INFINITY WAR WEEKEND THREAD | Actuals ~ 257.698M OW (RECORD) | 106.334M Friday, 82.131M Saturday (RECORD), 69.231M Sunday (RECORD) | 640.9M Worldwide Opening (RECORD) | Read the Rules on the First Post | SALE NOW LIVE

[Deep Wang]

Just now, fabiopazzo2 said:

every film that has opened more than 200 million in USA has exceeded 600M but not IW ??   

Every movie that opened the week or so before Christmas has always had a 3x until The Last Jedi.

 

Shit happens, but that's why I think that if it breaks the record, it will do ever so slightly better, but it's not going to buck the trend of poor legs for MCU sequels.

[RandomCat]

2 minutes ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

every film that has opened more than 200 million in USA has exceeded 600M but not IW ??   

Bound to happen eventually.

[sfran43]

[Rebeccas]

1 minute ago, Deep Wang said:

Every movie that opened the week or so before Christmas has always had a 3x until The Last Jedi.

 

Shit happens, but that's why I think that if it breaks the record, it will do ever so slightly better, but it's not going to buck the trend of poor legs for MCU sequels.

I mean if fans hate it as much as TLJ then I'm definitely going x2.0 but so far, it seems the opposite. We'll see once it opens in America.

 

I guess everyone is using DH2 as the precedent for a record breaking OW dying a quick death, but that's just a really weird case imo. First it was a book that half the world already read and it's only the 2nd half of the book.

[fabiopazzo2]

Just now, Deep Wang said:

Every movie that opened the week or so before Christmas has always had a 3x until The Last Jedi.

 

Shit happens, but that's why I think that if it breaks the record, it will do ever so slightly better, but it's not going to buck the trend of poor legs for MCU sequels.

thanks 

probably SW 8 would not have reached 600M if it had opened in a different month

[Rumpot]

6 minutes ago, RandomCat said:

And? some of these people posting with authority/certainty have been doing this for years, and one bad prediction shouldn't be enough to wipe away all that.

 

Plus, where is your chastising of people posting with authority/certainty that IW will have great legs?

give me an example of where someone said 100% certain it will have great legs and I apply the same to those posts.  There are many posts...I could certainly have missed them, but I'm seeing plenty of the opposite stance

[fabiopazzo2]

2 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

and 10 seconds

[Biggestgeekever]

Up 20.6% from last weekend. Getting that Avengers proximity bump.

[MovieMan89]

34 minutes ago, Chewy said:

Like, even the most optimistic among us (@MovieMan89 where you at lol) wouldn't go anywhere near a 2.9. My goodness

3x has always been my best case scenario for it. But I’m talking stratospheric WOM for that to happen. My actual expectations lie around 2.6-2.7 right now.

31 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

Actually....there are some people who really truly believe this is going to hit a billion.

Is anyone even in that club besides @TheDarkKnightOfSteel  lol? 

 

Or or are you talking about people who don’t believe it’s “impossible” and that can of worms again.

[Rumpot]

7 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

Every movie that opened the week or so before Christmas has always had a 3x until The Last Jedi.

 

Shit happens, but that's why I think that if it breaks the record, it will do ever so slightly better, but it's not going to buck the trend of poor legs for MCU sequels.

Or....it will.  One or the other for sure.  I'm 100% sure it'll have A multiplier though

[Deep Wang]

3 minutes ago, Rumpot said:

Or....it will.  

[RandomCat]

8 minutes ago, Rumpot said:

give me an example of where someone said 100% certain it will have great legs and I apply the same to those posts.  There are many posts...I could certainly have missed them, but I'm seeing plenty of the opposite stance

We had two people in the past 2-3 pages say it with pretty certainty. *shrug* They aren't that hard to find, there is an over 1B club.

 

Edit: three people in the past few pages then.

Edited April 26, 2018 by RandomCat

[Webslinger]

It's important to note that the Harry Potter sequels were always notoriously frontloaded (and even the first one fell well short of the staying power it was expected to have). With how heavily its opening day skewed toward midnight screenings and the precedent set by the Twilight films, I don't think there was a soul that expected Deathly Hallows: Part 2 to fall less than 70% in its second weekend - especially with Captain America taking up so much screen space.

 

Infinity War, like most gargantuan openers, gets the luxury of having virtually no meaningful competition in its second weekend - nor in its third, thanks to the upward bump on the release schedule. That doesn't necessarily shield it if fan word-of-mouth is less than enthusiastic (see: Batman v. Superman's ugly drops despite an empty release schedule around it), but it at least limits the possibility of some other movie coming in and stealing its thunder ahead of Deadpool 2's release on May 18.

 

In the wake of The Last Jedi's performance and other kinda-sorta-backlashes against well-reviewed tentpoles (or, on the flip side: Jurassic World's longevity amid middling reviews), I've given up using reviews as a measuring stick for the legs of event films. We're not going to have a clear idea of where Infinity War's legs are headed until the end of the weekend at the earliest.

Edited April 26, 2018 by Webslinger

[Lordmandeep]

Funny thing this year is that more than 1 in 10 tickets sold this year for the 2018 box office will be for either BP and IW. 

 

 

 

 

[The Mad Titan]

I just don’t think the legs will be as bad as many as believing. AoU was not at all this well received via WOM or critically at this point and still managed a 2.4x

 

I’m not going crazy but I don’t see why it can’t do 2.8 

 

Even being a bit conservative I get a 2.6x

 

$250 million OW. 

$320 million after 7 days.

$440 million after 10 days.

$470 million after 14 days.

$530 million after 17 days.

$550 million after 21 days. 

 

DP2 comes and the next week Solo but I see no reason it can’t do $100 million total after day 21. 

[Chewy]

Just now, Webslinger said:

It's important to note that the Harry Potter sequels were always notoriously frontloaded (and even the first one fell well short of the staying power it was expected to have).

 

So are the Marvel sequels! The really good ones might eek out a 2.6!

[Lordmandeep]

I think the multiplier will be around 2.4 ish..

 

Reasons are:

- Better Reception

- More Hype and Buzz

 

 

This factors should draw in more casuals then usual. 

[Webslinger]

Just now, Chewy said:

 

So are the Marvel sequels! The really good ones might eek out a 2.6!

True, but the second and third Harry Potter films had sub-3.0 multipliers in an era when such a thing was almost unheard of for a well-received family-friendly film.

[CJohn]

This is gonna have the same type of multiplier as Civil War.

[grey ghost]

1 hour ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Because an origin story will have the same legs as a superhero team up and also a hugely fan driven are the same leg wise.

Um, I debated for weeks the legs for SMH would be fine.

 

Where were you at?

 

 

Edited April 26, 2018 by grey ghost