15:17 to Paris: $9M

[La Binoche]

1..) Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle  (SONY), 3,553 theaters (-201) / $2.8M Fri (-24%)/3-day: $11M (-32%)/Total:$352.6M/ Wk 7

2..) Maze Runner: Death Cure (FOX), 3,793 theaters (+6) / $3M Fri (-64%)/3-day: $9.8M (-59%) /Total: $39.4M/Wk 2

3..) Winchester (CBS), 2,480 theaters  / $3.6M Fri (includes $615K previews)/3-day: $8.9M /Wk 1

4..) The Greatest Showman  (FOX), 2,588 theaters (-75) / $2.3M Fri (-8%) / 3-day: $7.9M (-17%)/Total: $137.8M/Wk 7

5..) Hostiles (EST), 2,934 theaters (+118) / $1.7M  Fri (-48%) /3-day:$5.5M (-45%)/Total: $21.2M/Wk 7

6..) The Post  (FOX/DW), 2,462 theaters (-178) / $1.6M  Fri (-34%) /3-day:$5.2M (-43%)/Total: $67.1M/Wk 7

7..) 12 Strong (WB/ALC), 2,918 theaters (-100) / $1.5M Fri (-35%)/3-day: $5.1M(-40%) /Total: $37.7M/Wk 3

8..) Den of Thieves (STX), 2,112 theaters (-320)/ $1.4M Fri (-39%)/3-day: $4.7M (-45%) /Total: $36.3M/Wk 3

9..) The Shape of Water  (FSL), 2,341 theaters (+487)  / $1.3M Fri (-19%) /3-day: $4M (-31%)/Total: $44.4M/Wk 10

10..) Three Billboards…  (FSL), 1,726 theaters (+269)  / $905K Fri (-9%) /3-day: $3M (-22%)/Total: $41.7M/Wk 13

 

[La Binoche]

Notables:

Neon

I, Tonya  (NEON/30), 1,450 theaters (+490) / $762K  Fri (-10%)/3-day: $2.4M (-21%)/Total: $22.5M/Wk 9

Darkest Hour (FOC), 1,486 theaters (+153)/ $710K Fri (-6%) /3-day: $2.1M (-27%)/Total: $48.5M/ Wk 11

Phantom Thread  (FOC), 1,186 theaters (+165) / $630K Fri (-22%)/3-day: $1.9M (-36%)/Total: $13.9M/Wk 6

Lady Bird (A24), 1,109 theaters (-63)/ $372K  (-24%) Fri/3-day: $1.25M(-34%)/Total: $43.6M/ Wk 14

 

Call Me By Your Name (SPC), 581 theaters (-234)/ $247K  (-28%) Fri/3-day: $800k (-38%)/Total: $12.7M/ Wk 11

A Fantastic Woman (SPC), 5 theaters/ $18K   Fri/PTA: $10,3K /3-day: $52k / Wk 1

[aabattery]

Uncrumble in the Jungle.

[Deathlife]

Jumanji is still going?....what the heck?

 

[DAJK]

12 Strong was... surprisingly decent. Actors were all great, action looked good for a 35M film and I was pretty engaged. Nothing id go out of my way to watch again, but a solid addition to what's been a pretty good January

[bladels]

1 hour ago, La Binoche said:

Notables:

Neon

I, Tonya  (NEON/30), 1,450 theaters (+490) / $762K  Fri (-10%)/3-day: $2.4M (-21%)/Total: $22.5M/Wk 9

Darkest Hour (FOC), 1,486 theaters (+153)/ $710K Fri (-6%) /3-day: $2.1M (-27%)/Total: $48.5M/ Wk 11

Phantom Thread  (FOC), 1,186 theaters (+165) / $630K Fri (-22%)/3-day: $1.9M (-36%)/Total: $13.9M/Wk 6

Lady Bird (A24), 1,109 theaters (-63)/ $372K  (-24%) Fri/3-day: $1.25M(-34%)/Total: $43.6M/ Wk 14

 

Call Me By Your Name (SPC), 581 theaters (-234)/ $247K  (-28%) Fri/3-day: $800k (-38%)/Total: $12.7M/ Wk 11

A Fantastic Woman (SPC), 5 theaters/ $18K   Fri/PTA: $10,3K /3-day: $52k / Wk 1

Dam it Call Me By Your Name. Such a beautiful story that so few people get to see.

I feel like Sony screwed up its expansion somehow