INFINITY WAR WEEKEND THREAD | Actuals ~ 257.698M OW (RECORD) | 106.334M Friday, 82.131M Saturday (RECORD), 69.231M Sunday (RECORD) | 640.9M Worldwide Opening (RECORD) | Read the Rules on the First Post | SALE NOW LIVE

[Chewy]

5 minutes ago, The Mad Titan said:

I just don’t think the legs will be as bad as many as believing. AoU was not at all this well received via WOM or critically at this point and still managed a 2.4x

 

I’m not going crazy but I don’t see why it can’t do 2.8 

 

Even being a bit conservative I get a 2.6x

 

$250 million OW. 

$320 million after 7 days.

$440 million after 10 days.

$470 million after 14 days.

$530 million after 17 days.

$550 million after 21 days. 

 

DP2 comes and the next week Solo but I see no reason it can’t do $100 million total after day 21. 

 

120M second weekend is, like, the exact opposite of conservative

[Wrath]

Do we know the Australia Thursday # yet?

[The Mad Titan]

Just now, Chewy said:

 

120M second weekend is, like, the exact opposite of conservative

It’s a 52% drop with little competition on what appears to be a more highly received film than its predecessor :/

[MattW]

13 minutes ago, The Mad Titan said:

I just don’t think the legs will be as bad as many as believing. AoU was not at all this well received via WOM or critically at this point and still managed a 2.4x

 

I’m not going crazy but I don’t see why it can’t do 2.8 

 

Even being a bit conservative I get a 2.6x

 

$250 million OW. 

$320 million after 7 days.

$440 million after 10 days.

$470 million after 14 days.

$530 million after 17 days.

$550 million after 21 days. 

 

DP2 comes and the next week Solo but I see no reason it can’t do $100 million total after day 21. 

AoU, IM3, CW, varied reception, huge openings, similar legs: 2.28-2.40x

Thor Ragnarok with a bit of help from the various holidays got to 2.57x

GotG2 is the exception to the marvel sequelitis, and even then it only reached up to 2.66x

Edited April 26, 2018 by MattW

[grey ghost]

6 minutes ago, CJohn said:

This is gonna have the same type of multiplier as Civil War.

Nah.

 

This is sensory overload with a compelling villain.

 

CW was mostly casuals looking at their watch.

[CJohn]

Just now, grey ghost said:

Nah.

 

This is sensory overload with a compelling villain.

 

CW was mostly casuals looking at their watch.

You weren't there to see the audience's faces by the time the screen turned to black.

[The Mad Titan]

2 minutes ago, MattW said:

AoU, IM3, CW, varied reception, huge openings, similar legs: 2.28-2.40x

Thor Ragnarok with a bit of help from the various holidays got to 2.57x

GotG2 is the exception to the marvel sequelitis, and even then it only reached up to 2.66x

I think the Avengers brand name helps though. As I said, AoU was not nearly well received and got a 2.4x 

[FlashMaster659]

5 minutes ago, Wrath said:

Do we know the Australia Thursday # yet?

Not yet. Rth said 4.5-5.5 several hours ago.

[filmlover]

Deathly Hallows Part 2 actually sounds like a fair comparison in terms of staying power expectations. That was one of the most acclaimed movies of its year but it didn't matter to anyone who wasn't already on board (but the vast portion of the moviegoing population already was in the first place so it doesn't matter).

[grey ghost]

4 minutes ago, MattW said:

AoU, IM3, CW, varied reception, huge openings, similar legs: 2.28-2.40x

Thor Ragnarok with a bit of help from the various holidays got to 2.57x

GotG2 is the exception to the marvel sequelitis, and even then it only reached up to 2.66x

Phase 2 had less enthusiasm.

 

Phase 3 is a different animal.

 

People haven't been this crazy about MCU since TA.

[Chewy]

4 minutes ago, The Mad Titan said:

It’s a 52% drop with little competition on what appears to be a more highly received film than its predecessor :/

 

First one fell 50% with zero competition, previews that were less than half of what this one will do, absolutely euphoric word-of-mouth and, y'know, being the first

[grey ghost]

3 minutes ago, CJohn said:

You weren't there to see the audience's faces by the time the screen turned to black.

How invested is the average person in Portugal in MCU or SH movies in general?

 

I bet the casual bastards didn't even stay for the end credits. 

[Thrylos 7]

46 minutes ago, Rumpot said:

Being wrong is one thing.  Many are posting with authority/certainty

Don’t bother even replying to these yahoos.

Edited April 26, 2018 by Thrylos 7

[The Mad Titan]

2 minutes ago, Chewy said:

 

First one fell 50% with zero competition, previews that were less than half of what this one will do, absolutely euphoric word-of-mouth and, y'know, being the first

Can you change your name to Freddy Krueger cause you are fucking up my dreams, Chewy! 😭

[CJohn]

2 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

How invested is the average person in Portugal in MCU or SH movies in general?

 

I bet the casual bastards didn't even stay for the end credits. 

350 people. Everyone stayed.

[JB33]

Re-posting this here so we can refer back to it one day of need be:

 

MT.com (1:36PM PST | Thursday April 26):

 

Avengers: Infinity War 86.5%

I Feel Pretty 2.5%

A Quiet Place 1.8%

Rampage 1.3%

Super Troopers 2 1%

[Chewy]

31 minutes ago, Rumpot said:

give me an example of where someone said 100% certain it will have great legs and I apply the same to those posts.  There are many posts...I could certainly have missed them, but I'm seeing plenty of the opposite stance

 

One stance is based on fan belief and the other is based on math and history. Could be wrong but data is data

[That One Girl]

12 minutes ago, The Mad Titan said:

It’s a 52% drop with little competition on what appears to be a more highly received film than its predecessor :/

 

Civil War dropped nearly 60% against Money Monster ($14M) and The Darkness ($4M).  I suspect the combined grosses of Tully, Overboard, and Bad Samaritan will make more than the combined grosses of those two (thinking Tully does $15M, Overboard does $12M, and Bad Samaritan like $2.5M).  not to mention Civil War having better reviews and not being a part 1.

[expensiveho]

Wasn't everyone claiming that the comic book films would never reach Avengers / TDK (adjusted) numbers ever again? 

 

We really have no idea so far about the legs of this movie, wait at least for Friday numbers to start making fun of the other members and act like you're undoubtedly right. 

[The Panda]

11 minutes ago, MattW said:

AoU, IM3, CW, varied reception, huge openings, similar legs: 2.28-2.40x

Thor Ragnarok with a bit of help from the various holidays got to 2.57x

GotG2 is the exception to the marvel sequelitis, and even then it only reached up to 2.66x

Gotg2 also had next to no competition until WW, IW has two free weeks then it’s three straight weeks of big releases (two of which are direct comp)

 

I think best case legs for this are around GOTG2 (which I think is stretching it).  I’m expecting somewhere around Ultron or CW legs