AVENGERS ENDGAME | 1939.4 M overseas ● 2797.8 M worldwide

[ZattMurdock]

Just now, VanillaSkies said:

No offence, but for 3), anecdotal evidence is never a good argument. The argument can be tailored to your point simply by the theatres you choose to look at. 

 

Here's a Monday showing for example that is already about 1/3 full, 2 days in advance. 

https://www.amctheatres.com/showtimes/avengers-endgame-45840/2019-07-01/amc-century-city-15/all/81762714

Secondly, no one is arguing it is going to keep pulling amazing numbers, but with around 6.5 million this weekend, it only needs 4.5 million over the 11 days from July 1 - Jul 11th to beat Avatar's re-release number domestically. Throw in the fact that Monday is a holiday in Canada and Thursday is a holiday in the United States, and I don't see any path in which it doesn't get there. 

Anyhow, as you said, time will tell where the numbers will fall...

Gah I wish I could go. Can’t wait for Endgame to finally get its re-release here in Brazil.

[VanillaSkies]

6 minutes ago, ZattMurdock said:

Gah I wish I could go. Can’t wait for Endgame to finally get its re-release here in Brazil.

I imagine Brazil will pull in some impressive numbers, given what it's done there so far!

[cdsacken]

1 hour ago, Pure Spirit said:

I think people expecting momentum into next weekend may be disappointed. I wouldn’t be surprised to see an 80%+ drop after this event uses up a ton of pent-up demand. I think this will play more like a one time event than something that “resets the legs”. It’ll be interesting to see how much OS markets care about it, but it looks like a modest success in the states... above my expectations but below optimistic ones I’ve seen in this thread. Not enough on its own to get WW#1 but Disney can keep doing this, hardcore fans have shown themselves this weekend to be quite willing to see it again if they can see it with a big audience.

 

I think the biggest obstacle to WW#1 will be the digital release, unless it gets there sooner. That’s going to chop it down to $1-2M left in the tank entirely.

amc already said that's not happening and it makes no sense to cut the legs off during FFH's opening week. Now after next weekend......brutal massive drop. Drop next week too but massive one the week after

[Valonqar]

5 hours ago, VanillaSkies said:

Don't get your hopes up too high, OS is a staggered release, not all countries are getting it this weekend.
For example, Hong Kong will be getting it July 4th, Brazil is still TBD. 

 

I'd say a WW figure of 10-12 million seems likely for the weekend (which is not too shabby!)

IMO, it's not a bad thing if some countries get the re-release later. they provide steam for they will arrive at the time when markets that got re-release ease up. domestic launch is really robust and reports from those 3 or so countries as well so 10-12M WW re-launch is absolutely incredible and more than anyone expected. I think expectations were 15M for the whole run of re-release not for OW. or something. 

Edited June 29, 2019 by Valonqar

[ZattMurdock]

4 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

amc already said that's not happening and it makes no sense to cut the legs off during FFH's opening week. Now after next weekend......brutal massive drop. Drop next week too but massive one the week after

It will have a drop because it will lose the effect of the holiday and Far From Home's first weekend. With that said, Far From Home couldn't ask for a better companion film to have around than Endgame, and vice versa.

 

Also, the stagged roll out of the re-release might compensate for that in the upcoming weeks.

Edited June 29, 2019 by ZattMurdock

[VanillaSkies]

38 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

IMO, it's not a bad thing if some countries get the re-release later. they provide steam for they will arrive at the time when markets that got re-release ease up. domestic launch is really robust and reports from those 3 or so countries as well so 10-12M WW re-launch is absolutely incredible and more than anyone expected. I think expectations were 15M for the whole run of re-release not for OW. or something. 

Yeah, that was the point I was trying to make. 

Don't be too upset if OS looks a little weak this weekend compared to domestic, because it's having a staggered release OS. If it hadn't been staggered and place like Brazil were included OS this weekend, it probably could have doubled the domestic number. 

[Valonqar]

7 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:

Yeah, that was the point I was trying to make. 

Don't be too upset if OS looks a little weak this weekend compared to domestic, because it's having a staggered release OS. If it hadn't been staggered and place like Brazil were included OS this weekend, it probably could have doubled the domestic number. 

No worries, I'm not cause I always expected dom to shoulder the re-release with OS being a gravy train. and since dom blew past expectations, I'm in celebration mode. 

Edited June 29, 2019 by Valonqar

[Pure Spirit]

1 hour ago, VanillaSkies said:

No offence, but for 3), anecdotal evidence is never a good argument. The argument can be tailored to your point simply by the theatres you choose to look at. 

 

Here's a Monday showing for example that is already about 1/4 full, 2 days in advance. 

https://www.amctheatres.com/showtimes/avengers-endgame-45840/2019-07-01/amc-century-city-15/all/81762714

Secondly, no one is arguing it is going to keep pulling amazing numbers, but with around 6.5 million this weekend, it only needs 4.5 million over the 11 days from July 1 - Jul 11th to beat Avatar's re-release number domestically. Throw in the fact that Monday is a holiday in Canada and Thursday is a holiday in the United States, and I don't see any path in which it doesn't get there. 

Anyhow, as you said, time will tell where the numbers will fall...

I was looking at presales for theaters on Wednesday. No seats sold in my area.

 

4 days ago, I saw theaters half sold out for today when looking forward.

 

So this weekend looks anomalous. It's just a matter of by how much.

[juni78ukr]

$147 633 Thursday - Saturday in Russia without CIS. 

$174 916 including Sunday presales

[ZattMurdock]

25 minutes ago, Pure Spirit said:

I was looking at presales for theaters on Wednesday. No seats sold in my area.

 

4 days ago, I saw theaters half sold out for today when looking forward.

 

So this weekend looks anomalous. It's just a matter of by how much.

Why a film that it’s in the theaters for two months would have pre-sales for freaking Wednesday? Yes, there will be a lot of people watching Endgame in the day before 4th of July, but it’s still a film that was released two months ago. The way you are grasping at straws is entertaining though.

Edited June 29, 2019 by ZattMurdock

[Pure Spirit]

28 minutes ago, ZattMurdock said:

Why a film that it’s in the theaters for two months would have pre-sales for freaking Wednesday?

Why would a film in theaters for two months have bigger percentage of tickets sold through pre-sales than Toy Story 2's second weekend, and by a huge margin? I don't know, but Endgame did. Endgame is a presale-heavy phenomenon, and the pre-sales seem to indicate a rough second half of the week for Endgame. FFH may cushion the fall with double features, but it's hard to say by how much. The presales at a local theater look like this:

Sunday 100

Monday 50

Tuesday 12

Wednesday 0

 

I don't know why you think I'm grasping at straws, I want Endgame to pass Avatar. It keeps Avatar in the headlines and makes the Avatar 4k HDR re-render more likely and possibly the world's first $3B movie (I really, really, want the Avatar 4k re-render, and I don't want to wait until 2021). But the trend looks pretty clear, I've been checking presales for Endgame for a while and this is the first time I've seen 0 presales at this theater for an upcoming Wednesday this close.

 

If this beats Avatar WW, it's going to be on the back of overseas over performance.

[ZattMurdock]

6 minutes ago, Pure Spirit said:

Why would a film in theaters for two months have bigger percentage of tickets sold through pre-sales than Toy Story 2's second weekend, and by a huge margin? I don't know, but Endgame did. Endgame is a presale-heavy phenomenon, and the pre-sales seem to indicate a rough second half of the week for Endgame. FFH may cushion the fall with double features, but it's hard to say by how much. The presales at a local theater look like this:

Sunday 100

Monday 50

Tuesday 12

Wednesday 0

 

I don't know why you think I'm grasping at straws, I want Endgame to pass Avatar. It keeps Avatar in the headlines and makes the Avatar 4k HDR re-render more likely and possibly the world's first $3B movie (I really, really, want the Avatar 4k re-render, and I don't want to wait until 2021). But the trend looks pretty clear, I've been checking presales for Endgame for a while and this is the first time I've seen 0 presales at this theater for an upcoming Wednesday this close.

 

If this beats Avatar WW, it's going to be on the back of overseas over performance.

1. What the hell Toy Story 2 has to do with anything?

2. If you are talking about Toy Story 4, Toy Story 4 had the best pre-sales of the films available in the theaters currently, so I don’t really see what the hell you are talking about here;

3. As for your anedoctal... ok? It’s obvious that as the days go by, tickets will be sold more, it’s the nature of box office tickets selling;

4. As for you wanting Endgame to top Avatar, once again... ok?

 

[Pure Spirit]

18 minutes ago, ZattMurdock said:

1. What the hell Toy Story 2 has to do with anything?

2. If you are talking about Toy Story 4, Toy Story 4 had the best pre-sales of the films available in the theaters currently, so I don’t really see what the hell you are talking about here;

3. As for your anedoctal... ok? It’s obvious that as the days go by, tickets will be sold more, it’s the nature of box office tickets selling;

4. As for you wanting Endgame to top Avatar, once again... ok?

 

I’ve checked presale trends at local theaters before and they’ve never looked like that. The drop off was never that severe even going into Wednesday. I’ve been predicting this rerelease will actually suck up demand from the previous week and following week and that appears to be the case (based solely on presales, of course actuals could be different)

Edited June 30, 2019 by Pure Spirit

[ZattMurdock]

2 minutes ago, Pure Spirit said:

I’ve checked presale trends at local theaters before and they’ve never looked like that. The drop off was never that severe even going into Wednesday. I’ve been predicting this rerelease will actually suck up demand from the previous week and following week and that appears to be the case (based solely on presales, of course actuals could be different)

Ok

[cdsacken]

No matter what happens you are waiting till 2021. 2022 is possible as well what's another year after 6 consecutive delays. Regardless for Avatar 2s sake to best mitigate the serious risk it has of underperforming they need to rerelease the original the same year it's coming out. 4k rerelease is a great idea. Hope it happens and seems like it would help Avatar 2 have a better shot at securing a huge opening. No massive legs this time.

[Doctor Stark]

9 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

No matter what happens you are waiting till 2021. 2022 is possible as well what's another year after 6 consecutive delays. Regardless for Avatar 2s sake to best mitigate the serious risk it has of underperforming they need to rerelease the original the same year it's coming out. 4k rerelease is a great idea. Hope it happens and seems like it would help Avatar 2 have a better shot at securing a huge opening. No massive legs this time.

You see, that is where you are wrong. While Avatar 2 will have a massive opening, no matter how huge it is (I’m thinking Infinity War to Endgame level if the trailers are good enough solely due to Jim Cameron and the Jake Sully fanbase), it will have the signature Cameron legs of 5x or greater. We could be looking at $1.5 billion in China and $1.5 billion in the domestic market. $2 billion overseas minus China is pretty easy to do for Jim. I would be shocked if Avatar 2’s overseas total does not beat Endgame’s worldwide total by AT LEAST $500 million. Avatar 2 will have a finale factor opening with the legs of a runaway original hit, like The Greatest Showman. Jim won’t do wrong by us. $5 billies can happen in my midrange scenarios easily. The floor is a bit harder to predict, probably around $4 billion, a modest sum that just barely edges out Gone with the Wind adjusted for inflation. I would not expect a Marvel fanboy like yourself to understand a lot of this and why it is an inevitability. You just enjoy persecuting the enlightened minority.

[Permanent Magnet]

1 hour ago, juni78ukr said:

$174 916 including Sunday presales

 

1 hour ago, Pure Spirit said:

Why would a film in theaters for two months have bigger percentage of tickets sold through pre-sales than Toy Story 2's second weekend, and by a huge margin? I don't know, but Endgame did. Endgame is a presale-heavy phenomenon, and the pre-sales seem to indicate a rough second half of the week for Endgame. FFH may cushion the fall with double features, but it's hard to say by how much. The presales at a local theater look like this:

Sunday 100

Monday 50

Tuesday 12

Wednesday 0

 

I don't know why you think I'm grasping at straws, I want Endgame to pass Avatar. It keeps Avatar in the headlines and makes the Avatar 4k HDR re-render more likely and possibly the world's first $3B movie (I really, really, want the Avatar 4k re-render, and I don't want to wait until 2021). But the trend looks pretty clear, I've been checking presales for Endgame for a while and this is the first time I've seen 0 presales at this theater for an upcoming Wednesday this close.

 

If this beats Avatar WW, it's going to be on the back of overseas over performance.

will disney and JC release that 4K re-render only when EG beat Avatar???

i mean i want that 4k version too, but it doesn't require EG to defeat Avatar in order to happen.

[cdsacken]

China if it does amazing might hit 1 billion and HUGE doubt that it will. Legs are super short and I doubt it beats wolf warrior 2.

 

Personally I think it will do less in dom, insanely less in Latin America, about 3x in China (750m) . I loved Avatar and still think it hits 2B but again according to all Avatar fans 2.75B or less is underperforming. Hence the huge chance of underperforming.

 

1.5b in China is as likely as 300m

[Permanent Magnet]

5 minutes ago, Doctor Stark said:

You see, that is where you are wrong. While Avatar 2 will have a massive opening, no matter how huge it is (I’m thinking Infinity War to Endgame level if the trailers are good enough solely due to Jim Cameron and the Jake Sully fanbase), it will have the signature Cameron legs of 5x or greater. We could be looking at $1.5 billion in China and $1.5 billion in the domestic market. $2 billion overseas minus China is pretty easy to do for Jim. I would be shocked if Avatar 2’s overseas total does not beat Endgame’s worldwide total by AT LEAST $500 million. Avatar 2 will have a finale factor opening with the legs of a runaway original hit, like The Greatest Showman. Jim won’t do wrong by us. $5 billies can happen in my midrange scenarios easily. The floor is a bit harder to predict, probably around $4 billion, a modest sum that just barely edges out Gone with the Wind adjusted for inflation. I would not expect a Marvel fanboy like yourself to understand a lot of this and why it is an inevitability. You just enjoy persecuting the enlightened minority. 

GWTW????

it will make at least 5B.

china expanded by 10 times since 2009, so you have 2B in china, 3B os-china, 2B domestic for total of 7B and i am being conservative .

[Doctor Stark]

9 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

China if it does amazing might hit 1 billion and HUGE doubt that it will. Legs are super short and I doubt it beats wolf warrior 2.

 

Personally I think it will do less in dom, insanely less in Latin America, about 3x in China (750m) . I loved Avatar and still think it hits 2B but again according to all Avatar fans 2.75B or less is underperforming. Hence the huge chance of underperforming.

 

1.5b in China is as likely as 300m

The fact of the matter is that if it does not outgross the first one it is a failure. Period. China is like ten times bigger than back then. That will easily scale linearly, $1.5 billion isn’t even that far on the high end. Jim will show this forum just how small a $2.78 billion gross is in this modern era. Avatar 5 may end up with majority market share out of all money earned by movies in the year it is released. THAT will be an Endgame to witness.

Edited June 30, 2019 by Doctor Stark