Sam Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 I can see IW playing out like this 3rd Mon-Thu: 18M 4th weekend: 28M (-55%) 4th Mon-Thu: 10M Memorial Day weekend: 16.5M 3-day/21M 4-day 32-day total up to Memorial Day is 625M 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PPZVGOS Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 11 minutes ago, Rebeccas said: Around 17m in China, so that means 9m OS - China. AIW is doing obscenely well in both OS and in China. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sfran43 Posted May 15, 2018 Author Share Posted May 15, 2018 12 minutes ago, Rebeccas said: Around 17m in China, so that means 9m OS - China. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 And it's at about another 13 million in China for Tuesday (if my calculations are right). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LinksterAC Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 Strong Monday number for AIW. If it weren't for BP functioning as a recent comparison, we'd be pretty impressed with its legs coming off a record-breaking opening. AIW isn't playing at capacity any more, so I don't think the loss of screens to DP2's opening will affect it significantly. It's at a natural phase in its run to start shedding screens. There should be plenty of room in the market for both movies, and the hardcore fanboys have had plenty of time to see AIW. They shouldn't be cannibalizing each other at this point. I think it drops a little over 45% to about $34M. That said, I have a hard time seeing how this universally loved film has a worse fourth-weekend drop (-44.2%) than the less popular AOU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sfran43 Posted May 15, 2018 Author Share Posted May 15, 2018 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lordmandeep Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 Should be around 920-930 million overseas this weekend minus china. Looks like 1 billion is happening 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rebeccas Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 Just now, LinksterAC said: Strong Monday number for AIW. If it weren't for BP functioning as a recent comparison, we'd be pretty impressed with its legs coming off a record-breaking opening. AIW isn't playing at capacity any more, so I don't think the loss of screens to DP2's opening will affect it significantly. It's at a natural phase in its run to start shedding screens. There should be plenty of room in the market for both movies, and the hardcore fanboys have had plenty of time to see AIW. They shouldn't be cannibalizing each other at this point. I think it drops a little over 45% to about $34M. That said, I have a hard time seeing how this universally loved film has a worse fourth-weekend drop (-44.2%) than the less popular AOU. AOU's 4th weekend was Memorial Day weekend though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 IW is the first comic book movie to make more than a billion internationally. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LinksterAC Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, Rebeccas said: AOU's 4th weekend was Memorial Day weekend though. Good point. That makes me a lot more comfortable with my $34M prediction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lordmandeep Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, baumer said: IW is the first comic book movie to make more than a billion internationally. I think we all would have been shocked if it did beat Ultron overseas but it will get to around 1.33-1.36 billion overseas, number 3 all-time behind only Titanic and Avatar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 1 minute ago, Lordmandeep said: I think we all would have been shocked if it did beat Ultron overseas but it will get to around 1.33-1.36 billion overseas, number 3 all-time behind only Titanic and Avatar. it looks like it has a chance, but then again, passing Titanic isn't for certain. Most people in the China thread have it finishing at 350 mill, so that's another 135 from China. Probably another 135 in North America. That's puts it at around 1.87 billion. Let's call it 1.9 billion. To pass Titanic, it needs another 287 million. I think that might be a bit much. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 7 minutes ago, LinksterAC said: Good point. That makes me a lot more comfortable with my $34M prediction. Why does that make you more comfortable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 (edited) 12 minutes ago, baumer said: it looks like it has a chance, but then again, passing Titanic isn't for certain. Most people in the China thread have it finishing at 350 mill, so that's another 135 from China. Probably another 135 in North America. That's puts it at around 1.87 billion. Let's call it 1.9 billion. To pass Titanic, it needs another 287 million. I think that might be a bit much. I guess it ends around TFA (or lower, probably at 2B), I doubt it can pass Titanic, because for that it would need strong China legs. As I can't really see it getting another 290M internationally. it had a $82.5M international weekend for 290M it would need a 3.5 Multiplier (without counting the weekend, so if we count this Weekend too it would be 4.5x and that seems to high, way to high) Edited May 15, 2018 by Taruseth 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 1 minute ago, Taruseth said: I guess it ends around TFA, I doubt it can pass Titanic, because for that it would need strong China legs. As I can't really see it getting another 290M internationally. Well, just going by the members in the China forum, 350 is about the max it will hit in China. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMan7 Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 Uh-Oh! It's heading for 2.1B OS. @IronJimbo Road to toppling Avatar continues. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 5 minutes ago, baumer said: Well, just going by the members in the China forum, 350 is about the max it will hit in China. Yeah, I saw that, I just wanted to point out, that it the legs would need to be stronger in China for IW to top Titanic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lordmandeep Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 2 billlion WW is all I want That is just an achievement for the MCU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LinksterAC Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 (edited) 30 minutes ago, Taruseth said: Why does that make you more comfortable? AOU dropped 44% in its fourth frame. I'm guessing $34M this weekend for AIW. For $34M, AIW will have to lose close to 46% of its business from the third weekend. I was scratching my head trying to explain why the most reasonable drop I could think of was worse than the equivalent AOU drop, since AIW is generally exhibiting much better legs. Then @Rebeccas pointed out that AOU's fourth weekend was Memorial Day. Now I have an explanation (and she has a like). Edited May 15, 2018 by LinksterAC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mekanos Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 37 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said: I think we all would have been shocked if it did beat Ultron overseas but it will get to around 1.33-1.36 billion overseas, number 3 all-time behind only Titanic and Avatar. I always expected it to be the first MCU movie to do over a billion overseas... but I didn't expect it to do a billion minus China. That is the nutty part. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
