Weekend Thread: Weekend estimates pg 38...BP 41.14....WIT 33.31

[Fancyarcher]

4 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Welp, so much from my paragraph testimony yesterday. AWIT not looking so hot. Ay ay ay. And Red Sparrow dropping more in the lines of what I thought....

 

Tbh I still would give it a smaaaaaaall 100M chance, but I doubt it at this point, unless it has monster holds from here on out. No family competition, sure, but I think that the not too great wom will counter that. Tomorrowland V2, here we go.

 

Great for BP, though.

AWIT has a considerably smaller budget then Tomorrowland though, so it's not the most apt of comparison. I don't think it's making 100m however. WOM seems quite mixed. 

Edited March 10, 2018 by Fancyarcher

[MovieMan89]

The MT performance for WiT was quite bizarre. A family film that had that big of a lead as it did yesterday should have had no problem winning the day by several mil. 

[MCKillswitch123]

Just now, Fancyarcher said:

AWIT has a considerably smaller budget then Tomorrowland, so it's not really the most apt of comparisons. I don't think it's making 100m however. WOM seems quite mixed. 

I mean in terms of the DOM performance. Similar OW (though Tomorrowland shot higher up w/the 4-day opening), likely similar DOM total as well (90's vincinity). Would've predicted 80's or 70's but it has more time to make money than John Carter did.

[MovieMan89]

I am still cautiously optimistic about the multi. I really don't see why kids wouldn't like it. Whereas with Tomorrowland I totally get why kids wouldn't have liked it. But at the same time, if parents really dislike it then that kind of creates an issue since they have to take the kids.

[MCKillswitch123]

3 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I am still cautiously optimistic about the multi. I really don't see why kids wouldn't like it. Whereas with Tomorrowland I totally get why kids wouldn't have liked it. But at the same time, if parents really dislike it then that kind of creates an issue since they have to take the kids.

Well, if it's messy and boring (like I've heard a few testimonies say), I can see why they'd dislike it. I haven't seen it myself, I'm just kinda rooting for it to help break the 100M DOM per year record (I think it always had a better chance than Tomb Raider and especially Pacific Rim 2)  

Edited March 10, 2018 by MCKillswitch123

[Fancyarcher]

3 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

I mean in terms of the DOM performance. Similar OW (though Tomorrowland shot higher up w/the 4-day opening), likely similar DOM total as well (90's vincinity). Would've predicted 80's or 70's but it has more time to make money than John Carter did.

Oh! It'll probably falling short of 100m, say around 91m. Tomorrowland had the summer to (slightly) help its legs. 

[YM!]

Well, we didn’t see Wrinkle due to a sellout but Peter Rabbit was surprisingly decent.

[MovieMan89]

Just now, MCKillswitch123 said:

Well, if it's messy and boring (like I've heard a few testimonies say), I can see why they'd dislike it. I haven't seen it myself, I'm just kinda rooting for it to help break the 100M DOM record (I think it always had a better chance than Tomb Raider and especially Pacific Rim 2)  

"Boring" would be a first I've heard for it, lol. Messy? Yeah definitely, but more so in a way that I feel like adults would care about not kids. The movie is very much aimed at kids, to the point where if you go and you're not a parent or chaperoning kids you're probably going to find yourself asking what am I doing here? Haha. 

[Alli]

It has no chance of making 100M. Not with the WOM its having. 

[VGPOP]

My God, Black Panther keeps its astonishing run. This movie has a realistic chance to overtake TFA for second place in top fourth weekend ranks.

 

Magic number: $42,353,786.

 

It needs to have a monster Saturday and great Sunday like its past three weekends.

[a2k]

Something like 10+19(+90%)+13.4(-29.5%)=42.4 can take BP above TFA's weekend.

[Zakiyyah6]

5 minutes ago, Alli said:

It has no chance of making 100M. Not with the WOM its having. 

I'd be super surprised if it hit 100mil. I mean if it explodes on Saturday sure but if it acts as everyone believes it will and does 30-35mil then I see it ending with 80-90mil.

 

16 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

The MT performance for WiT was quite bizarre. A family film that had that big of a lead as it did yesterday should have had no problem winning the day by several mil. 

Obviously something was skewing the numbers. Fascinating to figure out what was doing it?

[IronJimbo]

8 minutes ago, VGPOP said:

My God, Black Panther keeps its astonishing run. This movie has a realistic chance to overtake TFA for second place in top fourth weekend ranks.

 

Magic number: $42,353,786.

 

It needs to have a monster Saturday and great Sunday like its past three weekends.

Screw that let's go all the way! 1st place let's go.

[YM!]

Yeah if Wrinkle has an OW under $35M it’s missing $100M, I don’t see the WOM there. However on the bright side due to the decent budget ($103M) it should breakeven

[YM!]

Everyday watching Panther’s run brings joy to my heart. The film deserves every penny. It’s amazing that it’ll do more than IW domestic and may go over $700M, which only Avatar and TFA has done. Hope it can reach $1.4B.

Edited March 10, 2018 by YourMother the Edgelord

[Zakiyyah6]

5 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Yeah if Wrinkle has an OW under $35M it’s missing $100M, I don’t see the WOM there. However on the bright side due to the decent budget ($103M) it should breakeven

But what if it bombs overseas like Tomorrowland or does even worse than Tomorrowland? Disney did not spend only 20 million marketing the film. That 103mil is not the only thing that they have to recoup. I don't see them being happy with a probable 190-210mil gross.

Edited March 10, 2018 by Zakiyyah6

[Barnack]

14 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

But what if it bombs overseas like Tomorrowland or does even worse than Tomorrowland? Disney did not spend only 20 million marketing the film. That 103mil is not the only thing that they have to recoup. I don't see them being happy with a probable 190-210mil gross.

Edgelost was not suggesting they would be happy with just breaking even, but that is the bright side at least it has a good chance to not flop because it is a mid budget entry.

 

There is a chance for this to do worst than the already not specially good Tomorrowland 1.23 oversea/dom multiplier too, from what I could gather the book was specially popular in the US.

Edited March 10, 2018 by Barnack

[Ledmonkey96]

28 minutes ago, VGPOP said:

My God, Black Panther keeps its astonishing run. This movie has a realistic chance to overtake TFA for second place in top fourth weekend ranks.

 

Magic number: $42,353,786.

 

It needs to have a monster Saturday and great Sunday like its past three weekends.

Well this Sunday it doesn't have Oscar's so it'll probably hold at least a little better than last week.

[MCKillswitch123]

40 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

"Boring" would be a first I've heard for it, lol. Messy? Yeah definitely, but more so in a way that I feel like adults would care about not kids. The movie is very much aimed at kids, to the point where if you go and you're not a parent or chaperoning kids you're probably going to find yourself asking what am I doing here? Haha. 

I have heard some friends (not from the interwebs, but actual real friends) that apparently saw a bootleg version of the movie together (LMAO) and they called it boring, so... yeah.

 

And I agree that messy wouldn't really be something kids would notice, but I dunno. Kids do seem to like anything these days. Peter Rabbit is locked for over 100M, Boss Baby made like 170-175..... Jesus.

Edited March 10, 2018 by MCKillswitch123

[iHeartJames]

I'll still never forget how torrent sites had a torrent link for Black Panther a couple hours after the midnight screening. I never seen a torrent site have an MCU movie up so fast