AVENGERS ENDGAME | 1939.4 M overseas ● 2797.8 M worldwide

[cdsacken]

3 minutes ago, Hemo memo said:

So is it over for the record?

Impossible to answer. Total after 11 days will give an indication of likelyhood to go for it soon. 

[nguyenkhoi282]

Oh please. Actuals will be 3M and next weekend will be good too since the expansion is staggered.

[NCsoft]

19 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Cant fathom any film ever hitting all of those demographics. With Twitter, Netflix, other streaming and currencies crushed I will be shocked to see even 4B in the next 11 years. Heck above 3.5 seems very unlikely.

True, so I'd give the number some flexibility.

If I remember correctly, proportional box office (calculating top film released of that year, or using yearly global box office growth) pegs Titanic at 5.3B+, since it was the highest grossing film ever in pretty much every country sans India and Turkey (maybe a few other small markets).

Is that achievable now? probably not, but 4.5 as opposed to 5.3? Suddenly seems a lot more achievable, still hard though.  

[PKMLover]

4 minutes ago, juni78ukr said:

$7.84 mln this weekend worldwide. $27 mln to go. Not very likely.

The actual may be 8.5-9

[john2000]

Just now, PKMLover said:

The actual may be 8.5-9

plus why its everyone assuming  that the re expansion was for that, the re expansion helped and will help to close the gap, thats it the other money that are required endgames natural legs will give

[nguyenkhoi282]

Lol such question like how much can a movie make right now really doesn't make sense. If you remove all competition and leave it in theaters for 5 years without DVD/Bluray options, it'll make all the money in the world.

 

Or it could enjoy a mountain of competition and shed screens like crazy and fail. 

[nguyenkhoi282]

6 minutes ago, john2000 said:

plus why its everyone assuming  that the re expansion was for that, the re expansion helped and will help to close the gap, thats it the other money that are required endgames natural legs will give

Lol they think that it gets to 2.785B and Disney will be like "nah i give up" or sth

[cdsacken]

2 minutes ago, NCsoft said:

True, so I'd give the number some flexibility.

If I remember correctly, proportional box office (calculating top film released of that year, or using yearly global box office growth) pegs Titanic at 5.3B+, since it was the highest grossing film ever in pretty much every country sans India and Turkey (maybe a few other small markets).

Is that achievable now? probably not, but 4.5 as opposed to 5.3? Suddenly seems a lot more achievable, still hard though.  

I have zero issue with the Titanic 5.3 adjusted number but would that happen in 2019? Absolutely not imo. 4B wouldn't happen for Titanic. Unfortunately no way to prove it either way. I'm negative on the trajectory of box office so in that sense I hope Avatar 2 breaks 3B. Gloating and bullcrap aside it's what I want. 1B in China and 3B+ WW

[john2000]

Just now, nguyenkhoi282 said:

Lol they think that it gets to 2.785B and Disney will be like "nah i give up" or sth

yeah that logic drives me crazy, the most annoying part is that there are people that were expecting to go to 2780 this weekend , like wtf ???

[NCsoft]

17 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

When dvd/vcd first hit , people worried about how cinema go doom from there, yet the movie inch closer to billion.

When online streaming hit in early 2010s, people got panic attack again, yet more and more billionaire now.  

Exactly, global cinema going trends up on a yearly basis despite home video, TV, video games, social media and streaming. I don't see that stopping anytime soon. There is something really special about going to the theaters and watch films. NA/Europe may be going through a rough patch and inflation made sure the absolute gross is not decreasing and records still keep getting broken here as well. 

To be fair, 2020 does look like a stagnant year globally, and a down year domestically, but in the grand scheme of things, it's going to be all fine. 

[AlexMA]

3 minutes ago, NCsoft said:

True, so I'd give the number some flexibility.

If I remember correctly, proportional box office (calculating top film released of that year, or using yearly global box office growth) pegs Titanic at 5.3B+, since it was the highest grossing film ever in pretty much every country sans India and Turkey (maybe a few other small markets).

Is that achievable now? probably not, but 4.5 as opposed to 5.3? Suddenly seems a lot more achievable, still hard though.  

You'd have to create the ultimate blockbuster, must-see in a theater. And you need ZERO barrier to entry, so it can't be a sequel. And like many said you need a perfect storm of events around it, not just the perfect movie.

 

I personally think we will see $3 billion in the next decade, not so sure where it will come from, but I'm positive we will get at least one. After that who the hell knows.

[titanic2187]

1 minute ago, cdsacken said:

VHS/dvd required going to a physical location and spending $5 at Blockbuster to rent it. Streaming is free for many, next to nothing cost with coupons and such instantly and of course illegal torrenting. I'm not saying I won't be wrong but if none of the factors affected stuff Avatar 2 should do 4B. I don't believe it even hits 3B and besides that film nothing else will sniff the current total for years. IMO of course.

Just because of Avatar 2 didn't make 4b doesn't mean the market is impacted by whatsoever factors. I think we have few talks on this before, I just don't buy the idea of online streaming are hurting blockbusters. Blockbusters when they do well with decent quality can hit 1b easily or at least 800m worldwide  with ease, but the full cultural phenomenon like HP1 or LOTR or Finding nemo can only lead them to near billionaire gate in early 2000s.     

 

There just not enough of data supporting that people skip blockbusters or VFX/action driven tentpole because of online streaming. More often than not, people skip them because of poor quality and they squeeze out by of higher number of blockbusters offering. 

 

Instead of killing the viewership in theater, the online streaming hurt more on scheduled movies showing on TVs. Now, you either watch a movie in theater or online or DVD.

 

However, I totally buy the idea of online streaming hurting the drama/comedy affair. That is the basic economy theory, theater cannot differentiate the product experience between theater and streaming. Naturally people will stay away from theater. I mean, what is the difference of watching a drama on my laptop or theater screen?     

 

In short, online streaming just further reinforce the role of cinema to offer the visual/sound effect blockbusters or horror while they take the ground of your drama/comedy. 

[juni78ukr]

2 minutes ago, john2000 said:

plus why its everyone assuming  that the re expansion was for that, the re expansion helped and will help to close the gap, thats it the other money that are required endgames natural legs will give

Lol. What natural legs? It was already over in so many foreign markets. The run ended with no legs after 7th or 8th weekend.  And this re expansion is for 4 days or for a week. For example Endgame will gross around 63k in Russia today and probably only $3k tomorrow.

[Valonqar]

15 minutes ago, Hemo memo said:

So is it over for the record?

it's not because there's enough demand to keep it in cinemas as long as it takes. this weekend proved that. 

[NCsoft]

6 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

I have zero issue with the Titanic 5.3 adjusted number but would that happen in 2019? Absolutely not imo. 4B wouldn't happen for Titanic. Unfortunately no way to prove it either way. I'm negative on the trajectory of box office so in that sense I hope Avatar 2 breaks 3B. Gloating and bullcrap aside it's what I want. 1B in China and 3B+ WW

It would not happen in 2019, but I think that's where a lot of misunderstanding and argument occurs.  Adjusting for film gross is never about what a film would do in the now and present, but what a similar sized proportional success would amount to now, in this inflated market, despite numerous factors making it unlikely. 

With that being said though, top 10 films worldwide increasing by 76% from 2008-2018 suggest that effect-heavy hollywood blockbusters are so far immune to the effect of "other factors", seeing they increase at an even faster pace than global box office as a whole. Mid-budget film on the other hand, is what is being impacted.

 

Edited June 30, 2019 by NCsoft

[john2000]

4 minutes ago, juni78ukr said:

Lol. What natural legs? It was already over in so many foreign markets. The run ended with no legs after 7th or 8th weekend.  And this re expansion is for 4 days or for a week. For example Endgame will gross around 63k in Russia today and probably only $3k tomorrow.

nevermind i am tired of explaining

[NCsoft]

5 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

There just not enough of data supporting that people skip blockbusters or VFX/action driven tentpole because of online streaming. More often than not, people skip them because of poor quality and they squeeze out by of higher number of blockbusters offering. 

 

There is evidence to the contrary,  in fact, as I've shown the other day.

From 2008 to 2018, highest 10 grossing films worldwide (all effect heavy blockbusters) increased their average gross by 76%, at a faster growing pace than global market itself.

[John Marston]

Bring down Avatar! Whatever it Takes

Edited June 30, 2019 by John Marston

[Legion Again]

All that, for a drop of blood.     

 

Like @Charlie Jatinder and I were saying, this won’t get it to 2.788B on its own. What it does do is get it a lot closer, so it’s more plausible for some kind of second maneuver to get there if Disney wants to go after this hard.

Edited June 30, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[Hemo memo]

7 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Impossible to answer. Total after 11 days will give an indication of likelyhood to go for it soon. 

So there’s still a chance?