Weekend Thread | Estimates: AQP 50M, RP1 25M, CKBLK 21.4M, BP 8.4M,

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, Alli said:

What do you predict for Rampage next week?

35M

[KeepItU25071906]

@WrathOfHan

What do you expect for Rampage next week?

Edited April 6, 2018 by KeepItU25071906

[filmlover]

14 minutes ago, CJohn said:

The executives at Universal should probably re-think all their life choices. They are gonna get overshadowed by Paramount 2 weeks in a row. That is enough reason to close doors and cancel all their future releases, IMO.

 

12 minutes ago, DAR said:

I missed this CJohn

What DAR said.

 

[Dandeak2000]

3 minutes ago, Thematrixfilm said:

Theater Counts next week

Rampage - 4,000

Truth or Dare - 3,000

(+1,000) - Isle Of Dogs - 1,547

anyone have a guess with how many locations Sgt. Stubby (Fun Academy) and Borg vs. McEnroe will get?

 

This weekend has +10,154 from 4 new releases.  

Rampage + Truth or Dare + Isle of Dogs expansion should hit about 8k theater counts.  I will assume about 1,000 - 1,500 each?

I'd guess Sgt. Stubby goes for 1,500 or less. With Borg vs McEnroe with 500-600 just out of wide territory

[WrathOfHan]

Quick reminder that this weekend is a win for TUCCI GANG  

 

Edited April 6, 2018 by WrathOfHan

[MCKillswitch123]

9 minutes ago, Mike Hunt said:

I used both examples you had suggested already and thought it would be fun to compare to IT as well as Insidious: The Last Key. I didn't say that A Quiet Place would be frontloaded just that a total of $39.3 Million could be pretty likely with $42.5-50 million being the most likely with the latter statement not included in the post. I didn't say what my predictions were but maybe I should add that next time so confusion doesn't occur.

 

ALSO, Happy Death Day was really frontloaded in its opening weekend with Friday being over twice the Sunday number. Split is better but that would put A Quiet Place at $86 Million which IS NOT happening 

Oh, I thought you were predicting 39M when signs point for a bigger opening, my bad. I know HDD was frontloaded, but I would still consider it as a better example than It. HDD's frontloadedness came from the fact that it opened on a Friday the 13th.

 

@WrathOfHan Come on man, it's a fun monster movie w/The Rock, it's gonna make at least 40 

Edited April 6, 2018 by MCKillswitch123

[Jonwo]

I think Rampage will be on par with RPO's three day OW, maybe a tad higher. 

[YM!]

4 minutes ago, CJohn said:

The truth is that if the worse and most incompetent studio in the planet is gonna fuck you in the ass dry 2 weeks in the row maybe YOU are the worse and most incompetent studio in the planet right now.

What about Lionsgate?

[YM!]

Just now, Jonwo said:

I think Rampage will be on par with RPO's three day OW, maybe a tad higher. 

Nah. $50M+ OW.

[Dandeak2000]

3 minutes ago, Alli said:

What do you predict for Rampage next week?

In 4,000 theaters I could see a $9K PTA for $36M

 

At higher and lower ends of estimate

 

3,900 - $35.1M

4,100 - $36.9M

[WrathOfHan]

1 minute ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Oh, I thought you were predicting 39M when signs point for a bigger opening, my bad. I know HDD was frontloaded, but I would still consider it as a better example than It. HDD's frontloadedness came from the fact that it opened on a Friday the 13th.

 

@WrathOfHan Come on man, it's a fun monster movie w/The Rock, it's gonna make at least 40 

It's not selling anything on Pulse. @EmpireCity how does your tracking look?

[filmlover]

Just now, Jonwo said:

I think Rampage will be on par with RPO's three day OW, maybe a tad higher. 

I think it does about $45M next weekend. Although there's always at least one casualty when the market is booming and it's not impossible this could be the one, especially with A Quiet Place breaking out so much.

[Alli]

5 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

35M

Seems low. But it feels the hype was bigger a few weeks ago.  Do we have any tracking numbers?

[CJohn]

2 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

What about Lionsgate?

I was talking about the big 6 here. Lionsgate was slightly above Paramount in my books, tho.

[MCKillswitch123]

Just now, WrathOfHan said:

It's not selling anything on Pulse. @EmpireCity how does your tracking look?

Well, it kinda makes sense, all the focus is on AQP/Blockers/RPO right now. Plus, I don't expect Rampage to be hugely frontloaded, it's probably gonna be somewhat walk-up driven.

[Dandeak2000]

1 minute ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Oh, I thought you were predicting 39M when signs point for a bigger opening, my bad. I know HDD was frontloaded, but I would still consider it as a better example than It. HDD's frontloadedness came from the fact that it opened on a Friday the 13th.

 

@WrathOfHan Come on man, it's a fun monster movie w/The Rock, it's gonna make at least 40 

Yeah, this weekend is going to be massive for A Quiet Place, Rampage will open pretty well, then we have Avengers!

 

Another month bringing a calendar gross of $1 Billion on the way!

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, MCKillswitch123 said:

Well, it kinda makes sense, all the focus is on AQP/Blockers/RPO right now. Plus, I don't expect Rampage to be hugely frontloaded, it's probably gonna be somewhat walk-up driven.

Movies that open over 40M at least have somewhat of a presence on Pulse one week before release. Even stuff like Red Sparrow was showing up every now and then.

[filmlover]

Just now, CJohn said:

I was talking about the big 6 here. Lionsgate was slightly above Paramount in my books.

I feel sorry for you CJohn. About to put flowers on both Paramount and Sony's graves and they come back like:

 

[dxmatrixdt]

Last weekend, 21 mainstream films had 40,057 theater counts  This week, those same 21 plus the 4 new ones add up to 38,920 for 25 films.  However, Midnight Sun has not reported in yet.  There is a current difference of 1,137 from last week excluding MS. 

The theater counts has been around 40k, the last few weeks.  Next weekend should add about 8,000 from Rampage, Isle of Dogs + Truth Or Dare.  I would assume account with 2,000 max between Sgt. Stubby and .  It should spill over 10,000, but the market should handle it for the rest of April.  It could get up to 45k theater counts, and when Avengers opens to about 4,300, there might be a huge net drop going down to about 38,000 with Avengers going +4,300.  That would be about -11,300 theater counts.

[CJohn]

8 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I feel sorry for you CJohn. About to put flowers on both Paramount and Sony's graves and they come back like:

 

I feel like Sony was never that bad. Paramount tho, that shit is a zombie walking after years buried in the grave that just found the cure and became human again.