BLACK PANTHER WEEKEND THREAD | Current Estimates - 202.4M 3-day / 242.6M 4-day | Record 40.167 Monday; more than TFA!

[Taruseth]

Just now, RandomYojimbo said:

 

 I've never heard of Winter starting the 1st. 21st of Dec to Mar. 20th is how I know it.

That is based if you mean the Astronomical one (21st December to 20th March) or the Meteorological one (1st December to 28th/29th February)

[Thrylos 7]

14 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

eh.. the difference between 400 and 600 doesn't matter? I never said it won't be a success.

 

Who is expecting bp to do 600 million ?

[The Fast and the Furiosa]

38 minutes ago, baumer said:

I think there has to be some allowance for it to be very front loaded.  The hype to see this is insane.  So even if it doesn't stay flat Sunday, but drops by 10%, we're still looking at monster numbers.

 

Just looked back on other President's Day weekend numbers from years past and Deadpool is definitely an anomaly.  Most other films fall more than 15% on Sunday.  So tough to say hat BP will do.  

Yeah, Deadpool had Valentine’s Day boosting the Sunday gross. However, BP should have a good Sunday regardless, between a 15% and 20% drop given the Monday holiday. 

[Valonqar]

So is the number in the title correct? No new lower numbers somewhere in the past 30-40 pages for heart attacks?

 

That's awesome! 

[Asyulus]

Edit your guesses here. Deadline pushed into February 23, 2018. You can join if you do not have a prediction yet.

[a2k]

57 minutes ago, the beast said:

What should the Sunday drop and Monday drop for Black Panther be around % wise?

Guessing Sunday drop will be close to 15%. Was thinking 20% but read  a post here that post Church, a good portion of African American audience might head to movies. Deadpool increased 0.2% but that was due to VD.

 

On President's Day Monday Deadpool dropped 55%+ but again that was coming off an inflated Sunday. BP should drop less than 50%. If you see the Sat to Mon drop for Deadpool it looks like BP will drop 40-45% on Monday. If Sunday is ultra strong than 45-50% maybe.

[a2k]

11 minutes ago, Thrylos 7 said:

Who is expecting bp to do 600 million ?

after 25 previews there were some reactions around beating ta.

i think 450-475 is a conservative but realistic target. 2.40-2.55x the 3-day.

(who knew that one day for a non-Avengers cbm, 450 would be conservative?)

[Valonqar]

14 minutes ago, Thrylos 7 said:

Who is expecting bp to do 600 million ?

I'm expecting 500M. This opening + no reason why it wouldn't hold better than AoU and CW + no direct competition. I think it could make BatB numbers.

[Lordmandeep]

Saturday should be around 60 million and Sunday around 51 53 million.

[Lordmandeep]

I think infinity wars will outopen this war but can it match it's legs

[grey ghost]

33 minutes ago, Thrylos 7 said:

Who is expecting bp to do 600 million ?

Every movie that made over 220 m for the 4-day made over 600 m, so BP has a shot.

 

Over 550 m looks really good.

[Darth Lehnsherr]

Not sure Black Panther's Opening Weekend estimates have really sunk in yet for me. It's insane to know that this film is gonna probably be the 3rd (maybe even 2nd) highest comic book Opening Weekend of all time and with decent legs become the 3rd highest grossing comic book film in North America. 

 

I just go back to this video from October 2014 which was after the Black Panther film was finally announced and it was when Chadwick Boseman was announced as playing said character for Captain America: Civil War. On that stage we didn't know it yet but we saw the two current leads of the MCU and the one that will be the future lead post-Avengers 4. 

 

 

Funny you can hear Kristian Harloff say "great casting!" once Boseman's name was announced

[RandomCat]

41 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

That is based if you mean the Astronomical one (21st December to 20th March) or the Meteorological one (1st December to 28th/29th February)

Astronomical is the one I've been taught, and know. 

[grey ghost]

Very rough estimate but if all black people boycotted BP for some weird reason it would still be looking at Thor Ragnarok numbers DOM.

 

The black audience pushed it to Avenger franchise numbers.

[grey ghost]

15 minutes ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

Not sure Black Panther's Opening Weekend estimates have really sunk in yet for me. It's insane to know that this film is gonna probably be the 3rd (maybe even 2nd) highest comic book Opening Weekend of all time and with decent legs become the 3rd highest grossing comic book film in North America. 

 

 

2nd biggest CBM DOM is also possible. 

[filmlover]

Poor Early Man. Wouldn't have done very well anywhere but Lionsgate should've moved it to next weekend when it became clear Black Panther was gonna swallow up everything in its path whole.

[WrathOfHan]

lmao Early Man

How the fuck is 15:17 having good legs?

Edited February 17, 2018 by WrathOfHan

[filmlover]

Predictions for next weekend:

 

Game Night: $16M

Annihilation: $11M

Every Day: ? A dud, needless to say

[StevenG]

40 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

Very rough estimate but if all black people boycotted BP for some weird reason it would still be looking at Thor Ragnarok numbers DOM.

 

The black audience pushed it to Avenger franchise numbers.

Who would have thought that BP would be the one Avenger that could definitely become the Iron Man of the MCU's next universe-spanning arc (if Downey Jr doesn't do any more IMs)...

 

Also...is anyone else as intrigued as I am about the OW potential for Captain Marvel and Ant-Man 2? This BP OW certainly shifts my expectations; I know that Marvel will do something that makes CM and AM2 must-see events too, especially considering that it would be AWESOME if the next "phase" of Avengers films is led by a black man and a woman (and potentially another woman in Wasp if Ant-Man 2 also breaks out)...

[That One Girl]

7 hours ago, aabattery said:

If it weren't for AWIT, Disney could've had three films in a row over 500M.

 

Let’s not count it out yet though