Weekend Thread....Please read the staff announcement pg 104 (Solo 29.2...DP 23.3...Adrift 11.5)

[Cap]

4 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

Stop talking about the marketing. No one gives a shit about the marketing.

Just looking at that budget, Solo is a disaster.

Disney certainly didn’t. It was their worst campaign in years. 

Edited June 3, 2018 by captainwondyful

[Rebeccas]

Theaters need to stand up to Disney at this point. 65% on Solo is fucking ridiculous lmao

[TalismanRing]

4 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Because up until one week ago, Star Wars was always considered THE franchise of all franchises. It's why Solo's performance is in fact something to make a big deal about. 

Even months ago no one thought Solo would do more than AIW

[Nova]

1 minute ago, TalismanRing said:

Even months ago no one thought Solo would do more than AIW

Yea it's not about the breakdown for a Star Wars movie. It's about the breakdown for THIS particular Star Wars movie. 

[dxmatrixdt]

is Solo contracted to keep all theaters for 3 weeks instead of 2, therefore retaining all 4,381 locations next week??

 

are estimates for Sunday looking to go up by +1-2%, or down.

 

[Mekanos]

There's no way Solo isn't losing bare minimum 100 million with a sub-400 WW performance, even with the 65% take.

[Nova]

5 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

If Disney is really getting 65%, maybe we should start to reconsider how rapidly Solo will lose theaters to other older movies that stay...

Guess that 1,100 theater drop is happening after all 

[NCsoft]

26 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Grace is kind of a meme when it comes to box office, quite honestly. The only YouTubers that actually seem like they understand box office worth a damn are Dan Murrell (his "Charting With Dan" show is actually pretty much on point and I'd recommend anyone from the forum to check it out) and Perri Nemiroff (her weekly top 5 prediction videos show that she knows her box office stuff pretty solidly as well). Jackson Fulcher is also knowledgeable-ish, but he kinda loses himself on being so convict about the old rule of "2x your production budget = success" (which isn't totally true, per say) + not being aware of international rollouts for films that come out in the US a week or more before other major territories (dude, all it takes is to go to fucking IMDB).

I nominate John Campea as the known YouTube film personality least knowledgeable about box office.

[REC]

14 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

Solo doesn't have the 4 week on the biggest screens requirement that TLJ had, but it does have the Disney keeps 65% instead of 50% that TLJ had.
So theaters make less off Solo compared to all the other movies, the less money it makes the more likely theaters will drop the movie.

Yes I been saying this for a little bit as a possibility and I was wondering what their theater contracts look like for Solo.  Success would breed success but failure will breed more failure.  If theaters can back out of showing Solo, they will.  If they can drop it, they will.

 

This will have the effect of throwing off everyone's drop % predictions.  The earnings will be much lower than anyone anticipates.

 

You see the problem with comparing the run of Solo against other movies is, unlike those other movies its often compared to there's no audience demand for this one.  No desire, no sense of essential viewing.  Audiences probably consider AQP more 'essential' than Solo.

 

And why should theaters show it?  They have an IW with longer legs than expected, DP2 is doing good, O8 is coming out, the summer lineup is starting and there are plenty of smaller gems happening.  I'm telling you guys, Solo is not going to hit 200m Dom.

[dxmatrixdt]

is Solo the most expensive films ever made?

[Mekanos]

65% of 200M DOM: 130M

40% of 150M OS: 60M

 

190M total revenue for Disney against a production budget of 250-300M, no marketing included. It makes you wonder if reshooting was worth it considering it would still need to clear a ton of checkpoints to be out of the red... but hey, Star Wars is a sure thing, right?

[NCsoft]

1 minute ago, Thematrixfilm said:

is Solo the most expensive films ever made?

According to Wikipedia, that would be Pirates 4, which is really strange.

[MovieMan89]

11 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Even months ago no one thought Solo would do more than AIW

Maybe so, but the franchise as a whole was likely still viewed as more infalliable than MCU as a whole. Hence why Disney May have had an easier time negotiating such deals for an SW film. Franchise name and rep means a lot. Solo just damaged that severely.

[REC]

Just now, Mekanos said:

65% of 200M DOM: 130M

40% of 150M OS: 60M

 

190M total revenue for Disney against a production budget of 250-300M, no marketing included. It makes you wonder if reshooting was worth it considering it would still need to clear a ton of checkpoints to be out of the red... but hey, Star Wars is a sure thing, right?

They're easily losing 200m on Solo and that's probably lowballing it.  I don't see how toys and netflix streaming will make up the difference.  Even with all the other ways to monetize this movie there has to be a giant gaping money hole here.

[Amadeus]

Worst first weekend of june since 2000. With 99m its 3m better than first weekend of june year 2000 when MI:2 was no 1 for its 4th straight weekend. 2018 is going south

[dxmatrixdt]

Movie Math on youtube...

 

[dxmatrixdt]

5 minutes ago, REC said:

They're easily losing 200m on Solo and that's probably lowballing it.  I don't see how toys and netflix streaming will make up the difference.  Even with all the other ways to monetize this movie there has to be a giant gaping money hole here.

 

yeah but they can afford it.  its probably why they cancelled Tron 2

[Rebeccas]

Who's gonna buy toys for a movie they didnt see?

[Barnack]

2 minutes ago, Amadeus said:

Worst first weekend of june since 2000. With 99m its 3m better than first weekend of june year 2000 when MI:2 was no 1 for its 4th straight weekend. 2018 is going south

Incredible 2 and Jurassic World 2 1-2 punch will really rapidly change that.

[MovieMan89]

8 minutes ago, NCsoft said:

According to Wikipedia, that would be Pirates 4, which is really strange.

The Pirates sequels are notorious for their huge budgets. They’re basically what kickstarted Disney throwing 200+ at every tentpole without even thinking.