Jurassic World: Dominion | June 10 2022 | 6th Most Profitable Movie of 2023

[Bigscrubnus]

Even with AMC crashing, I think that JWD is going to beat DS:MoM. 
 

Probably just my fanboyism showing, but I have a feeling it’ll be the second highest grosser this year after avatar 2.

[Brainbug]

10 minutes ago, Bigscrubnus said:

Even with AMC crashing, I think that JWD is going to beat DS:MoM. 
 

Probably just my fanboyism showing, but I have a feeling it’ll be the second highest grosser this year after avatar 2.

 

Anticipated Marvel movies have had incredibly strong presales for quite some years now. It was always expected that Doctor Strange 2 will deliver very strong numbers there because Marvel has an extremely rabid and big fanbase (similar to Star Wars) that basically guarantees big presales for most of their movies. In contrast, these kind of presales should not be expected for Jurassic World Dominion, as that film and the franchise as a whole depends less on presales and more on walk-ups.

 

And yes, i also see JWD as the clear Number 2 worldwide and DOM for 2022 behind Avatar 2. Though im as much of a fanboy as you, so i cant physically post any kind of pessimistic box office scenario for this film lol.

[SupermanLego]

18 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

Anticipated Marvel movies have had incredibly strong presales for quite some years now. It was always expected that Doctor Strange 2 will deliver very strong numbers there because Marvel has an extremely rabid and big fanbase (similar to Star Wars) that basically guarantees big presales for most of their movies. In contrast, these kind of presales should not be expected for Jurassic World Dominion, as that film and the franchise as a whole depends less on presales and more on walk-ups.

 

And yes, i also see JWD as the clear Number 2 worldwide and DOM for 2022 behind Avatar 2. Though im as much of a fanboy as you, so i cant physically post any kind of pessimistic box office scenario for this film lol.

JW is going to Make more DOM and International than DS2 ?

[Brainbug]

10 minutes ago, SupermanLego said:

JW is going to Make more DOM and International than DS2 ?

 

Both is possible and id personally say its likely. Is see Doctor Strange at 490-530M DOM and 1,2B-1,3B worlwide. Dominion has a good shot at matching or surpassing these numbers. Id say DS has a better shot at potentially outgrossing JW in the US and Canada, but since i cant see it grossing less worldwide than Fallen Kingdom (1,3B) - barring a horrendous reception by the GA - Dominion in my opinion is the Number 2 behind Avatar for the year.

[XXR & Friends]

5 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

Both is possible and id personally say its likely. Is see Doctor Strange at 490-530M DOM and 1,2B-1,3B worlwide. Dominion has a good shot at matching or surpassing these numbers. Id say DS has a better shot at potentially outgrossing JW in the US and Canada, but since i cant see it grossing less worldwide than Fallen Kingdom (1,3B) - barring a horrendous reception by the GA - Dominion in my opinion is the Number 2 behind Avatar for the year.

I’m having a harder time predicting JWD than I would most films. Does a bad taste still linger from FK or will people rehash their love for the series ala JW1? 
 

I feel good about $450M minimum for it domestically, and $650M OS-C. But what’s the maximum though? I’m thinking it’s about $700M DOM and $950M OS-C. 
 

As for China, anything from $250M to $450M wouldn’t surprise me.

 

[ZeeSoh]

27 minutes ago, SupermanLego said:

JW is going to Make more DOM and International than DS2 ?

If DS had China then there might have been a chance that it could have beaten JW3. But DS wont have China and JW3 will likely make big bucks there. 

[Brainbug]

7 minutes ago, KnucklesXXR said:

I’m having a harder time predicting JWD than I would most films. Does a bad taste still linger from FK or will people rehash their love for the series ala JW1? 
 

I feel good about $450M minimum for it domestically, and $650M OS-C. But what’s the maximum though? I’m thinking it’s about $700M DOM and $950M OS-C. 
 

As for China, anything from $250M to $450M wouldn’t surprise me.

 

 

I really like that 700M DOM number ... of yes i appreciate it.

 

Though seriously, i think if the film delivers and is liked by the GA, i cant see it grossing less than 500M Domestic. However i also have a hard time seeing it topping Jurassic Worlds 652M. While i do believe in a bigger OW than 208M (otherwise i woudnt have created my club lol), i would expect shorter legs simply because its the 2nd sequel in the JW series.

 

OS is way harder for me. China is a big unknown, i totally agree that it could do something like 250M (range of Fallen Kingdom i believe) or explode there to 300M+. The rest of the OS markets i would expect to atleast come near the numbers of Fallen Kingdom and that would be exactly your number of roughly 650M. Once again, i think more than for example a hyped Marvel movie like Doctor Strange, Dominions numbers will be very dependent on the reception. But for the OS numbers in particular, i think Fallen Kingdoms numbers are a fair target.

Edited April 6, 2022 by Brainbug

[european1992]

I watched The Lost City last night and out of all the trailers, the crowd seemed most interested in this one. Doctor Strange had zero reactions.

[Bigscrubnus]

It’s frustrating to watch people underestimate this movie so badly (mostly in the box office subreddit). I get the internet hates these films, but the fact that people haven’t learned their lessons from underestimating the first two astounds me.

I even have found several articles claiming itll fail to break a billion. Mostly from really dumb places like fandomwire.

 

I don’t see how you can look at all the data and go “the audience clearly hates these movies”

[Bigscrubnus]

5 minutes ago, european1992 said:

I watched The Lost City last night and out of all the trailers, the crowd seemed most interested in this one. Doctor Strange had zero reactions.

I’ve seen tons of stories like this on various websites. People went crazy for the trailer

[Brainbug]

7 minutes ago, Bigscrubnus said:

It’s frustrating to watch people underestimate this movie so badly (mostly in the box office subreddit). I get the internet hates these films, but the fact that people haven’t learned their lessons from underestimating the first two astounds me.

I even have found several articles claiming itll fail to break a billion. Mostly from really dumb places like fandomwire.

 

I don’t see how you can look at all the data and go “the audience clearly hates these movies”

 

There will always be some people who want certain movies to fail. I personally dont know why the Jurassic World movies indeed seem to get a bit more hate than other franchises, but honestly, who cares in the end. Third time is the charme and at least here on BOT, i do think a lot more people think Dominion will do well compared to the times before the releases of both JW and JW:FK.

 

[SupermanLego]

 

15 minutes ago, Bigscrubnus said:

It’s frustrating to watch people underestimate this movie so badly (mostly in the box office subreddit). I get the internet hates these films, but the fact that people haven’t learned their lessons from underestimating the first two astounds me.

I even have found several articles claiming itll fail to break a billion. Mostly from really dumb places like fandomwire.

 

I don’t see how you can look at all the data and go “the audience clearly hates these movies”

The box office sub is just an MCU circle jerk club.

Edited April 6, 2022 by SupermanLego

[Bigscrubnus]

1 hour ago, SupermanLego said:

 

The box office sub is just an MCU circle jerk club.

Seriously, the sub is nothing but marvel half the time. It’s honestly like, you guys know other franchises exist, right?

 

for people who want to discuss things non superhero related there is a lot less there.

[ThomasNicole]

4 hours ago, Bigscrubnus said:

Even with AMC crashing, I think that JWD is going to beat DS:MoM. 
 

Probably just my fanboyism showing, but I have a feeling it’ll be the second highest grosser this year after avatar 2.

of course it will beat DS2, this can get 250-300M from China alone

 

DS2 likely won´t be released there, so...

Edited April 7, 2022 by ThomasNicole

[EmpireCity]

18 hours ago, SupermanLego said:

JW is going to Make more DOM and International than DS2 ?

 

Yes.  

[CJohn]

JW3 is not winning. DS2 is going for 1.5B WW. 

[Brainbug]

12 minutes ago, CJohn said:

JW3 is not winning. DS2 is going for 1.5B WW. 

 

Nope. Without China, DS has no chance at 1,5B.

[hw64]

2 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

Nope. Without China, DS has no chance at 1,5B.

Even if were to be the case, a well-received Jurassic World 3 should be aiming for the same mark, and it has an upside potential that's well beyond the reach of Doctor Strange 2 (I could see up to $1.8b).

[Brainbug]

2 minutes ago, hw64 said:

Even if were to be the case, a well-received Jurassic World 3 should be aiming for the same mark, and it has an upside potential that's well beyond the reach of Doctor Strange 2 (I could see up to $1.8b).

 

I think JW3 has a good chance at topping 1,5B as well. Any higher than that is very difficult though, even if were factoring in that ticket prices are much higher now. For 1,8B it would definetly need a JW-style run in the US and Canada as well as a massive China breakout.

 

Not impossible, but unlikely.

[charlie Jatinder]

On 2/17/2022 at 5:42 PM, Brainbug said:

(and i mean pure trilogys, not something like counting the first 3 out of the 4 Avengers)

what do you mean there are 4 Avengers films? 🙄

there are only 3.

Assemble
Infinity War
Endgame